Looking at FX 1-week implied (options) volatility, we are guided by how the market sees the upcoming event risk impacting how far price can extend and subsequently our potential trading environment. It’s the percentile rank that jumps out here, as most FX pairs and gold are closer to the bottom end of their own 12-month range – in essence, the market is not...
Westy and Blake are back with a look at post CPI markets and are on the lookout for the next best trade - join them for a packed show on macro, charts and trade ideas!
We saw JPYX form a rounded top around 860, which is usually a reversal pattern after a sustained move to the upside.
This was then followed by a clean break of the trendline that held since late last year on the daily chart, as well as break of 831 support.
Could we see the break play out and JPYX extend lower to 811.
One for the radar!
We saw USDJPY slight reversal on last month's closure. On the H4 timeframe, we had seen the market trade lower in a falling channel, which is usually a reversal pattern once breached. We had seen a series of LLs and LHs then the market made a low around 127.30 before leaving a new HL, signaling a potential reversal.
Market then breached and closed outside the...
After some wild price action across markets post-CPI, things are settling down and calmer heads prevail. It was a wild day for the day traders, and an exercise in trading over news, with positioning, liquidity and flow all factors that saw market players react aggressively.
The US core CPI print was a touch above consensus at 5.6% YoY, but the market seemed to do...
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss and deba
We roll into the new trading week, with 1-week FX volatility surprisingly sanguine, where we see most levels trading in the 25-50th percentile of its 12-month range. AUDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY seem to have the highest implied move - so this is where to look for potential movement (based on Friday’s closing levels). XAU is expected to hold a range of 1899 to 1832...
Time: 15 Feb 00:30 AEDT / 14 Feb 13:30 GMT
The economist's median estimate (we consider to be the consensus) – core CPI is eyed at 5.4% (down from 5.7% in Dec), with headline CPI eyed at 6.2% (from 6.5%).
*The Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast model currently sits at 5.6% YoY.
Also consider there will be some tweaks to the BLS CPI weightings today, so I will...
The US CPI print looms and markets could go either way - be prepared! We're talking sentiment, the dollar, S&P500, Gold, Eth, rates, GBPCAD and the Nikkei. Tune in for charts, macro, actionable trade ideas and quality banter.
In recent days we’ve heard bearish equity calls from prominent strategists at Morgan Stanley, JPM and Goldman Sachs all calling for lower levels in equity markets – as with any market call, it’s the logic and rationale that is of most interest, and it’s the idea that the investment bank sales team pitch to their clients. These calls help market players become more...
For the crypto ballers - ETHUSD (Ethereum) is front and centre - we see price backtesting the Nov highs, but having attempted numerous times to break the ceiling the bulls currently lack the impetus - with this consolidation we see a reduction in realised volatility (narrow Bollinger Bands), which suggests when it does break and close above resistance the prospect...
After last week's volatility & jam-packed eocnomic calendar, cross-asset volatility has surged, as traders rip up their views and reassess where we stand, and how central banks may react
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss and debate,
With the ASX200 testing the ATH's seen in August 2021, the question of what exactly is driving the flows has been asked more liberally by clients - While we can point to macro factors, such as a belief that we're closer to an end in the hiking cycle, USD weakness, and a China re-opening, our analysts look at 7 of the key attractions driving the strong performance...
Well, the broad-based USD rally on Friday was certainly impressive and caused shockwaves in commodities, with XAUUSD -2.8%, silver -4.8% and crude -3.6%. USD shorts, of which the market had built a sizeable position in, saw a change in the flow and covered.
As I explain below, I am not in the camp that we’re on for a new one-way USD bull market, as this would...
The BoE may have one more hike in them, but its 25bp at best with the market pricing terminal BoE rates at 4.27% by June – let’s see the next UK CPI print on 23 March and that could possibly seal the deal on a pause in the hiking cycle - the language from gov Bailey suggests a higher conviction of this playing out. UK gilts have found big buyers (10yr was -30bp,...
Westy and Blake will be back on their regular day this week and what a week it is!! If you're in need of some guidance during this event risk blockbuster week, be sure to tune in to The Trade Off: the big macro themes, juicy setups and more, every week.
A monster week of event risk awaits, with the FOMC, ECB & BoE announcing policy; a packed slate of big tech earnings; and key data releases galore, including the latest US nonfarm payrolls release.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss an
It has been clear of late that the ECB is one of, if not the most, determined G10 central banks when it comes to raising rates, tightening financial conditions, and attempting to bring inflation back under control. The battle against rampant inflation will continue at the February meeting, with another 50bps hike expected, as well as guidance accompanying the move...
