Inauguration Week: Opportunities in Stocks, Forex, and Crypto
Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, marks the start of a new chapter for markets, with potential volatility from incoming executive orders.
Cryptocurrency
On January 17, 2025, Donald Trump surprised the industry by launching a meme cryptocurrency, $TRUMP, which has already reached a...
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its first policy meeting of the year next week, with markets pricing in a 90% likelihood of a rate hike on January 24.
Last year, BoJ rate hikes contributed to the Yen carry trade unwind in early August, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline to $49,000.
This week, the Japanese yen strengthened toward 155.5 per dollar, its highest...
The US dollar is lower across the board, taking hits from news of a less aggressive Trump tariff plan and softer US producer prices.
The Yen has found additional demand after the Bank of Japan Governor made hawkish comments, leaving the door open for another BOJ rate hike as early as this month.
In the UK, softer inflation data prevented the pound from...
The self-styled crypto Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20 could trigger a major Bitcoin rally, with rumors of executive orders aimed at boosting the crypto sector.
Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark after rising over 2% in the last 24 hours.
Some analysts also believe government support could reduce the reputational risk for public...
Swiss franc to outshine euro and pound?
The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar could present both opportunities and challenges for European currencies.
In a note to clients on Monday, George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's global head of FX research, expressed a bearish outlook on both the euro and the British pound. However, he was optimistic about the Swiss...
Analytics firm Glassnode has issued a warning that Bitcoin is possible nearing the end of its bull market.
Glassnode is monitoring Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost basis, a key metric representing the average acquisition price of BTC held for less than 155 days. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin usually transitions into bearish territory when its price...
Deutsche Bank FX strategist Vice President Shreyas Gopal has shifted to a bearish stance on the British pound.
The pound fell nearly 2% against a strong US dollar last week, hitting a 14-month low of $1.2200. Unlike the dip in November 2024, following the UK budget, Gopal does not see this decline as a buying opportunity. "We favor selling GBP against a basket...
The GBPUSD has fallen to levels last seen in November 2023, driven by surging UK borrowing costs. The yield on the UK 10-year gilt has surged to its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Although U.S. tariff policy announcements have had some influence, the rise in UK bond yields is largely attributed to domestic factors. Conservative MPs have...
Bitcoin appears to be moving in tandem with US tech stocks, posting falls and recoveries along a similar timeline.
The 92K level has now been tested on six separate occasions since price first exceeded $100,000, suggesting a potential base. Some market participants believe that further clarity on political factors—including Trump-related issues, tariffs, and a...
Gold surged by over $20 amid reports of China continuing to accumulate reserves and uncertainty around President-elect Donald Trump’s conflicting signals and tariff policies.
However, the metal has since retraced some of those gains following the release of the latest U.S. job openings data, which hit a six-month high at 8.098 million. Currently, Gold remains up...
We suspected it might be the case, and as post-holiday trading conditions resume, we're seeing a reversal of flow with healthy profit-taking on long US dollar exposure. A story from the Washington Post is also gaining attention and potentially factoring into the flow. It was reported that President-elect Trump may be considering a universal tariff plan, less...
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly expected to announce his resignation this week, with Reuters suggesting the announcement could come as early as today.
Trudeau's departure would leave the Liberal Party without a permanent leader, as polls indicate the party is at risk of a significant loss to the opposition Conservatives in an election...
The commodity block currencies have been hit hard of late and are once again extending declines to multi-month lows against the US dollar. We're seeing clear divergence in monetary policy outlooks with deteriorating economic data in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada weighing on the respective currencies, while the added risk of trade wars only makes things that...
UBS forecasts gold prices to reach $2,900/oz by the end of 2025, driven by central bank demand, increased investor interest, and a lower interest rate environment. UBS projects central bank purchases of 900 metric tons or more in 2025 as part of ongoing reserve diversification efforts.
From a technical perspective, the 100 and 200 weekly Simple Moving Averages...
As we come into the North American open, the US dollar remains in the driver's seat and is up pretty much across the board. Dollar demand is also found company in US equity futures, pointing to a lower open. But overall, with stocks trading just off record highs, the setbacks aren't anything to write home about.
Euro weakness can be attributed to the lowest...
Since the beginning of 2024, cocoa futures have more than doubled in price and are currently climbing for the seventh week in a row, hitting record levels. The mix of limited supply, high demand, and uncertain weather is keeping the cocoa market unpredictable. Analysts at ING expect prices to stay volatile through next year.
Coffee has also seen a big price jump...
Solid preliminary PMI data out of the Euro area helped to keep the Euro supported into dips, though overall we haven't seen much activity in markets so far on Monday. ECB President Lagarde commented that domestic inflation remains too high, but price momentum in the services sector has dropped steeply recently. Euro gains from the economic data were also offset by...
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is now under a caretaker government.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the Bundestag on Monday, paving the way for a snap election in February.
Key issues in the upcoming campaign are expected to include the war in Ukraine, the financial demands of strengthening Germany’s military, a struggling economy,...
