The week opened with pain in USD/JPY as the pair tested below the 140.00 level for the first time in a year. But, as looked at in these notes, USD/JPY held support at a big spot of longer-term interest, from 139.28-140.30, and prices started to bounce.
There was then the slow and steady build of higher-lows in the pair, first with a 140.30 bounce and then on the...
The 2600 test in gold around FOMC yesterday was fast. And the response to that was heavy, with a $53 drop showing up soon after.
But the support zone from 2544-2550 held the lows and buyers got back-in, making another push towards the big figure that, so far, has failed.
While this does add question to shorter-term momentum the bigger item of interest is how...
It's been a fast move in GBP/USD since the 1.3000 test last Wednesday.
I looked at the pair again earlier this week after it had rallied up to a trendline produced by August and hat was at the time, September swing highs. At that point, I shifted the focus to support at the 1.3143-1.3161 area, which held and led into a bounce at the outset of yesterday's FOMC...
If we’re about to see investor risk appetite improve markedly, there are worse trades to have on than long AUD/JPY.
It’s had a strong bounce today, helped initially by rising US bonds yields propelling USD/JPY higher before another bumper Australian jobs report reinforced the view the RBA may not need to cut interest rates this year.
The bounce from 96.223 has...
The initial reaction in gold to the rate cut announcement was strong, with bulls pushing up for a test of the 2600 level. But that didn't last for long and prices soon started a rather quick pullback. At this point there's already been a bounce from the 2544-2550 zone and that bounce has come on quickly.
Reading this, along with USD and USD/JPY, through the...
Gold weekly RSI has pushed back into overbought territory following the ECB-fueled breakout from last week.
With the Fed set to start a cutting cycle that could potentially last for years, there's been a strong bid behind gold as the prospect of a 50 bp cut has started to get more attention.
Nonetheless chasing this higher at this point could be a challenge...
USD/JPY rebounded off key support yesterday at 140.25-141.02 - a region defined by the December low, the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance, and the objective yearly open. Looking for a reaction off this mark with the Fed on tap later today.
Initial resistance 143.31 backed by near-term bearish invalidation at 145.62-146.42 . A breach / close above this...
USD/JPY falls ahead of the Fed rate decision where the US central bank is expected to cut rates for the first time in 4 years. But by how much? The market prices in a 64% chance of a 50 bps cut. An outsized cut could send USD lower.
USD/JPY trades below its falling trendline. It has recovered from the 2024 low of 139.60 but failed to rise above the 1000 SMA on the...
GBP/USD rises after hotter than expected service sector inflation data. While headline CPI remained at 2.2%, services & core inflation were hotter than expected, supporting the view the BoE will keep rates unchanged tomorrow. Further gains in GBP/USD could come if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps later today.
GBP/USD trades above its rising trendline; the price has...
Nikkei futures look like a market where bulls and bears are waging war, all while the price continues to coil up within a symmetrical triangle, waiting for a potential explosive break.
The sizeable wicks on the daily candles suggests the collective market hasn’t made up its mind yet, although having entered the triangle from above, the inclination is that...
USD/MXN approaches the 50-Day SMA (18.9615) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (19.0919), with a break/close below 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) bringing the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around the August low (18.4291) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in...
While the world waits for the Fed to kick off their cutting cycle, there's been some very strong moves showing in Yen-pairs. GBP/JPY remains especially elevated on a longer-term basis and the Bank of England hasn't exactly been hawkish of late.
There was a 2,800 pip sell-off in July-August and the bounce from that was intense, even if it couldn't quite make it...
Gold rode a strong trend through the weekly open but buyers haven't yet been able to press into the 2600 psychological level.
Those big figures have played a large role in Gold's price action this year. The massive breakout in March-April stalled at 2400 with buyers unable to gain acceptance. But, the corresponding pullback couldn't make much ground below 2300...
DXY pushed down to support to start the week with a strong push from USD/JPY bears testing the 140.00 handle. But - that breakdown couldn't hold and with the FOMC just about 24 hours away we've seen some short-covering ahead of the big day. In my view the big driver for the USD since the July high has been USD/JPY and that carry unwind theme, which I think will...
USD/JPY is extending the bounce from support looked at yesterday. The pair is already trading through the first resistance objective at 141.69 which was the August swing-low. The next spot over head is the 143.45 level of prior support-turned-resistance from last week. And above that is the 145.00 handle.
This one seems especially vulnerable too and decisive for...
USD/JPY looms as a prime squeeze candidate should the Fed disappoint on extremely dovish market pricing, not only likely to benefit from the probable uplift in US bond yields but also recent shifts in market positioning.
USD/JPY staged a decent reversal on Monday after slicing through the Dec 28 low of 140.273, printing a hammer candle on the daily. With RSI (14)...
The price of oil recovers ahead of the January low ($64.37) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly low ($65.27) to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing $74.00 (50% Fibonacci...
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above key support into the weekly open at 100.61/76- a region defined by the December low and the 2024 low-day close (LDC). Note that the lower parallel of the pitchfork and the objective September opening-range also converge on this threshold and further highlight its technical significance- looking for a reaction off...
