Aus Q4 CPI came in at 4.1% yoy, with the trimmed mean measure at 4.2% yoy – both were nicely below the economist's median forecast, and importantly below the RBA’s own forecasts of 4.5% for both metrics.
We also saw the more timely monthly (December) CPI print coming in at 3.4%; a 90bp improvement – and just 40bp away from the 2-3% target band.
Next week’s...
A jam-packed week for financial markets concludes with the first US labour market report of the year, with expectations for there to have been a modest cooling in the pace of job creation as 2024 got underway, adding further to the body of evidence pointing towards the economy achieving a ‘soft landing’, and unlocking the possibility of Fed cuts as the year...
While the AUS200 revisits the all-time highs set in Aug 2021, the index absorbs a positive mix of sentiment towards global risk, as well as local factors, and many question if this time around we see the illustrious bullish break the bulls are positioned for. While global macro issues remain paramount, one catalyst to look towards is ASX200 1H24 earnings, with...
After a rally into 1.7935, the structure in the flow and the set-up has changed, and the sellers are starting to dominate. We’ve seen a daily close through the rising uptrend (drawn from the Jan lows), with a strong rejection of the 200-day MA.
Fundamentally we’ve heard a more hawkish assessment today from the RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway that “non-tradeable...
We move past a busy week in markets and onto an even busier one, littered with potential landmines for traders to navigate.
One key theme which has legs this week are moves in Chinese markets – notably, China went after short sellers with several targeted measures. We also saw a 50bp cut to banks RRR amid reports of an RMB2t package for offshore SOE to buy...
As we approach the weekend, the cryptocurrency market is capturing everyone's attention. Bitcoin (BTC) has made a significant recovery, surging from the key psychological level of $40,000. This impressive price action follows a recent dip earlier in the week when it teased a false breakdown below that crucial support level.
Today's movement marks the most...
Fueled by falling US inventories and Chinese stimulus, crude oil is on the move. This recent price action has enabled WTI to break through the resistance level we had been closely observing, which was around $75 per barrel. With this newfound positive momentum, all eyes are now focused on the crucial psychological level of $80 per barrel, with the potential for...
Dr. Copper has recently demonstrated signs of strength, largely attributed to China's stimulus measures. This price surge is occurring within a pattern of consistently higher lows since the lows of 2023. It's important to highlight that this upward momentum previously broke through the downtrend line stemming from the highs of 2023.
Following its breakthrough of...
As had been widely expected, and fully priced by money markets, the ECB left all three benchmark interest rate unchanged at their first decision of the year, maintaining the deposit rate at a record high 4.00%. Comments on the policy outlook were also rather thin on the ground, representing the January meeting being a ‘wait and see’ one for the Governing Council,...
While the US500 and NAS100 juggernaut rolls on and the VIX index remains under 13%, we ask what could derail this risk rally.
One event which has shown form through 2023 as a market mover is the US Treasury’s QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement).
For background the ‘QRA’ – or Quarterly Refinancing Announcement – is where the US Treasury Department announce...
Master Elliot Wave principles for precise wave identification, using Fibonacci ratios to validate counts and identify reversal or continuation zones. Recognize key wave patterns for enhanced decision-making in swing trading.
Westy and Blake are back with another episode of The Trade Off! Today, the talk is ATHs of a range of US equities and what's going on in China, Japan and the upcoming US elections and how they might affect traders. A smorgasboard of topics for y'all!
We reflect on the week that was and where the US equity markets stole the show, with new highs in the S&P500, and the NAS100 outperforming all major equity markets. A.I names went on a tear on Friday, where notably Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD felt the love. With 16% of the S&P500 market cap reporting this week, earnings and corporate outlooks will play a greater role...
It's the 100th episode of The Trade Off and oh boy, there's a lot going on. Westy and Blake catch up on almost a month of market moves and it's a doozy!
Macro (sentiment. Fed cuts, equity & USD), charts (H-Shares, BTC, USDJPY & DAX) and trade ideas.
Wyckoff principles guide market analysis, linking volume and price for smarter decisions (Composite Operator Strategies, Volume-Price Analysis), and spotting patterns for potential reversals and trends (Accumulation and Distribution Signatures).
The focus from broad market players has been in part on developments in the Red Sea, but also on Fed gov Waller speech at the Brookings Institute. As many have seen in the price action, the aggregate view is that Waller's comments were hawkish, although in essence that’s only relative to the lofty expectations of cuts priced into interest rate and US swaps pricing...
We move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point. Yield curves are steepening (the US 2’s 30s curve is no longer inverted), driven by the short-end where US 2-year Treasury yields fell for six straight days, losing...
Analyzing volume profiles for precise entry and exit points in day trading. Exploring advanced volume indicators for short-term decisions and using order flow analysis to identify market sentiment shifts.
