USD/CAD fundamental analysis
A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid...
Silver has risen by 11% in the last two weeks. This performance comes after losing about 30% since March 8, indicating a so-called bear-market rally.
The main macro driver behind the silver price recovery has been a sharp drop in US bond yields, with the 1 0-year yield falling to 3-month lows at 2.6%, its lowest level since April, as the market...
The yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow.
The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy,...
GBP/USD update
The cable (GBP/USD) rose to 1.226, smashing the 50-day moving average for the first time since early February 2022, as speculators increased their expectations for a 50 basis point BoE rate hike this week, which would be the largest interest rate increase in 27 years, pushing borrowing costs to 1.75%, the highest level since 2009.
With UK...
The Japanese yen rose to 133 against the dollar ( USD/JPY ), recovering from its 24-year lows.
Short-term tailwinds are supporting the yen as the market has repriced Fed interest rate risks to the downside and has already priced in a rate cut in the first half of 2023. The yen is currently doing well in its traditional role as a recession hedge, with the US...
Gold prices reacted positively to the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates by a full percentage point in July.
First and foremost, the reduction in expectations of future rate hikes due to concerns about a recession in early 2023 drove gold above $1,740 per troy ounce. The expectations of lower rates in 2023 also weakened the US dollar, as...
Following the Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a back-to-back 75-basis-point rate hike to 2.25-2.5% ( USINTR ), S&P 500 index broke above 4,000 points, marking a 2.6% daily gain, as market expectations pointed to a halt in rate hikes at the end of the year, and a rate cut in the first half of next year.
A window for a "bear market rally" in the S&P 500...
USD/HUF technical analysis
The worst-performing currency today is the Hungarian forint, down by more than 1% on the day against the USD ( USD/HUF ), as Russian gas disruptions fuelled selling pressures on Central Eastern European currencies.
The latest candlesticks analysis provides a strong bullish signal generated by the three white soldiers pattern. This...
The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month.
After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses.
What's going on in the natural gas market?
Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1)...
The Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%.
To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which...
The UK July PMIs show a slowing in the rate of expansion in both the service and manufacturing sectors. The UK Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 53.3 in July, down from 54.3 in June, hitting a 17-month low. The manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom fell to 52.2 from 54.3 in June, reaching a 25-month low.
Capacity constraints due to a lack of...
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point at its July 2022 meeting, the first hike in eleven years, terminating eight years of negative rates and speeding up efforts to return to the medium-term inflation objective of 2%. The ECB also hinted that it will keep raising interest rates at its next meetings, using a data-dependent...
Ten years after rescuing the euro with the iconic "Whatever it takes", Mario Draghi resigns as Italian Prime Minister, as the political parties that formed his majority no longer backed him.
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election reigns supreme, and the political crisis in Italy risks putting further downward pressure on the Italian FTSE MIB (...
During its July meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted 8-1 to keep its key short-term interest rate ( JPINTR ) at -0.1% and 10-year bond yields ( JP10Y ) around 0%.
However, it lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2022 from 2.9% in April to 2.4%, mentioning slowing global growth and problems with the supply chain caused by the long war in Ukraine. On top of that,...
Henry Hub ( US natural gas ) prices have fallen 25% from their peak of $9.64 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) hit in June, as the fire at Freeport LNG’s natural gas liquefaction plant reduced U.S. export capacity by an estimated 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) or approximately 15% of annual volumes.
The major driver behind the spectacular rise in...
The US dollar shows no signs of rebound following a three-day losing streak, with EUR/USD breaking above the 1.02 barrier yesterday and surging to 1.024 as of this writing, boosted by rising speculation of a half-percentage point hike at tomorrow’s ECB meeting.
The case for a hawkish half-point increase has gathered traction over the past hours following...
The dollar index ( DXY ) fell to 106.3 (-0.7% on the day), its lowest level since July 6th, as traders reduced expectations for a full percentage point rate rise by the Federal Reserve next week and risk appetite returned.
Fed interest rate futures now price in a 75-basis-point-hike in the next FOMC meeting with a 67% probability, according to the latest CME...
The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes, which opened the door to more interest rate hikes, may provide only marginal support to the Australian dollar when compared to the US dollar ( AUD/USD ).
Stronger global economic growth, a Chinese industrial recovery, more risk appetite among investors, and widespread gains in commodity prices are required for...
