Summary: The US dollar is trading back lower, particularly against pro-cyclical currencies, on the news that Trump gave the order to allow the formal transition to proceed, and after sources indicate Biden will nominate former Fed Chair Janet Yellen today as his Secretary of Treasury. This move adds to the longer term bearish outlook for the US dollar.
Today’s...
Summary: Late yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced he was pulling the plug on a number of emergency Fed facilities. The market met the news with a collective shrug, but it could prove pivotal down the road. Meanwhile, the long end of the US yield curve is generally failing to support the reflationary narrative as FX generally fails to confirm...
Summary: The market sentiment has soured since New York City last night warned that all public schools will be closed from today. We also have the specter of an EU budget impasse to consider. In FX, the riskier currencies have headed lower versus the US dollar, with the euro under modest pressure as well, though the market seems asleep at the wheel on possible EU...
Summary: The market is positioning hopefully for a rapid roll-out of an effective vaccine, figuring that this will trigger a global reflationary boom, and figuring that a weakening US dollar will be a key contributor as a gridlocked US political system leaves only a very dovish Fed as the key actor in providing support for the recovery.
Today’s FX Trading...
Summary: The Covid-19 pandemic is driving endless short-term headaches that are likely to get only worse in the near term, especially in the US. This will provoke a considerable new policy response that will mostly likely be felt most strongly when the galloping efforts of scientists are rapidly putting the Covid-19 crisis in the mirror sometime next year....
Summary: The news of a possibly effective Covid-19 vaccine jolted currencies in a sometimes confusing way, but beyond near term volatility, the rising promise of an effective Covid-19 vaccine might bring forward the longer term weakening of the US dollar.
Today’s FX Trading focus:
Are we on the cusp of an effective vaccine and what does that mean for the USD?...
Summary: Since election day, nearly all assets are enjoying a strong surge, from government- and high yield bonds to stocks and precious metals, while the US dollar is the flipside of this development, weakening sharply. This despite at least two years of political gridlock likely preventing US fiscal stimulus from flowing. Is the market assuming that a...
Summary: The US mainstream media and polling industry has fatally eroded its credibility in this election cycle after the apparent 8-10% lead Biden enjoyed in their polls was a complete mirage and Trump has made this election another nail-biter on par with 2016, even amid a higher overall turnout. The final key takeaways for markets still hang in the balance, but...
Summary: The market seems to be putting on the reflationary trade today ahead of the uncertainties of the US Election as the USD and JPY wilt, while the AUD rushes higher after brushing off the well flagged easing moves from the RBA overnight. Any strong turn-out among Democrats could support an extension of this development, while a contested election scenario...
Summary: The wider market turbulence boosted the USD and especially the JPY as USDJPY eyes the big 104.00 level this morning and many other JPY crosses have broken down. Is this a positioning clear-out of a nervous market unable to sustain a position ahead of the big US election unknowns? Hard to know, but it may also be hard for traders to sustain directional...
Summary: The mounting Covid-19 toll and perhaps concerns of a the rising uncertainty on whether the Democrats can achieve a full Blue Wave outcome have risk sentiment on edge. US long yields have backed down aggressively and this has helped the JPY rise to the top of the pack, with big levels swinging into view in EURJPY and AUDJPY in particular. We are six days...
Summary: The USD has weakened across the board and US long yields have risen to their highest level since June, unlike yield developments elsewhere. The strength in the Chinese renminbi needs a closer look as the fall in USDCNY accelerates, and the JPY is suddenly waking up this morning as USDJPY slips back below 105.00. Elsewhere, sterling complacency is...
Summary: Sterling concern on the Brexit talks status lurched a few notches higher as the UK refuses to sit down for renewed talks until the EU makes concessions. Elsewhere, dovish jawboning overnight from an RBA official as the market shifting its expectations lower for the rate cut at the November 3 RBA meeting. Elsewhere, today is the deadline for US House...
Summary: The US dollar continues to meander back and forth on the rise and fall in stimulus hopes, with a new timeline early this week for the prospects of a deal after a House Speaker Pelosi ultimatum. Our focus this week elsewhere is on AUD after the sell-off last week on indications that the RBA is readying a proper QE programme, and on GBP as the market...
Summary: There will be no Brexit talk deadline today, a relief for sterling bulls, but a situation that merely extends the uncertainty. Elsewhere, the RBA November 3 meeting is likely shaping up for a new easing push from Lowe and company as their overnight musings on longer term QE took the AUD down a few notches. Elsewhere, we watch the relative strength race...
Summary: The US dollar and Japanese yen surged yesterday, on possible sudden safe haven seeking within G10 on the recognition that the short-term two-way risks for sterling are significant ahead of the Brexit negotiation deadline tomorrow. GBPUSD plunged back below 1.3000 but depending on how headlines shape up tomorrow on the status of negotiations could find...
FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press their case pre-election?
Summary: The US dollar closed last week below important support levels as investors position for a large US stimulus deal and wax positive on a Biden presidency as odds continue to tilt his way in the latest polls, easing fears of a contested election. Elsewhere, China initiated a...
Summary: It is difficult to craft any cogent narrative for the US dollar at the moment based on near-term and longer-term stimulus prospects and election outcomes, but surely we are set for a directional move in sterling soon of some magnitude as the October 15 Boris Johnson deadline for Brexit negotiations comes into view next week.
Trading focus:
Something...
