Market analysis from OANDA
Gold was given a helping hand by Jerome Powell and the Fed on Friday when they signalled that they can be patient on tapering and that it is not linked to interest rates. The comments brought US yields and the dollar lower and triggered a rally in gold which generally does well in more accommodative environments. But while gold did rally and significantly break...
EURUSD broke above the descending channel earlier today in a move that may be indicative of a correction being underway. The breakout followed comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday when he reaffirmed the view that the Fed is still considering tapering this year while also urging caution and patience. More importantly, he stressed that tapering and rate...
Gold appears to be eyeing its mid-summer highs after Powell comments during the virtual Jackson Hole event. Powell delivered what the markets wanted to hear. No immediate taper, an awareness of the downside risks for the economy and a commitment that tapering and rate hikes remain unlinked. The dollar softened after the speech and gold rallied back through...
EURUSD has been on a downtrend for the last few months but with momentum running low, it may be preparing for a correction. A move through the descending channel may signal that a corrective move is underway, especially with the breakout also coinciding with a move above the 55-day SMA which it has traded below since the middle of June. A move through here would...
Bitcoin has enjoyed a good run this past month but recent rallies are struggling to generate much momentum, which suggests a corrective move may be on the cards. There was a lot of excitement as bitcoin broke back above $50,000 for the first time since May but it wasn't long until profit-taking once again kicked in. There is resistance around $51,000 - the...
We've been seeing consolidation in GBPJPY for several months now and it would appear that momentum is gradually turning in favour of sellers. While the pair is seeing solid support around 148.50, the rallies are hitting a ceiling earlier and earlier which is typically a bearish signal. With that support zone also now being intercepted by the 200/233-day SMA...
Gold has come a long way over the last couple of weeks when it suffered a flash crash. Since then, not only has it rebounded strongly, it's crossed back above the support level that was the catalyst for the plunge and headed back towards recent highs. It's broken through major resistance levels along the way, the latest being $1,800 which sees it overcome the...
The Canadian dollar is in negative territory for a fifth straight day. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2902, up 0.57% on the day. June Retail Sales rebounded nicely, with gains of 4.2% for Headline Retail Sales (4.4% exp.) and 4.7% for Core Retail Sales (4.6% exp.). In May, the headline read was -2.1% and core retail sales at -2.0%. The strong gains are...
It hasn't been a great couple of weeks for GBP/USD. From pushing a break above 1.40 to breaking below moving averages and threatening to break below recent lows. The outlook for the pound remains promising but the dollar is on a tear and, like others, the pound is suffering the consequences. On Thursday, the pair broke below the 200/233-day SMA band, a major...
It has been a rough week for the Australian dollar, which has is down close to 2 per cent this week. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7232, down 0.28% on the day. Australia releases key employment data early on Thursday, and the forecast is not encouraging. The economy is expected to have shed 42.5 thousand in July, after a gain of 29.1 thousand in June. The...
Two months of consolidation has made things a little dull for the NZD/USD pair and that looked to be coming to an end until a new Covid outbreak brought everything to a halt. The delta strain has many concerned and New Zealand has taken a tough stance since the start of the pandemic - successfully so - which makes the decision far from surprising. What may have...
The pound slid following the release of the UK jobs report on Tuesday, despite the headline numbers looking broadly positive for the country. The UK labour market looks in a very strong position as the furlough scheme continues to be phased out. The data today is very encouraging, from the drop in the headline unemployment rate to the payrolls. Vacancy numbers...
EURUSD entered into bearish territory a couple of months ago and after a strong run for the dollar, the pair finally found support around 1.17, where it bottomed at the end of March. The UoM consumer sentiment survey fell to its lowest in a decade on Friday which appeared to encourage further profit taking in the greenback and, while it has pared losses a little...
Bitcoin is having another run at $47,000 at the end of the week. The pullback was quite shallow and short-lived in the end although it could still face resistance at the previous peak, where we're already seeing momentum slip a little. A failure to break $47,000 wouldn't be any concern at this stage and could just be indicative of the correction having not run...
Bitcoin is slightly lower on Thursday, having stalled in the middle of the week following strong rallies this month. The 50 fib level – April highs to June lows – is putting up a bit of a fight as resistance, although I don’t think it will keep the crypto bulls at bay for much longer. This rally has some real momentum and I think we’re just seeing some brief...
Not only did Gold not recover from the NFP blow on Friday, but things got a whole lot worse on Monday. The yellow metal has since recovered the bulk of the losses sustained during illiquid trade at the start of the week but that may not improve the outlook. Gold is currently testing that major support - $1,750 - from below and a rebound off this level could be...
The UK100 is closing in on 7,200 and approaching levels not seen since the start of the pandemic. This isn't the first time the index has eyed up this level in recent months but in the past it has failed to break through in any significant way - it briefly touched 7,217 a couple of months ago before reversing course - and each time a corrective move has...
What a week it's been for the dollar. Since last week's poor ADP we've had strong ISM data, hawkish Fed commentary and, finally, a knockout jobs report. Suddenly, it feels that a tapering announcement is almost upon us and the data is pointing to good times ahead. What a time to be bullish on the dollar. Which makes me wonder whether so much is now baked into...