Oil prices have been edging higher from their earlier lows. Understandably, traders do not want to be caught holding short bets on oil heading into the long weekend. The potential for Israel to strike Iran could see oil prices gap higher at the Asian open next week. There’s also the potential that China’s finance minister will announce substantive fiscal support...
If you want clues on directional risks for the US dollar, there are worse places to look than US 2-year Treasury note futures, shown in the left-hand pane of the chart. As one of the most liquid futures contracts globally, the price signals it provides can be very informative for broader markets, especially in the FX universe.
Having tumbled most of October,...
USD/JPY has continued to rally after last month's false breakout at the 140.00 handle, which is part of a large zone of longer-term support spanning from 139.28 up to 140.30.
I tracked that setup in these ideas, first with the support test itself:
and then the initial bounce:
and then the build of a falling wedge + the higher-low from the FOMC rate cut:...
It was a fast turn for EUR/USD last week and that move has grinded lower again this week, pushing below the 1.0943-1.0960 zone. Initially, that zone held the lows last Friday and through the first couple days of this week, but the 1.1000 handle was defended by sellers with this week's swing high coming a mere 2.7 pips away from the big figure.
This is similar to...
Shortly, US CPI will be released at 8:30am EDT or 13:30 BST.
Headline CPI is expected to print +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y (vs. 2.5% last)
Core CPI is seen at +0.2% or +3.2% y/y (unchanged from prev reading).
The inflation data will need to be some distance away from expectations to change the course of the dollar, which has been on the rise in the last week...
Nasdaq 100 futures have closed above 20370 for the first time since July 16, providing a platform for bullish trades to be established with a tight stop below for protection. The record high of 20984 seems an appropriate initial target.
Granted, the bullish move wasn’t underpinned by meaningful volumes, which would have been nice to see. But RSI (14) has broken...
The S&P 500 has been quite resilient despite the Chinese stock market sell-off, raised geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over the upcoming earnings results and not to mention US presidential election.
You would think that these risk events would weigh on risk appetite somewhat but so far this hasn't been the case.
Still, be on the look out for...
NZD/USD is testing the 200-day moving average in the wake of the RBNZ rate decision, a level that one glance tells you is important from a directional risk perspective. Momentum indicators continue to generate bearish signals, but I'm letting the price action tell me what to do near-term.
If the 200-day moving average holds you could initiate longs with a stop...
Silver has now failed t break the $32.00 level on multiple occasions - but it may do so soon Still, the fact that we have tried to take out the May high of $32.51 twice in as many weeks and have failed to hold there may be a sign of waning bullish momentum. At the time of writing, silver was still holding above key support in around the $31.35 - $31.50 area (blude...
It was the long-term fibo level at 1.1212 that has so far marked the 2024 high.
EUR/USD had a full head of steam in the first two months of Q3, eventually testing the 1.1200 level. And this was happening even as USD was setting fresh yearly lows, but even the 'super sized' rate cut from the Fed couldn't compel DXY bears to run with a trend and, in-turn, EUR/USD...
The US Dollar has started Q4 much differently than how most of Q3 had went.
I looked at the stalling in DXY multiple times last month as sellers seemingly had an open door to run with prints of fresh yearly lows. Yet - they were constantly thwarted. The USD even tried to set another fresh low to start this week, with Monday being the final day of Q3 trade but,...
All the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected.
...
NZD/USD is breaking down, slicing through uptrend support on the daily chart as we head towards nonfarm payrolls. With momentum indicators providing bearish signals, selling rallies and breaks is preferred near-term.
If we see a push back towards the former uptrend today, consider selling with a tight stop above for protection against reversal. Potential...
USD/JPY is hitting the top of the range it’s been in since mid-August. With RSI (14) and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, and having cleared the 50DMA, it feels like this attempted breakout may succeed where others have failed.
If we see a break and hold above resistance at 147.06, consider buying with a tight stop below the level for protection. Risk...
So far Q4 has started much differently than the way most of Q3 went. While EUR/USD was strong for most of last quarter bears have made a re-appearance in the pair, defending a lower-high inside of the long-term resistance level that I looked at last week at 1.1212.
It's been a fast move so far but the big question now is whether bears can do what they failed to...
The deviation between EUR/USD and AUD/USD has been quite clear over the past month. While EUR/USD had struggled at resistance of 1.1200, AUD/USD had continued flying up to fresh yearly highs. And given stances from each respective central bank, that divergence made sense.
This also showed clearly in the cross pair of EUR/AUD which set a fresh yearly low this...
For all the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, many markets remain respectful of levels on the charts, providing traders will some form of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Australia ASX 200 SPI futures is among that list, kissing uptrend support in overnight trade before bouncing into the close.
But whether the rebound can extend...
Risk assets took a tumble on reports a a senior US official has revealed that Iran may soon launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. The US is helping Israel prepare its defenses, warning that such an attack would have serious consequences for Iran. This development comes after Israel escalated its military operations against Tehran-backed Hezbollah in...
