Just when you start to sense that risky assets (such as equity) may head into a more prolonged drawdown, with various Fed members talking about easier financial conditions subtracting the need to lower rates, we see a solid rally in the NAS100, US500 and US2000.
The NAS100 had its best day since 14 Nov, as tech led the way courtesy of Nvidia’s new product...
This came up in a conversation I had recently with a client, who asked if I agreed with the view that we’re in for another good year for equities based on the current median forecast of 4832 (source Bloomberg), with the range of 19 analyst calls set between 4200 to 5200.
For starters let’s revisit the 2023-year-end call on the S&P500 made back in Dec 2022, where...
Worlds collide in this special bonanza of The Trade Off! For the first time ever, we have Westy and Blake joind by TTO UK's Michael Brown (as well as special guest Tamas Szabo, our CEO!) for a quick retrospective of 2023 and a crystal ball gaze into 2024!
As many try to put reasoning to the perennial grind higher in US equity markets, one clear factor is that the market sees one major difference between 2023 and 2024 – the ‘Fed put’ has been reborn and the metaphorical safety blanket for risky assets is back in the mix.
Cast our minds back to January 2023, and investors were seeing inflation falling, with...
We roll past a huge week of event risk, and you can’t beat a surprisingly dovish-interpreted turn from the Fed to get risk pumping in markets – but that is what we saw, and it affected our trading environment greatly.
Perhaps things had gone too far with NY Fed President John Williams stepping in on Friday and pushing back, detailing it was “premature” to think...
Westy and Blake are back with a massive episode of The Trade Off you won't want to miss! They're talking macro (FOMC, other CBs, Risk On & Holiday Trading), charts (USDJPY, EURCHF, US2K & ETH) and trade ideas (US500 & Crude). See you there!
The FX Evolution team are back with an advanced session! They're talking Multi-Time Frame Analysis for precise entry and exit decisions in both scalping and day trading scenarios, Candlestick Pattern Combinations & Volume Analysis with Candlesticks.
While we look ahead to the BoJ meeting (19 Dec) and keep a vigil on headlines from local press on potential policy tweaks, this week it's not hard to find tier-one catalysts and event risk for traders to navigate their exposures over. On the central bank side, we look for guidance from the Fed, the ECB, the BoE, Norges Bank and the SNB. For traders who focus on...
Westy and Blake are back with another episode of The Trade Off! They're talking macro (Interest Rate Pricing, Yields, Risk Manager & NFP), charts (Crude, EURGBP, US500 & Gold) and trade ideas (EURMXN & AUDNZD). See you there!
We roll into December and many hoping to take a couple of weeks off over the festive season may be reconsidering that call – such is the opportunity cost. Whether one is looking at equities, the USD, gold, or bonds/rates it's all a big momentum play.
In equity land, the US30 is where the big moves are playing out, with the index in beast mode and a mere 1.9%...
Westy and Blake are back with another episode of The Trade Off! They're talking macro (Mag 7, Markets, USD Turn & JPY), charts (USDJPY, NZDJPY, Gold & Nifty50) and trade ideas (Cocoa & USDSEK). See you there!
Westy and Blake are back - a day early...again! They talking macro (USD, Treasury Auctions, Volatility Shot & Markets), charts (Gold, Silver, USDJPY & EURAUD) and trade ideas (AUDCAD & DXY). Tune in for another episode of The Trade Off
Volume and liquidity kick back into markets after the US Thanksgiving celebrations and we consider if the trend of a weaker USD, low cross-asset volatility, rising gold and Bitcoin can continue. Direction for this scenario will focus on the direction of travel in equity markets, and notably, whether the NAS100, US500 and even the JPN225 can kick higher.
The...
It's that time of year when forecasters get to work and calculate the necessary assumptions to plug into their models to offer year-ahead forecasts.
In theory, strategists loath making such calls, but in the investment arena expected returns are important for asset allocation, so economics teams work closely together with FX, bond, and equity teams to make calls...
The technology sector has continued to outperform of late, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq reclaiming the 16,000 handle, and rallying to its best levels since last January. Consequently, many are beginning to ponder whether these strong gains can continue into the end of the year, and if the outperformance will persist through 2024.
The message from recent price...
With a new set of weekly candles to assess, we see the USD looking weak, with the greenback having fallen on the week against all G10 and EM currencies, bar the COP - the risk seems skewed for further downside in the buck.
EURUSD closed above the former rising trend (drawn from the March lows) and targets 1.0960 (the 61.8 fibo of the July-Oct sell-off), with...
Westy and Blake are back. Markets are alive and they're aiming to help you make sense of the commotion. We have macro (Sentiment, Rates, 2024 Outlooks), charts (EURUSD, EURGBP, SOL & AMZN) and trade ideas (CHINAH & USDMXN). See you there!
After a more subdued week on the event risk front, the week ahead refocuses traders’ attention on global growth dynamics, with China, Europe, and the US in the spotlight. The US CPI print is the marquee data point, but it will take a big upside surprise (vs consensus expectations) to bring the December or January FOMC meeting to a ‘live’ status, and interest rates...
