Global Head of Research Chris Weston is back with As Good as Gold, taking us through the Gold market and it core influences. Get a holistic overview of where Gold is possibly headed with both fundamental and technical analysis. #macro #gold
Divergence between the BTP Bund spread (difference between Italian 10-year yield and German 10-year yield) and EURCHF has opened up. Have a watch to find out more.
Having liked AUDCAD longs as trade, the focus shifts away from here to how markets digest rates pricing – and notably that of US rates, where US swaps are pricing a 50% chance of a 50bp hike in the March FOMC meeting, and a small chance of an inter-meeting hike – something I feel is a very low probability.
Equity vol has kicked up and EM FX may start to look a...
We're bringing ‘The Trade Off’ to TradingView! This weekly trading series features Blake Morrow (ForexAnalytix) and our very own Chris Weston, as they engage in an energetic discussion of the financial markets — what’s hot, what’s not.
#trading #macro #gold
Global Head of Research Chris Weston is back with As Good as Gold, taking us through the Gold market and it core influences. Get a holistic overview of where Gold is possibly headed with both fundamental and technical analyses.
Arguably the focus last week was the incredible moves in the EU bond market, as the ECB opened the door to rate hikes in 2022 – the market has responded pricing 50bp of hikes this year from the ECB, with the deposit rate expected to rise to +61bp in 3 years. EUR was bid vs all currencies on the week, only outdone by the SEK.
On the week, the biggest absolute...
Everywhere we look we see a market has now priced in such an aggressive hiking cycle in the coming 12-36 months – in the US the markets are pricing 5 hikes over the coming 12 months – in the UK we see this also at 5 hikes, Canada 6.4 hikes, Australia 4.6 hikes, NZ 7.5 hikes and even in Europe the market is eyeing 35bp of hikes over 12 months.
The elephant in the...
With OPEC meeting out Wednesday both Brent and WTI crude are front and centre this week – we also know higher crude prices are key for inflation expectations, and the move into $90 has supported US 5Y5Y swaps at 2.48%.
Traders are buying into crude to hedge against sustainably high inflation, but It feels like the market is long of crude as a hedge against...
Lots of chatter in the market about the US yield curve headed ever closer towards inversion – clearly, much of this move has been driven by short-term rates which have seen 2yr Treasuries push to 1.19% (the highest since Feb 2020), with fed funds futures pricing close to 5 hikes through 2022.
I have shown the US 2s v 10s spread, but US 5s v 30s is certainly...
XAUUSD is testing the August 2020 downtrend and requires a close above 1850 to get the bulls excited – if gold is going to have a more explosive upside move it requires far greater involvement from CTAs (systematic trend-following funds) and FOMO buyers.
The near-term flow has been bullish, but the long-term downtrend could be an area of greater supply – a...
