Having only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really...
A BIG chart for the coming week - the higher time frames need work to really get the USD bulls excited and price is still contained below the 5-day EMA. However, we've seen divergence (one of best impending reversal signals) playing out and a closing break of the bear channel puts the upside targets at horizontal resistance at 105.40 and possibly the 200-day...
Westy is still on the road, so Quasar is stepping up once more to take his spot! Blake and him are talking all things to watch in markets in the coming days. What's the USD up to? What's inflation got to do with it and what's happening in Gold and BTC?
In recent weeks we saw AUDNZD trade in a range between 1.08 and 1.067 after a big move from 1.108 highs. This consolidation formed a potential bearish rectangle pattern which is a continuation pattern formed after a big move to the downside.
We then saw the market finally breakdown to breach the range support, then came back to retest it as resistance and closed...
Westy is on the road, enjoying a well-earned break, so Quasar from The Trade Off Español is stepping up! Blake and him are talking all things to watch in markets in the coming days. Strap in for another episode of The Trade Off.
We saw JPYX go up in a rising channel and topped at 866 then reversed, which is usually a reversal sign after a sustained move to the upside.
Market then traded and broke out of the channel as well as the 851 key support, which confirmed that sellers had stepped in.
We then traded below and broke 840 and retested it as resistance.
With the weekly timeframe having...
We saw GBPAUD form a rounded bottom on the H4 timeframe, which is usually a bullish reversal sign after a sustained drop.
We then saw a series of higher highs then a break of the rounded bottom neckline at 1.793 followed by a move higher.
We then saw a pullback and consolidation in a bullish pennant, which also signals a possible continuation. Could we see a break...
Gold is in beast mode - we eye the 2022 and ATHs at $2070 and $2075 respectively and scalper aside it's hard to bet against the momentum play right now
The USD is finding few friends and the ST bear trend is a massive tailwind for gold. We've seen US yield curves looking like they will resume bull steepening and rate cuts are once again being priced into OIS and...
The NAS100 has rallied 12.5% since the 13 March low, and while starting to look overbought, momentum is clearly strong. The closing break of the bull flag and 12,893 horizontal resistance offers a technical target of 13,800. Price is bull trending and hugging the upper Bollinger Band, with pullbacks contained to the 5-day EMA. Fundamentally, if capital continues...
Time – 4 April @ 14:30 AEDT
In the March RBA meeting minutes, the RBA noted policy was now in restrictive territory and they would “reconsider” the case for a pause in the April meeting. Is there enough new information to compel this pause?
Market expectations - hike or a pause?
The market prices just 4bp of hikes for this meeting, equating to a 16% chance of...
Westy and Blake are back! Today, they're talking rates (inc the RBA!), banks, stocks (with a trade idea for the Nasdaq), forex (EUR, JPY and GBP) and gold! Tune in for another episode of The Trade Off.
Markets are still on alert for developments on the banking front, as nerves persist, while last week's central bank bonanza delivered some surprises, and opened divergences traders can take advantag of in the FX space.
Westy and Blake are back - this time from Westy's hotel room in Hong Kong! Yet another crazy week in markets, and they're talking banks, FOMC (and other central banks), gold, Nasdaq and lots of forex pairs
There has been an almost nirvana backdrop for gold appreciation through March, and the improved investment case has offered tailwinds which have seen spot gold trade into $2009.
Gold longs would be disappointed the $2000 failed to hold though and subsequently, we see indecision on the daily chart, denoted by the pronounced ‘doji’ candle – this short-term...
It could get pretty crazy in the markets this week, and it may start on the futures open at 9am AEDT – headlines have been rolling in today and everyone is on edge for answers – it's complex, but I’ll try and explain what we’re looking out for.
Let us first focus on the US banks – they are a central focus and really the big issue at hand.
EU banks are quite...
So much to get through this week on another big episode of The Trade Off. West and Blake have got you covered, macro, charts and trade ideas! Today they're talking Banks & the FOMC Meeting, Bitcoin, Gold, EURUSD, Crude, AUDJPY and more!
Times to be aware of:
23 March at 5 am AEDT (6 pm GMT) – Chair Powell’s press conference at 05:30 AEDT
While there is much debate around this call, I still think we’re staring at the Fed delivering a 25bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Where the risks to the USD are skewed to the long side.
It is a call that is certainly being hotly debated and while...
