It could get pretty crazy in the markets this week, and it may start on the futures open at 9am AEDT – headlines have been rolling in today and everyone is on edge for answers – it's complex, but I’ll try and explain what we’re looking out for.
Let us first focus on the US banks – they are a central focus and really the big issue at hand.
EU banks are quite...
So much to get through this week on another big episode of The Trade Off. West and Blake have got you covered, macro, charts and trade ideas! Today they're talking Banks & the FOMC Meeting, Bitcoin, Gold, EURUSD, Crude, AUDJPY and more!
Times to be aware of:
23 March at 5 am AEDT (6 pm GMT) – Chair Powell’s press conference at 05:30 AEDT
While there is much debate around this call, I still think we’re staring at the Fed delivering a 25bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Where the risks to the USD are skewed to the long side.
It is a call that is certainly being hotly debated and while...
We've seen the fallout from higher for longer and a deeply inverted yield curve - with the failing of SVB Financial and Signature Bank in the US.
The market has punished financials feeling we could see far more conservatives lending and tighter regulations - interest rate hikes have come out of the markets, resulting in some of the biggest moves in US Treasury...
We saw AUDUSD sideways consolidate between 0.6775 and 0.6700 on the H1 timeframe before breaking support at 0.6700 and plummeting to 0.6570.
We then saw a pullback and shooting star rejection on the previous support, now resistance, as well as the golden fib, which formed a confluence of matrix for a reversal to the downside.
Could we see a continuation leg down...
We start the week on a positive note but with such event risk in front of us volatility remains something that traders need to adjust too and respect.
After spending most of the weekend debating who was to blame for SVB Financials demise and who was next in the firing line, we’ve seen the Fed uniting with the US Treasury and the FDIC to bring out the big guns -...
We saw GBPAUD form a rounded bottom on the H4 timeframe, which is usually a bullish reversal sign after a sustained drop.
We then saw a series of higher highs then a break of the rounded bottom neckline at 1.793 followed by a move higher.
Could we see a pullback to 1.802 then a continuation to the target area at 1.825?
Once for the radar
A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps?
-SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge...
Westy and Blake are back with another big update on The Trade Off! They're talking Rates, NFP Strategy, Yield Curves, the USD, EURUSD, EURAUD, China 50, SpotCrude, USDCAD and more - see you there!
Equities enjoyed a rally last week, as yields paused their ascent, and the dollar rolled over; a busy week awaits traders this week, with Fed Chair Powell heading to Capitol Hill, and the nonfarm payrolls report eyed.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Lit
We go through the data that traders need to be aware of - looking at what's expected and where the balance of risk sits.
We go through the charts that are front of mind - the key levels and where traders could look to take positions.
We hope this helps with your risk management and understanding of event risk, as well as the opportunity in front of us
Good...
Markets are in a strange state, waiting for things to happen. Westy and Blake have some big topics to cover so strap yourself in! We're talking yields, China, S&P500, Gold, Cable and much more.
Gold and silver have come up on the radar and both could be a tactical play as we eye a data storm brewing over the next two weeks.
One could argue that it was month-end flow, but the failure of the EUR and GER40 to be overly influenced by the above consensus French and Spanish CPI data suggests the market is becoming harder to shock by inflation reads. After the...
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss and deba
Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident.
However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed...
Westy and Blake are back to see what's going to inject some volatility into this market, with their sights firmly set on rates. Tune in for a look at the bigger macro story in equities and charts in forex, Bitcoin and more on The Trade Off
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
