The Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged.
However, Australia Finacial Review’s John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call.
If the RBA cuts...
Finally, an investment idea! (after how much doom and gloom?) — Novo Nordisk.
You will all be familiar with Ozempic, the Danish company’s flagship product and the reason so many celebrities, influencers, b listers and regular schmegular Americans are suddenly skinny. I ignored the stock for most of ‘23/24, because it was so expensive. I am still a value investor...
President Donald Trump has just signed a sweeping reciprocal tariff plan. The directive instructs the U.S. to develop new levies on a country-by-country basis but stopped short of implementing any immediate levies.
The Dow reached an intraday high after the market realized the reciprocal tariff process could take weeks or months. In forex, the biggest gainers...
The euro surged to session highs after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed to visit each other and initiate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that peace talks would begin “immediately.”
Technically, the euro rebounded from downtrend support, keeping...
I am going to embarrass myself here and tell you that I did not know that PVH was a listed company, and it owns Calvin Klein! D’oh!
They also own Tommy Hilfiger. You may think of CK as mostly a marketer of bras, underwear and so on. But for a while they were a force in American fashion — a kind of utilitarian, Carolyn Bassette-Kennedy vision of sporty chic. They...
Spot gold peaked at $2,942.76 early Tuesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.
Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to keep interest rates unchanged as inflation remains elevated and the job market stays strong. Addressing recent policy changes, including Trump’s tariffs, he noted that interest rates are “well positioned...
Investor risk appetite is picking up as the new week gets going. There were some initial jitters in Asia, but cooler heads have prevailed for now. Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remains a key focus for the market.
The latest announcement from Trump includes a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. from all countries. He has also stated that...
Gold has surged past $2,900 for the first time, marking its seventh record high this year, following Trump’s announcement of fresh tariffs.
On Sunday, Trump unveiled plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. While such tariffs could fuel inflation—typically a headwind for gold—the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is...
Markets are already showing signs of recovery after the sharp risk-off gap lower. The market selloff around tariffs appears overstated, likely exacerbated by thin trading conditions.
Recent U.S. tariff actions could be scaled back as negotiations progress, and markets tend to fill open gaps. The Canadian dollar saw significant weakness, hitting its lowest level...
In what could be the beginning of a trade war, China's retaliatory import taxes on certain U.S. goods are set to take effect on Monday.
Beijing has imposed a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, along with a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and pickup trucks. It has also introduced export controls on 25 rare metals critical to...
GBP volatility hinges on rate cuts and tariffs
The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates this week, balancing the need to support slowing growth against the risk of renewed inflation.
A 25bp cut is largely priced in, but Goldman Sachs anticipates gradual GBP weakness rather than an immediate sharp decline, though a more dovish stance could pose...
Markets are already showing signs of recovery after the sharp risk-off gap lower. The market selloff around tariffs appears overstated, likely exacerbated by thin trading conditions.
Recent U.S. tariff actions could be scaled back as negotiations progress, and markets tend to fill open gaps. The Canadian dollar saw significant weakness, hitting its lowest level...
EURUSD braces for U.S. tariff threat
Tariff developments continue to drive market volatility, with new headlines emerging daily.
On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that tariffs on the European Union were inevitable. In response, EU leaders indicated they are prepared to retaliate if the U.S. imposes new tariffs on European goods.
This follows...
Fidelity Digital Assets recently published a report predicting more nation-states, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves. Countries, including Russia, Brazil, and Poland are called out in the report but it is suggested that governments may choose to buy discreetly to avoid influencing prices.
Last week, ECB President...
The FED decision has come and gone, and in the end, no major surprises. As expected, the central bank left rates on hold, with most of the market reaction coming from the Fed chair presser.
Jerome Powell gave something to everyone, leaving the net results rather balanced. On one side, he said the central bank was in no rush to cut rates, fueling hawkish sentiment...
Gold has reached a new record high price, surpassing the November peak by approximately $10 at the time of writing.
Political uncertainty in the U.S., particularly concerning trade policy, is fueling the rally. Reports indicate that the Trump administration is "not close at all to making a decision" on China tariffs. Meanwhile, Beijing has signaled flexibility...
US durable goods and consumer confidence data came in softer on Tuesday but did nothing to prevent the US dollar from rallying. In the end, everything has come down to tariff talk out of the US government, and with the Trump Administration continuing to talk tough on tariffs, the US dollar is the natural play.
It is also worth noting that many market participants...
Will Trump replace Powell as Fed Chair?
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged in its first meeting of the year, but markets are watching for Donald Trump’s response.
Last week, Trump demanded the Fed lower interest rates and talked about how he was more qualified to set interest rates for the country. While he has no direct authority over rate...
