First of all, short overview on consumer prices in the US. The figures on producer prices, wholesale inventories released this week, clearly indicated a slowdown in consumer demand in the US, as we discussed in yesterday's note. July inflation showed that our fears were justified. The monthly change was 0.1%, with a forecast of 0.2%, which, with the clouds...
July US labor market update was an excellent reason to induce a correction on the dollar, suppressing upside momentum on EURUSD. Bringing some psychological relief to greenback bidders, the report however left the fundamental picture relatively untouched, since the Phillips curve in the American economy, as the data for the second quarter showed, is far from the...
The second week of August features by a rather sluggish start as the economic calendar is relatively boring and most of the sensitive data have already found their way to the market.
So the first marked miss in the eurozone's macroeconomic statistics happened in the German manufacturing sector - output fell by 1.1% in June after rising for five consecutive...
Relatively quiet period for greenback has stretched to the end of this week as the main stain on the currency has been completely priced in the market and now it is waiting for the fresh portion of gloom (or positive news, what is perhaps even more preferable).
In the news field, the report on activity in the non-manufacturing sector from ISM became a failure....
So greenback short players finally reached for the level of 92.50, staging breakthrough of 1.19 on EURUSD. In our view these moves are a signs of dollar bottoming out as investors adjust their portfolio with fine-entered greenback longs as the updates on US economy is slowly but surely beginning to improve. The US consumer pleased us with increased expenditures,...
Consumer spending in the US, a key indicator of inflationary pressures increased in June faster than expected, but could not provide significant boost to the dollar, which renewed slump on Wednesday. Manufacturing sector health also didn't give rise to disappointment, but seems there is nothing to inspire Dollar bulls at the moment . Dollar index moves near the...
The oil market nudged up in Asian session extending gains to London trading, as Saudi Arabia's promise to cut exports by 1M barrels provides significant sentiment boost, trying to make out the way to the top under the yoke of growing supplies of American producers. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia attempts to exercise complex approach to show traders that supplies are...
The British pound maintains its defenses anticipating positive rhetoric of Mark Carney at a meeting of the Bank of England on August 3. Fears of unrestrained growth in inflation due to the devaluation of the pound were refuted after data on consumer prices for June showed the first slowdown in a few months. Inflation is above the target level of 2%, significantly...
FOMC yesterday meeting became an acknowledgment that the pace of policy normalization planned by the regulator creates visible risks of cooling the economy. After two rounds of tightening since the beginning of this year, consumer inflation in the US has been steadily declining for four consecutive months - from 2.7% in February to 1.6% in June. It does not at all...
The common currency has trimmed down losses against the dollar after a weak start on Tuesday, as investors continue to get rid of dollar positions while waiting for the cautious tone of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen at tomorrow's meeting. Interest rate futures rule out possibility of the rate increase on Wednesday meeting, as consumer inflation, according to official...
Oil prices break into green area expecting that the OPEC meeting will not be spent in vain and the participants will find ways to pare their production capacities The weekly report of Baker Hughes showed that the drilling activity rested on some ceiling, as the growth of active drilling rigs ceased. Last week, their number fell from 765 to 764 units. After US oil...
So, key points on the main economic events of this week were set forth in the analytical notes of its first half. Today, we can recap the meeting of the Japanese Central Bank and provide some additional clues on the ECB meeting with regard to the today’s data.
BoJ announced that they’re not yet going to close valve of the cash pipe, continuing to pump the economy...
On the weekly chart, we have a horizontal level of 87.90, which the price has "seen" more than once. That's from him and try to buy.
Buy Limit 87.90, SL=87.10, TP=93.20.
Promising Chinese data and the dollar rout on Tuesday became short-lived growth factors in oil prices. After a sharp recovery by more than 1%, a pullback followed, returning the market to its starting position. Prices continue to remain sensitive to US production data, but a steady decline in commercial inventories (EIA, API data) seems to have exhausted itself as...
Oil prices posted material gains on Tuesday before the release of inventories report from the API but continued to stay under pressure due to uncontrolled production increase in Libya, which exceeded 1M barrels per day. In April, production in the country eroded by the civil war was only 500 thousand barrels per day. On July 22 there will be a technical meeting of...
The Asian session has paved an upward trend for commodities and stock markets after the release of spectacular figures on the Chinese economy. The growth in industrial production and retail sales, the two key drivers of the economy exceeded expectations, while GDP for the second quarter grew by 6.9% compared to the same period last year....
Daily chart: the price bounced off the broken downtrend, the horizontal level + is now forming a "bullish absorption" candle model. Multiple signals at one price point. We are waiting for further development.
The European currency made piece with the US dollar for several days maintaining relative equilibrium around 1.14. Two major rivals suspend struggle amid a leveling yield curve in the German and US bond markets. Talking heads optimism over global growth momentum caused investors to dampen low-yield bonds while the release of the weak report of the NFP and Fed...
