I now look at Aussie swaps pricing and see a 44% chance of a hike in May and a 20% of 50bp by June. I don’t think this is wholly exuberant although looking further out the rates curve and 8 hikes for this year seems rich and 13 by end-2023 is going to cause genuine problems if it comes to fruition – one has to question who is trading these instruments that far...
With the RBA meeting in play on Tuesday, here are a few variables traders can look at to assess the skew of risk – there are obviously many other moving parts, but could the RBA deliver a surprise?
Here are a few core considerations.
1) Rates pricing – 0% chance of a hike (either 10bp or 25bp) for this meeting, but we see 170bp (6.8 hikes) priced for end-2022,...
In this episode, Chris and Blake are joined by no other than Chi, aka Tracy Shuchart, Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Hedge Fund Telemetry, an expert on all things oil/energy, emerging markets and more. Make sure you tune in for this one!
There's a nice shape to the crypto moves of late, and Ethereum is one we’re seeing better flow with 82% of open positions held long. Traditionally retail derivative traders will have a skew towards countering a trend, especially one that’s been in play for 15 bars and has only really seen one down day in the time.
The set-up is clean – we broke the downtrend on...
Chris and Blake are back at it! Tune in for a smorgasboard of market banter, trade ideas, charts we have our eyes on and everything that's hot (or not!)
Scroll out on the USDJPY monthly and we can see price pushing a trend break drawn from the 1978 low and that intersects along three lower highs (2015, 1998 and 2015) – we now see USDJPY has broken through the 30-year downtrend and will need a close above 116.70 to print a monthly close through this well-defined trend resistance.
This seems...
Blake and Chris will be dissecting the markets again and looking at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading the current volatile conditions and the FOMC meeting!
