Market analysis from Pepperstone
The escalation in geo-political risks overnight in the Middle East, marked by Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites which was followed by Iran's retaliatory drone strikes against Israel, have seen a rush to safe haven assets, which this time included buying dollars (a rarity of late!). This has seen GBPUSD fall quickly from a fresh 2025 high hit early this...
Gold prices have moved slowly higher at the start of this week, moving from a Monday low at 3293, up to a Tuesday high of 3349, with prices slightly lower this morning at time of writing (3335 – 0700 BST). Traders have already had much to consider this week, with heightened tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine to focus on, as well as the midnight conclusion...
Fresh optimism regarding trade negotiations between the US and China, coupled with confirmation on Friday that the US labour market is cooling down slowly and not indicating an imminent US recession, has seen the US 500 index open this morning at 4 month highs, bumping up against the psychological 6000 again, with its all time peak of 6144 (February 19th) back in...
EURUSD has experienced a choppy start to the week so far. Initially trading from opening levels around 1.1345 up to a 6-week high of 1.1455 early Tuesday morning, before running into profit taking and then bouncing between these two levels in response to various drivers, including updates on US/China trade discussions, Eurozone inflation, US economy ,and...
You could have been mistaken into thinking that the down move in Gold at the back end of last week, which saw it trade to a low of 3271 on Friday and then close the week only slightly higher at 3288, was the type of price action that reflected tired long positioning and may have led to further tests of deeper support levels between 3245 (May 28th low) and 3204...
On Monday, AUDUSD briefly threatened a breakout from its May trading range, evident between 0.6356 (May 12th low) up to 0.6514 (May 7th high) with an early push up to a new monthly peak of 0.6537 on the Asia open. However, that move failed quickly after news of President Trump’s decision to extend the deadline for 50% tariffs on the EU from June 1st to July 9th...
Global stock indices have reacted positively at the start of this new trading week to President Trump’s decision to extend a deadline which would impose a tariff of 50% on EU goods imported into the US from June 1st to July 9th. Taken alongside a new willingness being signalled from the EU side to speed the negotiating process along in key areas, means trader...
Traders are often eager to jump straight into the next trading session but this may not always be the best option to chose. It can be more beneficial to follow a regular pre-trading routine to note down important scheduled events, establish current trends, as well as meaningful support and resistance price levels, and importantly this doesn’t have to be time...
The recent reduction in global trade tensions has helped Crude Oil (WTI) prices recover from lows of 55.64 seen on May 5th, to trade comfortably above 60 for the last 2 weeks. Traders have readjusted their thinking and positioning to account for a slightly more stable background for the global economy, and its potential influence on upcoming demand for...
EURUSD has recently been struggling for upside momentum as a reduction in trade tensions have boosted the dollar, and hopes for another ECB rate cut in June have weighed on the Euro. This has seen a selloff in the world’s biggest FX pair from its 2025 highs at 1.1573 posted on April 21st, to a low of 1.1065 on May 12th, as US and China trade representatives...
The US 500 index recorded a 2-month high of 5958 on Friday before settling back to close the week at 5922, an incredible 24% rally from the index's tariff induced lows at 4799 seen on April 7th. Impressive indeed. However, late on Friday evening the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded US government debt from its top credit rating of Aa1 to Aaa, citing a ballooning...
USDJPY experienced a significant move higher at the end of April/beginning of May, as first, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) started to indicate caution towards further interest rate hikes due to the uncertainty caused by the introduction of President Trump’s trade tariffs, a potential negative for the JPY. This was followed by dollar demand linked to Monday’s...
A press conference yesterday morning led by US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Trade representative Greer outlined a positive conclusion to the first round of trade talks between the US and China. The news grabbing headline was a 90 day reduction in combined US levies on Chinese imports being reduced from 145% to 30% and Chinese duties on US goods dropping from...
Gold prices rallied 0.6% on Friday to close at 3325 as traders rushed to obtain some safe haven protection against the uncertainty of whether the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China, taking place in Geneva over the weekend, may yield positive or negative results which could have significantly impact all markets on the Monday open. Roll forward...
The Germany 40 index has been on a wild ride in the first 4+ months of 2025 as European equity markets have reaped the benefits of a shift out of US assets, an expected major spending up lift by European governments on defence and more importantly for the Germany 40 specifically, a commitment by the country’s lawmakers to lift the debt break, which is expected to...
GBPUSD volatility has decreased recently, which has left the popular currency pair range trading at the higher end of its 2025 trading band between lows of 1.3233 seen on April 23rd and yearly highs of 1.3444 seen on April 28th, with traders delaying decisions on any significant directional commitments to account for President Trump’s 90 day tariff pause and to...
The Dow Jones Index (US 30) has moved steadily higher over the last 10 trading days as traders continue to unwind short positioning attached to the popular sell US assets idea that seemed to dominate at the beginning of April, in the pre President Trump 90 day tariff pause era. At the start of this new week, after a period of quiet trading on Monday, mainly due...
USDJPY started the week with a 1.3% fall on Monday, where it fell from opening levels around its weekly highs at 143.88, to a low at 141.92 and has since stayed relatively quiet. However, that could all change as we move through towards Friday, as FX markets move into a 3-day period packed with important scheduled events. Risk sentiment towards US assets, and...