The Fed and ECB chiefs have kept their promise not to touch on the monetary policy issues in Jackson Hole, but Janet Yellen has suddenly succeeded more in that. The dollar lost ground on Friday after the release of text version of Yellen speech which was generally useless for investors. The absence of any clues was a signal for the reduction of dollar positions...
Before the ECB's September meeting, each word uttered by the ECB's Mario Draghi could provoke market swings. Its because the expectations for the fate of QE have already accumulated a critical mass, which simply needs a way out. In light of the announcement that the speech of the head of the ECB in Jackson Hole will ignore monetary policy, the Draghi's speech in...
The German economy has revealed signs of slowdown, despite the widespread economic pickup in the euro area and the concomitant strengthening of the euro. A number of data released on Friday pointed to a slowdown in exports and imports in the second quarter. Investment optimism also declined, probably due to the strengthening of the euro, overshadowing the...
Preliminary data has been released on British economy which revealed little to no positive surprises for Pound investors. The country's GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter, but export growth slowed to 0.7% despite a 1% forecast. This suggests that the devaluation of the pound that occurred after the country left the European Union has exhausted itself as a...
The future of OPEC's output cut deal will be determined at a meeting in November, said the Oil minister of Kuwait. This news was a signal that members of the cartel may revise quotas for production earlier than expected. In May, the members of the organization decided to extend the agreement for another nine months, until March 2018, but pressure from the shale...
US joint military exercises in South Korea which risked to run across ultimately response from North Korean leader, has been set off. It may be a new reserve for exacerbation of the geopolitical situation on Korean peninsula. The market so far does not lend itself to provocations, the VIX index is in negative territory, gold is showing sluggish attempts to return...
On gold, on the daily chart, we rested a falling star at the upper boundary of the range. Also, the body of the shooting star blocked the previous candle, thereby also absorbing. Now we have a very good signal for the opening of short positions.
The first option is selling at the opening of the market. The second option is to sell from the middle of a shooting...
So, yesterday Trump decided to mix the tedious efforts on second-guessing the Fed's messages with a good bearish signal. It was a simply move: disbanding the advisory councils on investment matters and refusing to create new ones. Obviously, he himself can not figure out how to put up money on government scale, so as a result we have shifted timing for the...
The verbal intervention of San Francisco FRB head John Williams has offset dovish July Fed Minutes, underpinning dollar growth. The dollar went on the offensive after the policymaker’s statement that the Fed is halfway to normalizing rates and additional stimulus should be gradually "taken out of the game." This is the second positive assessment of the economic...
According to investors, a clear recovery of the eurozone economy has long convinced them that it's time to begin to tighten the valve on the pipe through which the ECB pumps the economy with cheap money. The growth of the euro in this case began to be reflected in a fairly one-sided analysis by investors of Mario Draghi's speeches, a partial search for hints on...
On the daily chart we have a beautiful candle-swallowing - an obvious bearish signal. Since we do not have levels in proshom, on which we can glue our candles, we take the psychological level at 4000 as a benchmark. But it is this psychological level that has not been knocked back (not returned under it) and our absorption may be a common trap.
Of course, you can...
EUR/USD formed an absorption on the four-hour chart, which rested against the support zone, limited by a strong level of 1.1714, and a local level of 1.1689. Risk and buy a pair at current prices.
Oleg Svirgun
Stock markets develop a bullish momentum received on Monday amid a suspension of threat exchange between North Korea and the US, but to say that the degree of tension has dropped to an insignificant level is too early to say. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un decided to take a break from the escalation of the conflict, postponing the launch of the missiles, but at...
World markets kicked off the week with relief, as the degree of tension on the Korean peninsula eased after statements by high-ranking US military officials that a nuclear war with North Korea is not foreseen in the short term. This also reduced the likelihood of the exchange of missile strikes, the main potential cause of the escalation of the military conflict,...
The currency pair is significantly oversold - so it's worth buying a pair. To avoid the risks of buying on the current, set a limit order to break through the level.
Buy Stop 0.7640, SL=0.7500, TP=0.8300
First of all, short overview on consumer prices in the US. The figures on producer prices, wholesale inventories released this week, clearly indicated a slowdown in consumer demand in the US, as we discussed in yesterday's note. July inflation showed that our fears were justified. The monthly change was 0.1%, with a forecast of 0.2%, which, with the clouds...
July US labor market update was an excellent reason to induce a correction on the dollar, suppressing upside momentum on EURUSD. Bringing some psychological relief to greenback bidders, the report however left the fundamental picture relatively untouched, since the Phillips curve in the American economy, as the data for the second quarter showed, is far from the...
The second week of August features by a rather sluggish start as the economic calendar is relatively boring and most of the sensitive data have already found their way to the market.
So the first marked miss in the eurozone's macroeconomic statistics happened in the German manufacturing sector - output fell by 1.1% in June after rising for five consecutive...
