Investors have been less and less affected by President Trump's talk on trade, something that has helped to bolster risk appetite and open a wave of US dollar outflows. Currencies and broader risk markets have also been feeling better about a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, though clearly, there's still a lot more work that needs to get done...
Polls have now closed in Germany’s parliamentary elections.
Exit polls indicate Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has secured a clear victory, positioning him as Germany’s next chancellor.
The far-right AfD is projected to achieve its best result yet, currently in second place with 20.2%, nearly doubling its 2021 support. However,...
Morgan Stanley and MUFG both see the Japanese yen as the strongest G10 currency in 2025. They expect it to gain value as U.S. interest rates fall and Japan’s central bank raises its own.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY oscillators are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance could to the downside.
MUFG predicts...
The market is clearly becoming less nervous about headlines around tariffs. President Trump was on the wires talking about 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical products, and the market took it all in stride rather than panicking as we had seen weeks back. There is a clearer understanding that all of this is much more about strategy and...
The United States and Russia recently held peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine’s participation. Russian officials did not mention offering any concessions and U.S. officials did not claim to have scored any in Tuesday's meeting.
Adding to the unseriousness of the talks, Donald Trump called Zelensky a “dictator,” and suggested that Ukraine is responsible...
Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. The accompanying communication leaned to the hawkish side with respect to the outlook on future rate cuts, which kept the Australian dollar propped up. As for Fed rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in 40 basis points of cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, risk...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
Now, I do not think Brown Forman will return to 32x earnings anytime soon — if ever — but if you even half the implied return from multiple expansion you still have plenty of upside.
Ditto Remy — I do not...
Six weeks ago, a Conservative victory in the next Canadian election seemed inevitable.
Now, that certainty is fading. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's support from the American right, including Elon Musk, is becoming a potential liability as Canada faces an unprecedented challenge: the U.S. president openly questioning its viability as a nation,...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
You know my favourite stocks are luxury stocks, and they’ve had a hard last year. Richemont and Moncler were the clear standouts from the most recent season (both grew sales), while Brunello did well too....
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged.
However, Australia Finacial Review’s John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call.
If the RBA cuts...
Finally, an investment idea! (after how much doom and gloom?) — Novo Nordisk.
You will all be familiar with Ozempic, the Danish company’s flagship product and the reason so many celebrities, influencers, b listers and regular schmegular Americans are suddenly skinny. I ignored the stock for most of ‘23/24, because it was so expensive. I am still a value investor...
President Donald Trump has just signed a sweeping reciprocal tariff plan. The directive instructs the U.S. to develop new levies on a country-by-country basis but stopped short of implementing any immediate levies.
The Dow reached an intraday high after the market realized the reciprocal tariff process could take weeks or months. In forex, the biggest gainers...
The euro surged to session highs after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed to visit each other and initiate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that peace talks would begin “immediately.”
Technically, the euro rebounded from downtrend support, keeping...
I am going to embarrass myself here and tell you that I did not know that PVH was a listed company, and it owns Calvin Klein! D’oh!
They also own Tommy Hilfiger. You may think of CK as mostly a marketer of bras, underwear and so on. But for a while they were a force in American fashion — a kind of utilitarian, Carolyn Bassette-Kennedy vision of sporty chic. They...
Spot gold peaked at $2,942.76 early Tuesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.
Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to keep interest rates unchanged as inflation remains elevated and the job market stays strong. Addressing recent policy changes, including Trump’s tariffs, he noted that interest rates are “well positioned...
Investor risk appetite is picking up as the new week gets going. There were some initial jitters in Asia, but cooler heads have prevailed for now. Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remains a key focus for the market.
The latest announcement from Trump includes a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. from all countries. He has also stated that...
Gold has surged past $2,900 for the first time, marking its seventh record high this year, following Trump’s announcement of fresh tariffs.
On Sunday, Trump unveiled plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. While such tariffs could fuel inflation—typically a headwind for gold—the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is...
Markets are already showing signs of recovery after the sharp risk-off gap lower. The market selloff around tariffs appears overstated, likely exacerbated by thin trading conditions.
Recent U.S. tariff actions could be scaled back as negotiations progress, and markets tend to fill open gaps. The Canadian dollar saw significant weakness, hitting its lowest level...
