In this episode of ‘The Trade Off’, Blake and Chris Weston chat about the situation in the Ukraine and how it affects wider markets, the SPX, DAX, BTC, Crude, ARKK, Gold/Silver, EURNOK, Rates and Palladium. Join in and watch the show!
To many gold has come up firmly on the radar and is the flavour du jour – we see the triangle break targeting a move to $2060 – we see a pronounced cup and handle (best seen on the weekly), which now complete suggests an increased probability we see new all-time highs.
Price is testing the 1900 round number and sits up 5.6% for the month of February – the best...
Global Head of Research Chris Weston is back with As Good as Gold, taking us through the Gold market and it core influences. Get a holistic overview of where Gold is possibly headed with both fundamental and technical analysis. #macro #gold
Divergence between the BTP Bund spread (difference between Italian 10-year yield and German 10-year yield) and EURCHF has opened up. Have a watch to find out more.
Having liked AUDCAD longs as trade, the focus shifts away from here to how markets digest rates pricing – and notably that of US rates, where US swaps are pricing a 50% chance of a 50bp hike in the March FOMC meeting, and a small chance of an inter-meeting hike – something I feel is a very low probability.
Equity vol has kicked up and EM FX may start to look a...
We're bringing ‘The Trade Off’ to TradingView! This weekly trading series features Blake Morrow (ForexAnalytix) and our very own Chris Weston, as they engage in an energetic discussion of the financial markets — what’s hot, what’s not.
#trading #macro #gold
Global Head of Research Chris Weston is back with As Good as Gold, taking us through the Gold market and it core influences. Get a holistic overview of where Gold is possibly headed with both fundamental and technical analyses.
Arguably the focus last week was the incredible moves in the EU bond market, as the ECB opened the door to rate hikes in 2022 – the market has responded pricing 50bp of hikes this year from the ECB, with the deposit rate expected to rise to +61bp in 3 years. EUR was bid vs all currencies on the week, only outdone by the SEK.
On the week, the biggest absolute...
Everywhere we look we see a market has now priced in such an aggressive hiking cycle in the coming 12-36 months – in the US the markets are pricing 5 hikes over the coming 12 months – in the UK we see this also at 5 hikes, Canada 6.4 hikes, Australia 4.6 hikes, NZ 7.5 hikes and even in Europe the market is eyeing 35bp of hikes over 12 months.
The elephant in the...
With OPEC meeting out Wednesday both Brent and WTI crude are front and centre this week – we also know higher crude prices are key for inflation expectations, and the move into $90 has supported US 5Y5Y swaps at 2.48%.
Traders are buying into crude to hedge against sustainably high inflation, but It feels like the market is long of crude as a hedge against...
