Gold extended its rally on Monday as mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September fueled demand for the safe-haven asset. Powell gave the green light on interest rate cuts during his speech at Jackson Hole last Friday.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed Powell, saying “It's hard to imagine anything could derail a September rate...
Jackson Hole Aftermath Sparks 25 or 50bps Debate
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut in September during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday. In response, the British pound surged over 1%, climbing above $1.322, its highest level since March 2022. Meanwhile, the USD/MXN dropped more than 2%, and the NZD/USD and AUD/USD pairs...
The euro surged to its highest level in a year yesterday, marking a fourth consecutive day of gains, before turning red.
This rally suggests growing market confidence that the eurozone may avoid a hard landing. Recent data supports this sentiment: final inflation figures for July show core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, holding steady...
R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
R2 0.6753 – 21 August high– Medium
S1 0.6637 – 19 August low– Medium
S2 0.6563 – 15 August low – Strong
This week's RBA Minutes came out confirming the recent more hawkish leaning RBA decision. The central bank hinted at the fact that the cash rate would stay where it is for an extended period of time, while the...
The dollar is under pressure, with persistent selling pressure driving it to new yearly lows across several currencies, including the pound.
A recent revision of jobs data revealed that U.S. job growth was significantly weaker than initially reported, with 818,000 fewer jobs added (for the year ending March 2024). This huge downward adjustment, the largest since...
Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give?
Credit Agricole anticipates a potential rally in USD/JPY this week, hinging on market reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming address at Jackson Hole. The bank suggests that traders might need to recalibrate their expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Current market sentiment, as reflected in the CME...
Investors will be watching a series of key Asian central bank decisions and inflation reports this week, as regional currencies rally to annual highs.
The Bank of Korea is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday, followed by inflation data from Japan and Singapore on Friday.
The U.S. dollar's slide resumed from last week, with markets embracing a risk-on...
Market sentiment is leaning towards three more rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, while economists are more cautious, expecting just two. Should the economists be correct, 2023’s high for the EUR/USD pair could be back in play.
The market's confidence in ECB rate cuts outpaces that in the Federal Reserve. The Fed, facing closer scrutiny,...
Traders will next hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The key question hanging over the market: Will Powell use this speech to pave the way for a potential interest rate cut in September?
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, argues that Powell should take...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the New Zealand dollar plunging by 1% against the U.S. dollar. The move caught markets off guard, as most analysts had anticipated the central bank would hold rates steady until at least its next meeting. Today wasn’t supposed to be the day, but these are the moments...
AUD/USD Eyes Key Data After Breaking 0.6600
The AUD/USD extended its rally passed the critical 0.6600 mark to hit new three-week highs. Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations and Unemployment.
The pair faces immediate resistance at the 200-day moving average, followed by the 0.668 level. On the downside,...
R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium
S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium
We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question...
As gold aims to test record high again, let's look at some of the political issues possibly driving the price action.
Iran Tensions Escalate:
The Pentagon has dispatched a guided missile submarine and a carrier strike group, to the Middle East. This move follows Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last...
Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?
US CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI report is expected to confirm a continuation of the disinflationary trend observed in recent months. Analysts predict the annual inflation rate to edge down to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate is likely to decelerate to 3.2%.
This ongoing cooling of inflation...
GBPUSD – technical overview
Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.
R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong
R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
...
NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week
ANZ anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain its current interest rates at the August 14 meeting but may signal potential rate cuts before the year ends. Although ANZ estimates a small 10-15% chance that the RBNZ might shift to an easing bias during this coming meeting.
Markets are...
Gold has slipped below the $2,400 mark even as geopolitical tensions possibly escalate, with Israel bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. US intelligence indicates the response could come late Thursday or Friday.
Market attention is also directed towards the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims data, due on Thursday, which investors hope will provide further...
Mexico's inflation data will be released Thursday morning, closely followed by the Central Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision in the afternoon.
July's headline inflation in Mexico is expected to have accelerated to its highest level in over a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core index is anticipated to continue its moderation.
Rising...
