GBP/USD continued the pullback in early-trade this morning, with a bounce showing two pips above the psychological 1.3000 level. This could remain as an area of interest for USD-weakness scenarios, but bulls aren't out of the woods yet, as prior support from 1.3050-1.3058 presents an opportunity for sellers to show a lower-high.
If that happens - reading the...
GBP/USD trades back below 1.31 after disappointing UK GDP figures. Ongoing stagnation brings headwinds for Chancellor Reeves ahead of the Budget next month. USD weakness keeps the pair supported.
After running into resistance at 1.3265, GBP/USD has fallen lower, taking out the 1.3140 July 2023 high and testing the 20 SMA around 1.31. The pair continues to trade...
NZD/USD bears keep testing .6133 without much success, much like the bulls did earlier this year. If we see another failed attempt today, my inclination will be to buy given the price signal.
Longs could be initiated above the figure with a stop below Monday’s low of .6125 for protection. The price has done a bit of work either side of .61783 recently, making...
USD/CHF cleared the January low (0.8401) earlier this month to register a fresh yearly low (0.8375), but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be diverging with price as it holds above 30.
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
The recent rebound in USD/CHF may end up short-lived as it appears to be tracking the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.8700), with a breach...
Oil prices broke below key support last week and has now cleared the 2023 consolidation pattern. Broader technical outlook remains weighted to the downside while within this formation.
Initial support hurdles here at the 2020 high at 65.62 and the 2023 swing low at 63.62 - both levels of interest for possible price inflection.
Initial resistance now back at the...
Gold has put in a massive move since the current rally began last October and since the March breakout there hasn't been much for pullbacks. It was quite range-bound in Q2 but buyers continued to hold the line, continuing to build support at the 2300 level until eventually another breakout showed to test the next major psychological level-up at 2500.
Since then...
We're nearing an important driver for the USD with tomorrow's release of US CPI and expectations are high, with markets looking for headline CPI to move down to 2.6% from a prior read of 2.9%. For Core CPI, the expectation is for the same 3.2% that printed last month and that's where there could be scope for some additional USD-weakness should the data print below...
There's been a clear change-of-pace in trend for AUD/JPY over the past two months, but much of the carry trade that had built in the prior three-plus years remains in-play. As a matter of fact, the 23.6% retracement of that move is a big level with a bit of confluence as taken from the 38.2% retracement of the more recent sell-off.
This sets up for a big test...
EUR/USD sellers have stalled ahead of a re-test of the 1.1000 level, which notably hasn't been tested as support since the breakout last month.
The next week will be particularly interesting as tomorrow's US CPI report leads into Thursday's ECB, and then the week after brings the Fed with their first expected rate cut of this cycle.
The 1.1000 level is...
While the US Dollar has technically set a fresh yearly low, sellers were unable to get much run below the Dec 2023 swing low of 100.62. That price has since stalled the sell-off with support holding the line for the past few weeks. Given the upcoming CPI report and the FOMC rate decision next week, this could change, of course, but at this stage there's also an...
ASX 200 SPI futures and bullish moves above 8000 haven’t mixed well in 2024, resulting in a raft of failed breaks, long topside wicks and topping patterns. It’s akin to a “death zone” for bulls, starving rallies of oxygen before eventually reversing.
I’m not outright bearish just because we’re back above the level, especially when momentum indicators are...
USD/MXN may threaten the opening range for September as it struggles to test the August high (20.2271).
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
USD/MXN continues to pull back from the monthly high (20.1496) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, with a break/close below the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the...
USD/CAD has drifted lower today, suggesting that investors are not too alarmed by the jobless rate rising to a 7 year high of 6.6% as we found out on Friday. Last week saw the BoC cut rates for the third time in as many meetings. Investors are expecting a couple of more cuts before the year is out, particular if the jobs data shows further weakness. However, this...
Looking at the chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the world’s reserve currency remains in a well-defined downtrend despite last week’s bounce. The near-term reaction in the US dollar will likely follow the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Fed (bullish) vs. 50bps rate cut (bearish) as outlined in the chart above, but ultimately, the dominant downtrend and...
The US dollar continues to fall across the board, especially against haven currencies like the Japanese yen. But it is also weaker against the more high beta currencies too, despite the ongoing struggles in the stock markets. The NZD/USD stands ready to benefit from the weakening US dollar, especially in the event we see calm return to stocks.
The NZD/USD has...
The Fed has made it clear that a further weakening in US labour market would be unwelcome, especially if it leads to a sharp increase in unemployment. With leading indicators continuing to deteriorate, and given the Fed thinks policy is already very restrictive, the risk of the FOMC kicking off its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut looks underpriced. It could...
EUR/USD is setting the monthly opening-range just above yearly-open support at 1.1038 . Looking for possible inflection off this mark.
A break below the median-line would threaten a larger bull-market correction towards the January high-day close (HDC) / 38.2% retracement at 1.0942/72 - losses would need to be limited to this threshold for the April rally to...
The price of oil clears the June low (69.42) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The selloff in the price of oil may persist as it trades to a fresh weekly low ($68.95), with a break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the February low ($66.60).
Next area of interest comes in around...
