The recovery in US small caps has been unconvincing over the past fortnight, struggling for upside unlike mega-cap rivals. Russell 2000 futures have been capped below the 50-day moving average for much of this period, running into sellers constantly above this level. Wednesday’s rejection above 2132.6 warns of building reversal risk, putting a potential break of...
The recent rebound in GBP/JPY appears to be stalling as it struggles to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows.
GBP/JPY Outlook
Keep in mind, GBP/JPY reversed ahead of the January low (178.74) to pull the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory, and the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from the monthly high (193.26) as...
The AUD/USD has found a bit of resistance around the 0.6640/0.6650 area ahead of the release of US CPI shortly.
The small pullback is largely due to profit-taking ahead of US inflation data and Australian employment data due for release in the early hours of Thursday. The underlying trend is bullish and so long as we don't see a hot inflation report from the US,...
NZD/USD has reversed the downside break sparked by US recession fears, smashing through the downtrend it had been trading in since early June on Tuesday. With RSI and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, risks are skewing towards further gains ahead of today’s RBNZ interest rate decision.
While economists are evenly split on whether the bank will cut...
USD/MXN seems to be consolidating within the opening range for August as it struggles to extend the advance from the start of the week, but the exchange rate may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (18.3576) should it continue to hold above the moving average.
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
Keep in the mind, the decline from the monthly high (20.2271) pulled the...
The GBP/USD climbed above the 1.28 handle after today's release of a weaker US PPI report caused a mild drop in the dollar. Earlier we had mixed-bag UK employment data helping to lift the pound across the board.
The GBP/USD pair will be facing more tests later this week with CPI inflation and retail sales data to come from both sides of the pond. In recent days,...
The price of oil stages a four-day rally after defending the February low ($71.41) to register a fresh monthly high ($80.16).
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Keep in mind, the rebound from the monthly low ($71.67) kept the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory, with $80.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar as crude pushes above the opening...
It has been a positive day so far for precious metals with gold and silver both rising thanks to an improving risk appetite following the mini turmoil last Monday.
Gold's ability to surpass the shaded grey zone on the chart, which ranges from $2431 to $2450 and represents the highs from April and May, indicates that a new all-time high above July's peak of $2483...
GBP/USD is testing the top of its 4-week bearish channel.
One tool that traders can use to help handicap when a trend may break is the RSI indicator. In this case, the 14-period RSI on GBP/USD’s 4-hour chart has been stuck in a well-defined range between 30-50 since shortly after the bearish channel formed, signaling consistent, but not excessive, bearish...
Silver's bullish engulfing candle on Thursday may have marked the end of the corrective phase for the metal, potentially paving the way for a new bull trend.
On Thursday, XAGUSD found strong support from the area around $26.50, where it had taken off in May. It is essential that it now finds some follow-through on the upside.
An ideal scenario for the bulls...
Look at the latest weekly candle. Yes, it’s incomplete, but what a turnaround from where we were on Monday. As of the time of writing, it’s a big bullish pin. Unless we see a major reversal to finish the week, that’s a strong signal that we may see further upside ahead.
I say this because when you look at the price action, so many patterns on the weekly...
Turn-around in USDJPY after the sizable sell-off continued through this week's open.
Been a lot of remarks about how much of the carry trade has unwound, with one major bank saying first 50% had been unwound, and then 75%.
Since FX is de-centralized, coming up with an accurate statistic here could be challenging as that level of data does not exist. The best...
Financial markets are significantly more stable today. Major indices have rebounded, with all posting gains, especially the Japanese Nikkei, thanks to reassuring remarks from the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan yesterday. This optimism has spread across global equity markets, Bitcoin, and metal prices. Furthermore, better-than-anticipated US jobless claims...
S&P 500 E-minis have absorbed plenty of selling over the past few sessions but are yet to take the lows struck on Monday. While that doesn’t mean they won’t, it looks like futures may be settling into a new sideways range between 5350 on the topside and 5154 on the downside. Granted, the latter is only a minor level that was breached in the peak of the market puke...
USD/CHF appears to be defending the January low (0.8401) as it extends the rebound from the monthly low (0.8433), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above 30 to indicate a buy signal.
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF snaps the recent series of lower highs and lows as it trades to a fresh weekly high (0.8662), with a breach above 0.8700 (61.8%...
Central banks captivate traders across the world because of their immense importance: they are the institutions responsible for managing a nation's monetary system. One change by a major central bank can send markets moving by directly impacting the cost to borrow and the value of money within a nation. Most recently, the Bank of Japan's decision to hike interest...
Though the EUR/USD is currently constrained, I believe we could see the euro and other major currencies strengthen against the dollar once equity markets stabilise, which they are trying to today. The greenback has lost its yield appeal due to weak economic indicators hinting at a potential recession in the US. Up until a couple of days ago, currencies with lower...
Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility.
It’s an amazing statement, signalling the BOJ can and will be bullied by markets to avoid doing what is right for the Japanese...
