BoJ More Dovish than Expected
Friday witnessed a surge in dollar demand versus the beleaguered Japanese yen (JPY). The USD/JPY pairing not only recorded its largest one-day gain this year (+1.7%), but the exchange rate also refreshed multi-decade highs and is swiftly closing in on the ¥160 region, a 1990 peak.
Earlier on Friday, Asia Pac trading witnessed the...
Europe’s shared currency wrapped up the week off best levels, eking out a marginal gain of +0.3% versus the US dollar.
Higher Timeframes Suggest Further Underperformance
Things are not looking too cheerful for the euro, both from a technical and fundamental perspective. Scope to continue pressing southbound on the monthly scale until support at $1.0516 is...
The price of spot silver versus the US dollar (XAG/USD) remains entrenched within a moderate uptrend. This tends to attract trend-following systems that attempt to buy breakouts of key areas of resistance and buy into corrections.
As evident from the H4 chart, price action has rebounded from an equal AB=CD harmonic formation at $26.79. Traders commonly enter...
Spot gold (XAU/USD) is +0.7% higher in US trading despite an earlier spike lower that was fuelled by the latest US GDP report (the first estimate).
Trend + AB=CD Support Suggest a Buyers’ Market
Technically, the price of gold could be poised to attack higher terrain. The trend, according to the higher timeframes, is unquestionably north after recently...
Amidst a dovish repricing, according to the OIS curve, sterling is on the back foot against the majority of its G10 peers ahead of the US cash open, currently down -0.5% versus its US counterpart.
With key support on the verge of breaching, this could lead to further downside in the currency pair!
Ahead of this week’s US GDP first estimate print and the PCE Price Index numbers, the US Dollar Index will likely be a watched market.
Buyers remain firmly at the wheel. YTD, we are nearly +5.0%, with April on track to close higher for a fourth consecutive month, up +1.5% MTD. And from a technical standpoint, further outperformance is on the table.
The USD/JPY currency pair recently refreshed multi-decade highs of ¥154.79, a move probing offers at channel resistance, taken from the high of ¥125.85. With resistance lacking here, this not only helps pave the way to test the mettle of ¥160.20 (highs from as far back as the 1990s) but also increases concerns about an intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)....
We have an interesting technical picture unfolding on the NZD/USD at the moment. From the daily timeframe, it is evident that the currency pair has been underwater for the majority of this year. In fact, year to date, we are lower by -6.6%.
Further Selling?
Favouring bears at this point is the downtrend shaped by a series of lower lows and lower highs since...
Technical Picture Favours Bears
Week to date, against the US dollar (USD), the price of bitcoin (BTC) is down more than -7.0% and touching gloves with levels not seen since mid-March.
Technically, the longer-term picture exhibits overbought/overvalued conditions. Following the all-time high clocked in early March at $73,845, commitment from buyers has been...
Following today's mixed bag of employment and wages data, tomorrow’s attention is directed to the March UK CPI inflation release, scheduled to air at 7:00 am GMT+1.
Estimates Suggest Further Disinflation
Both headline and core (excludes food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) measures have surprised to the downside in the previous two releases and are expected to...
Another week, another record high for the precious metal.
The spot price of gold (XAU/USD) refreshed all-time highs at $2,431 last week, strengthened by expectations of US rate cuts, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and central banks purchasing large stockpiles of gold.
However, sentiment soured on Friday, casting gold -1.2% lower...
The S&P 500 finished another week in negative territory, shedding -1.6% (-2.5% MTD). While it is clear that this market remains the domain of buyers, 90% of the upside in March has been reclaimed, and evidence is building for a deeper correction.
Deeper Correction Possible
Kicking things off from the monthly chart, following last week's all-time high of...
Sterling ended the week considerably lower against the US dollar, recording its largest one-week decline since July 2023 (-1.5%).
In light of the slew of UK economic data on the docket this week—wages, CPI inflation and retail sales—this will be a particularly key market to monitor.
Monthly Resistance Holding Firm
Price action on the monthly chart continues...
Following hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation numbers pulling the EUR/USD southbound yesterday, the currency pair is now testing the mettle of long-standing support ahead of today’s ECB rate decision.
While the central bank is unlikely to cut rates today, there is mounting speculation that we will see a 25bp cut at June’s policy-setting meeting, particularly...
Data came in broadly higher than expected for the March US CPI inflation print.
Higher-Than-Expected Reports on Three of the Four Major Prints
Year-on-year headline CPI inflation for March rose +3.5%, up from +3.2% in February and a touch higher than economists’ estimates of +3.4%. Of note, this follows a rise of +3.4% in December 2023, a rise of +3.1% in...
Market Pricing – Unlikely to Adjust Rates
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to update policy later today at 2:45 pm GMT+1. Markets are currently pricing around a 16% probability of a 25bp cut at the upcoming meeting, with June pricing in -20bps of easing and July fully pricing in a -25bp cut.
Recent Macro Data
The most recent data to be aware of heading...
The spot price of gold (XAU/USD) concluded another week in positive territory, adding +4.3% and refreshing record pinnacles at $2,330/ounce amid expectations of lower rates this year, geopolitical tensions and speculative buying.
There’s no denying that the yellow metal is exhibiting an uptrend and has been since pencilling in a bottom around the $1,614 area in...
