Market analysis from OANDA
The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Friday, after five straight losing sessions. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6823, down 0.45% on the day. Risk apprehension is sharply lower in the markets today, as a Covid variant which has spread in South Africa is causing concern around the world. Two cases of the variant were detected in Hong Kong today...
The euro has reversed directions and is back above the 1.1200 level. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1222, up 0.19% on the day. Where is ECB policy headed? That is no easy question, as we are getting mixed messages from ECB officials. Governor Christine Lagarde has pushed back against market bets of a rate hike in late 2022. Earlier this month, Lagarde said that it was...
Or more to go? Oil prices are on the rise again after a correction over the last month but how much support does it now have? It didn't take long for oil to rebound after the US, China, India, Japan, UK and South Korea announced their coordinated SPR release. A sign that the market had fully priced in the announcement, perhaps even that it isn't the game-changer...
Correction may be coming The dollar has been on a strong run the last couple of weeks, which when coupled with the broad weakness we've seen in the euro has led to an accelerated sell-off in the EURUSD pair. Higher inflation, a strong consumer and a strengthening labour market has backed the Fed into a corner, despite strong pushback on rate talk over recent...
Or is there too much momentum? It's been a wild ride for gold this past few weeks and the latest moves highlight just how much uncertainty there is in the markets right now. The yellow metal saw incredible support earlier this month as inflation indicators flashed and central banks pushed back against accelerating their policy response. The transitory claim...
The British pound is in negative territory in the Friday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3450, down 0.35% on the day. UK retail sales for October surprised the markets, as the gain of 0.8% m/m was the first gain in five months. Clearly good news, but the improvement could well be due to early Christmas shopping rather than a change in the mindset of...
The Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 113.93, down 0.28% on the day. Japan's CPI edged up by 0.1% y/y in October, identical to the September gain. Higher energy costs were behind the increase, which would have been higher if not for a sharp drop in mobile phone fees. These inflation figures are certainly much more subdued than what...
The euro has been grinding lower against the pound for more than a year now, with much of 2021 spent within a shallow descending channel. But with the two central banks likely to see some divergence in monetary policy over the next 12-18 months, could we finally see the pair break out of this long-standing trend? The BoE bottled the rate hike at its November...
It's been a wild ride in GBPJPY over the last month or so and it may only be about to take off. From long-term consolidation to finally breaking higher - and in impressive fashion - to a sharp reversal after the BoE bottled raising rates. It's been quite the month and there's still plenty of action to come. The pair now finds itself between two very interesting...
The UK100 has been on a good run in recent weeks, in keeping with the broader trend in stock markets that have reacted very positively to a strong third-quarter earnings season. This followed an adjustment prior to the start of the season as investors started pricing in earlier and earlier rate hikes, not to mention more of them over the next couple of years, in...
The Australian dollar has started the week in positive territory, extending the gains seen on Friday. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7364, up 0.47% on the day. It's a light calendar in Australia this week, with no major economic releases. The highlight from Down Under will be the RBA minutes from the November meeting, which will be released on Tuesday. The...
After three losing sessions, the Australian dollar has steadied. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7305, up 0.17% on the day. In the Asian session, the Aussie dropped to 0.7277, its lowest level in a month. The Australian dollar didn't get any help from the October employment report, which was showed total employment declining and the unemployment rate rising....
The dollar rallied strongly on Wednesday after data showed inflation rose to a 31-year high in the US. Coming on the back of Friday's fantastic jobs report and the 20-year high in the quarterly employment cost index the week before, this doesn't bode well for a Fed intent on being patient on raising interest rates. The central bank has repeatedly stated its...
It's been a wild ride for gold the last couple of weeks, as markets have done their best to navigate the poorly communicated policy shifts at various central banks. From pricing in plenty of rate hikes to paring back expectations, gold has previously broken below the ascending channel and set itself up for a potentially deeper dive, before now soaring higher to...
The Australian dollar is in positive territory at the start of the week and has punched above the 74 level. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7424, up 0.34% on the day. The RBA was in the headlines for much of the week, and investors were all ears as the RBA released its quarterly policy statement on Friday. The bank sounded guardedly optimistic about the...
The British pound has extended its losses in the Friday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3445, down 0.41% on the day. It's been a miserable week for the British pound, which is down 1.76% this week. The driver behind the pound's slide was the BoE meeting, as policy makers caught the markets off guard when they opted to maintain the cash rate at 0.10%....
The pound plunged on Thursday after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged and gave the impression future hikes won't be as aggressive as markets had anticipated. For weeks, the pound has performed well and traders priced in one hike this year and at least a few next. But it seems they may have to reconsider and that started today. The pound has...
The euro is down considerably in Thursday trade. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1550, down 0.53%. Earlier in the day, the euro fell to 1.1528, its lowest level since October 13th. There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve meeting, as policy makers trimmed the QE programme by 15 billion dollars/month. The move was nonetheless highly significant, as it...