PCE Data Eases in the Twelve Months to January
Today’s PCE data—a preferred measure for the Fed and one of the primary indicators they use to set monetary policy—was in line with economists' estimates across the board. Interestingly, though, for the year-over-year measures for January, both headline and core supported the disinflationary process, easing to 2.4%...
Boosted on the back of record net inflows for spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and driven by the anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, week-to-date has seen BTC/USD advance +24.0% (its largest one-week gain since 2021).
What’s technically interesting about the major crypto pairing, however, is that the all-time high (ATH) of $68,986 is now within...
Active Daily Support
As can be seen from the daily chart of the AUD/NZD, the trend is evidently clear: it is to the downside: a series of lower lows and lower highs. However, we are at support from NZ$1.0587, a level delivering history as far back as early 2023. While buyers did step in from here in early February 2024, resistance from NZ$1.0673 proved to be...
Technically speaking, price action on the EUR/GBP cross has been rangebound since late 2016, which is evident on the monthly chart.
However, what this ranging action has offered technical eyes is a potential Head and Shoulder’s Top pattern to work with between £0.9306, £0.9504 and £0.9066 (if you wanted to be more technical, you might also refer to this as a...
Goldman Sachs Forecast Higher Prices for Gold
The latest research out of Goldman Sachs forecasts that the price of gold will climb by 6.0% to $2,175 a troy ounce in the next 12 months. Among other factors, the research evidenced demand through central bank purchases and global geopolitical tensions. However, the authors also suggested that price action is likely...
USD/JPY at Familiar Long-Term Resistance
The US dollar (USD) ended a second week in positive terrain against the Japanese yen (JPY), leading the USD/JPY currency pair back to familiar resistance on the monthly chart at ¥150.80. However, things are not looking too bright for USD/JPY bears at this point. On the one hand, the trend is notably in favour of buyers,...
The only way is up!
No, this is not that old favourite from the late 90s.
I am talking about major US cash equity indices.
Global Risk-On Surge
US equities gapped higher at the open on Thursday, strengthened by the blowout earnings for Q4 revenue from NVIDIA (NVDA) that encouraged a global bid across risk assets. The stock is now up by an eye-popping 15% on...
Following a spirited push to the upside in recent weeks, the BTC/USD pairing has taken a breather in recent price movement and formed what many technical analysts may recognise as a broadening pattern (formed by two diverging lines taken from $52,868 and $51,372).
However, what is interesting and the reason why this market has made this list this week is due to...
With the recent upside in most major crypto pairings, it seems only fitting to look over Ripple’s technical price action against the US dollar (XRP/USD).
Following a pullback from lows of $0.4856 in early February (off support at $0.4946), buyers and sellers have been squaring off at the underside of trendline resistance (extended from the high of $0.7488) since...
It is safe to say it has been an energetic start to the year, underscoring meaningful shifts in the economic landscape and rate expectations.
Last week delivered a busy slate of tier-1 risk events; this week’s economic calendar, however, offers a lighter docket. Monday is poised to be a snooze. Void of tier-1 numbers and US banks closing in observance of...
It has been quite the week for the UK.
Tuesday welcomed UK wage data, which fell less than expected and illustrated sticky inflation. Headline wages (including bonuses) dipped to 5.8% (expected: 5.6%; previous: 6.7%) in the three months to December 2023, and pay that excludes bonuses also fell to 6.2% (expected: 6.0%; previous: 6.7%). Wednesday saw the January UK...
Following on from last week’s analysis on spot gold (XAU/USD), you will note that the yellow metal did tunnel through the widely watched $2,000 level in recent trading and shake hands with support between $1,971 and $1,986—made up of an AB=CD bullish pattern (100% projection ratio), horizontal support as well as a number of Fibonacci ratios.
As you can see from...
The price of Bitcoin has been on a tear against the US dollar recently. Week to date, BTC/USD has advanced nearly +9.0%, following last week’s +10.7% rally!
$50,000 Cleared
We did see the unit briefly make a pitstop at the underside of the $50,000 level on Tuesday, though sellers were reluctant to commit and concluded the day considerably off worst levels....
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK consumer prices steadied in January, with both headline and core inflation numbers matching prior months and undershooting economists’ estimates. In the twelve months to January, headline inflation rose 4.0% (expected: 4.2%; previous: 4.0%), and the core measure—excluding energy, food, alcohol and...
Today’s US inflation print came in hotter than expected.
The headline release slowed to 3.1% in the twelve months to January, down from 3.4% in December though above economists’ estimates of 2.9% (median forecast). Year-over-year core inflation matched December’s release at 3.9%, 0.2 percentage points north of the market’s median estimate of 3.7%....
Ahead of the European cash open, we welcome potentially heavyweight UK data at 7:00 am GMT.
As I am sure you’re already aware, I must point out that traders will be viewing the unemployment metric with some trepidation due to problems with data collection. Market consensus, however, forecast a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in the three months to...
Ahead of this week’s wages/employment data and CPI inflation print, the technical position for the GBP/USD leans in favour of bears.
Monthly Resistance Continues to Attract Selling
Kicking off with a look at the monthly chart, the currency pair continues to test the mettle of resistance at $1.2715, ending marginally lower for a second straight week. The...
BTC/USD longs had a splendid week. The major crypto has added an eye-watering +10.7%.
You may recall that the FP Markets Research Team recently beat the drum for the pairing, documenting the potential for outperformance.
Weekly Resistance Cleared
The weekly timeframe’s technical landscape showed price action retested support on the weekly timeframe at $38,809...
