NZDUSD is approaching our first support at 0.6720 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal swing low support) where a strong bounce might occur above this level to our major resistance at 0.6829 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see...
XAUUSD is approaching its resistance at 1307.84 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is could reverse down to its support at 1297.82 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is expected.
Trade set up
‘Buy long’ on daily open with caution as current price closes above the 10day EMA with stops below the recent daily close or those with higher risk appetite, a close below the 10day EMA.
Target levels of 64.30 followed by the 50% retracement of the previous major move around $68.30 and looking to add to our position as price make a new higher-high...
Trade set up - We are waiting on a daily close above $1.1345 before entering long. If price breaks through this level, we see significant potential for a strong upward move towards our target price of $1.1491, our stop to be set at $1.1256.
Why we like this trade - Based on our technical analysis the pair is presenting a variety of reasons to have this trade...
Let the market force the trade, wait for a break of the current range and ride gold into the December highs.
There are obviously many considerations we should assess when trading any market. But, two that stand out when trading gold, especially when it's strongly trending, are:
1) Whether gold is going up/down in other G10 currencies, and not just USDs
2) ...
Trade setup - Price is telling us the market has reduced the worse-case scenario hedges, and we still like GBP longs from here. We like GBP too versus the EUR and CHF, but most of the flow remains in GBPUSD. The preference for cable is to stay long into 1.2990/1.3000, with stops below 1.2820, which as we can see is the downtrend drawn from the September high, as...
Why we like the trade - Gold is consolidating following its break above a multi-month channel line and formed a strong uptrend since the August low. The congestion is now taking shape in a consolidation pennant, most visible on the four-hour and daily time frame. A breakout to the topside and a test of $1300 level will evolve quickly, perhaps even going on to...
Trade set up - That daily chart shows a set-up that is remarkably similar to price action seen through November 2017. Where, after a sell-off and reversal, price consolidated in a triangle pattern. In both cases, we can see stochastic momentum making a series of lower highs, and should price now find sellers off trend resistance the first target is ¥112.25, where...
Trade set up - Enter on a daily close above the 10 day EMA with stops below the previous weekly low of 58.35 and a short-term price target of 70.00 - 71.00, looking to add to the position once broken above the downtrend channel.
Why we like this trade - Technically speaking, price looks to have found some support around the Feb 2017 high after the recent 33%...
Trade set up - Waiting for a pullback in the pair and confirmation of support before entering long, as this enables us to manage risk in a better way. However, aggressive traders can look at longs at the current market price. Stops set at $1235 and a take profit at $1262.
Why we like this trade - We've had gold on 'high-watch' for some time now and given the...
Trade setup - While sterling volatility had been widely expected to rise as the Brexit clock ticked down, we are happy to remain bearish on the pair in the short-term. We are looking for a short entry at 1.7380, with a stop just above the previous major high at 1.7490. With the Brexit vote likely to fail and the range of outcomes from here so diverse we target...
Trade Set Up – We would be looking to enter on a daily close above 5780 with stops confirmed once entered, and a target level of 5980-6000.
Why we like this trade – Whilst history is no guarantee of future price action it is important to note that a correlation in a Dec move over the past 10 years has yielded an average of +2.74%, all of which starts from the...
Trade set up
Tactically buyers of NZDUSD can position to enter a buy trade either after a closing break of resistance 0.6883 (16 November high), or after a retracement and retest of the top of the bullish flag pattern around 0.6790. A break out of the flag pattern has given us the confidence to trade this from the long side. We are targeting 0.7100 in weeks,...
Trade set up - We are cautiously optimistic when it comes to USDCAD and looking to trade the pair as a proxy of US crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS). We enter the trade long at the current price of 1.3295, with small position sizing and tight stops set at 1.3200, for a break of the bullish channel. However, if we see a break of 1.3182 (22 November low) our...
Trade set up
After a 13.7% fall from January 2018 highs, the price has made a bottoming formation, and we are looking to add to our previous long position. Our bullish bias needs to be confirmed by a weekly close above the resistance of 0.7304 (as highlighted on the chart) where we are looking to enter a long trade. The target is 0.7450 representing the 38.2%...
Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if...
Trade set up: AUDUSD enjoyed a rally of 133-pips on the session, which to put into context was the biggest one-day move since March 2017, and was in effect a 3.1 standard deviation move. So, the move in price was punchy and was statistically significant. These moves relative to recent behaviour are rare.
Why we like it: This abrupt move broke through a...
If you like volatility GBP is the place to look, and we can see one-month GBPUSD implied volatility (vol) at 14.0%, relative to say AUDUSD and EURUSD vol at 9.34% and 7.57% respectively.
To put this into perspective, the implied move in GBPUSD over the coming month sits at 413-points from spot, and this expiry encompasses the expected Commons vote on 10 December....
