The British pound has staged an impressive 18% rebound since its September's lows and is now entering a pivotal week given the upcoming Fed's (Wednesday) and BoE's (Thursday) meetings.
Even though the latest signs of economic activity are mostly better or in line with expectations, they actually show that the economy is slowing down and that a recession is...
Gold continues to hover around the 1,800-mark level, currently testing a multiple resistance zone, which includes the major 200DMA at 1,790, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 lows to highs and the December high at 1,810.
The recent gold rally has been supported by a weaker USD, therefore the US CPI and FOMC meeting next week will provide...
The recent price action in the daily natural gas price chart updated to December 5, 2022, saw prices falling rapidly and breaking below the supports of two moving averages (50dma and 200dma) and some key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 50% retracement of the post-Ukraine war rally to August highs.
The two moving averages earlier created a death-cross...
A very robust US labour market data released on Friday shocked equity markets, which had surged in the aftermath of Powell's speech confirming a slower pace of rises in December.
Non-farm payrolls ( NFPs ) came in at 263k, which was significantly higher than the 200k that had been anticipated, and average hourly wages rose 5.1% y/y, well above the 4.6% expected....
The German Dax index rose 25% from its lows in early October, delivering nine weeks of gains and outperforming US stock indices. The bullish price action has been rather sharp for a market that had a 27% decline from its top in the first nine months of the year.
In November 2022, the Dax saw overbought RSI for the first time in over a year and the index also...
The Japanese yen was the strongest performing currency this week, rising about 4% against the US dollar, with USD/JPY plunging below 134 to levels not seen since mid-August.
Two favourable fundamental developments have fueled the yen's strength:
a) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that US interest rates might be hiked more slowly starting in December,...
The oil market has seen a lot of activity, with recent developments mostly easing worries about market tightness.
In China, Covid-related restrictions have been reinstalled in major cities, triggering rare protests and consequently reducing outlook for oil consumption, in striking contrast to perceived moves to reopen the economy at the beginning of November.
On...
The release of the November FOMC minutes, which were more dovish than anticipated since a large majority of Fed officials judged that a decrease in the pace of the fed funds rate increase would likely be appropriate soon, sent gold prices surging beyond $1,750/oz once again.
The early stages of the formation of a bull flag pattern can be seen on the gold 4-hour...
Finally unveiled, the UK government's Autumn Budget was conservative and cautious, in line with market expectations.
A fiscal consolidation of £55 billion has been announced, to be split evenly between more taxes and lower spending. From the next year until 2028, windfall taxes on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, while the Energy Price...
The S&P 500 ( US 500 ) has experienced a remarkable 15% rally since its lows on October 13. This was the second bear market rally in 2022, after the US stock market officially entered a bear market in May.
If we are currently undergoing a two-month bear market rally similar to the one saw last summer, the S&P 500 index is expected to peak at about 4,050 points on...
DXY fundamental analysis
The dollar tumbled after US consumer inflation data fell more than expected in October.
Annual headline inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY fell to 7.7% in October, from 8.2% the previous month and below the 8% predicted. The core measure of inflation ECONOMICS:USCIR , which excludes volatile energy and food costs, fell to 6.3% from 6.6%,...
The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing...
The federal funds rate was increased by 75 basis points at the FOMC meeting in November to a range of 3.75 and 4%, as widely expected.
The press conference of Chairman Jerome Powell was more hawkish than imagined. The Fed Chair remarked that there is still work to be done in terms of rate hikes and that the peak of interest rates would be higher than previously...
To strip out the effects of the Fed we can take a look at the moves in AUD/NZD, both bolstered by risk-on sentiment. In this pair, the 25bps hike from the RBA is clearly seen as the bank underdelivering on its mandate to bring inflation back to its 2% target, a clear divergence from the RBNZ so far. The bank is due to meet on November 23rd and markets are...
Silver is in the midst of a bear market rally, up 8% in the last two weeks and 13% since the end-of-August lows.
Although silver prices are still 23% below the peak reached in March, recent price movements suggest that silver is attempting to make a trend reversal at these levels.
Slowing market pricing for Fed interest rates next year has prompted the rally...
Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which...
China A50 index ( CN50 ), a measure of the Chinese onshore market that keeps track of 50 of the biggest Chinese A-share companies listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges, broke a major upward trend that had been in place since 2016.
The technical picture sees the A50 index currently dominated by a descending channel pattern, having fallen 42% from its...
Copper prices may remain under pressure in the coming months due to investors' apprehension about China's growth prospects in the wake of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which disappointed the market.
Since September, copper prices have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range (3.2-3.6) after the earlier sharp declines occurred this...
