Technical objective achieved! The S&P 500 index has reached its all-time high, offering a bullish V-shaped recovery since the bearish shock of early April against the backdrop of the trade war between the USA and its main trading partners.
In our previous TradingView analysis, we highlighted numerous favorable technical signals since mid-April in favor of this...
With the US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting on July 30 fast approaching, the markets are scrutinizing the slightest signals likely to indicate an inflexion in monetary policy. While a rate cut seems unlikely in the short term, it cannot be ruled out altogether. Despite Chairman Jerome Powell's firm stance, some influential members of the Monetary Policy Committee...
Has the price of gold made its final high point in a bullish cycle, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems to be beginning to ease? The answer to this question cannot be a simple yes, as there are so many fundamental factors influencing gold's trend on the commodities market.
But it is true that, in terms of technical analysis, signals of the...
The release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due this Friday June 27, is the major macroeconomic event of the week. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation indicator, the PCE could play a decisive role in determining the direction of US monetary policy in the second half of 2025.
1) PCE inflation is the Fed's favorite...
As tensions in the Middle East between Iran, Israel and the United States escalate, speculation about a $130 oil barrel resurfaces on the markets. While the recent rise in prices is very real, fuelled by geopolitics, there is nothing in the fundamentals or in the technical analysis to justify such an extreme scenario for the time being. Unless... the Strait of...
While the fundamentals are still very complicated on the stock market at present, with the FED intransigent, trade war/diplomacy (deadline set for July 9 to reach trade agreements) and extreme geopolitical tensions, can the bitcoin price withstand all these challenges and continue its annual bull run over the summer? Let's take a look at a number of elements,...
The US Federal Reserve (FED) recently updated its economic projections against a backdrop of growing uncertainty. It is now openly concerned about a scenario of stagflation, a combination of weak growth, persistent inflation and rising unemployment. This concern stems in particular from the as yet unquantified impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump...
Geopolitics is in the spotlight this week, along with the FED's monetary policy decision. Geopolitical news is covered by the general media, so there's no need here to repeat information that's accessible to everyone. We therefore propose to review our selection of stock market barometers which, in our opinion, best measure the intensity of geopolitical risk.
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Several fundamental factors will have a strong influence on the stock market this week, including trade diplomacy, geopolitical tensions and the FED's monetary policy decision on Wednesday June 18.
1) The FED on June 18, the fundamental highlight of the week
The stock market week will be dominated by one fundamental event: the US Federal Reserve's (FED)...
In our April 15 analysis, we questioned the likelihood of a low point for the S&P 500 index based on technical analysis considerations. The VIX (the implied volatility of the S&P 500) also showed bearish technical characteristics (inverted correlation with the S&P 500), and indeed, the equity market offered a solid rebound against a backdrop of trade...
Hello everyone,
On May 6, we brought you a technical update on the USD/HKD rate (US dollar VS Hong Kong dollar), as the exchange rate was testing the PEG level of 7.75, defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities. The PEG therefore provided solid support, and the exchange rate rebounded strongly. It is now under resistance. We'd like to take this opportunity...
This week, which runs from Monday June 9 to Friday June 13, sees two fundamental factors which will have a strong impact on the stock market: the continuation of the trade diplomacy phase which is currently acting as a fundamental red thread (particularly between China and the United States) and, above all, the US inflation update according to the PCI price index...
1) GOLD, a mature bull cycle running out of technical steam
For over a year, gold (XAU/USD) has been the undisputed leader of the precious metals segment, driven by a powerful cocktail of technical and macroeconomic factors. Long-term bullish targets, identified via an Elliott wave reading, have now been reached or are very close to being reached, suggesting a...
Liquidity is a key factor in market finance. Without it, risky assets in the stock market, equities and cryptocurrencies lose their fuel. Over the cycles, one thing has become clear: the direction of financial markets is strongly correlated with that of global liquidity. But liquidity is not a single indicator: it is organized into three complementary layers....
1) The bitcoin cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving ends at the end of 2025
The bitcoin price reached 11,900 US dollars on Thursday May 22, and many investors are wondering whether the bullish cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving is already over. In terms of bitcoin's time cycle, the answer is negative, as all past cycles have ended at the end of the year...
The MSCI World stock market index set a new all-time record during the trading session of Monday June 2, wiping out the entire stock market shock of February/March, which saw the global equity market lose 20%. This technical signal still needs to be confirmed at the end of the week at the next weekly technical close. If this bullish technical break were to be...
The European Central Bank (ECB) unveils a new monetary policy decision this Thursday, June 5, and the consensus is for further cuts in all three ECB interest rates. The ECB's key rate (the main rate at which banks refinance with the ECB) currently stands at 2.40% and should be cut to 2.15% according to the analyst consensus, in other words, a return of the ECB's...
Several fundamental factors will have a strong impact on financial markets in this first week of June, as uncertainty surrounding the trade war remains high. However, there was some good news last Friday, with US PCE inflation continuing to move towards the Fed's target despite tariffs.
This week, two fundamental factors are under close scrutiny: US labor market...
