Yesterday gold traded over $2,724 to hit its highest level since mid-December. Back then, gold sold off over the following five sessions for an overall 5% loss. Could history repeat? It’s certainly possible. Last month’s sell-off came despite the daily MACD hovering around ‘neutral’ so there was no indication that gold was overbought. Today’s daily MACD is higher...
Yesterday, front-month WTI reversed an early drift lower and surged to its highest level in six months, coming within 50 cents of $80 per barrel. So much for the expected consolidation, let alone a significant pullback. Crude oil is on course for a month’s-worth of back-to-back weekly gains, which is quite the recovery given the near-relentless selling pressure...
Gold dipped sharply on Monday. The sell-off was such that gold briefly dropped below $2,660 before buyers came in to support prices. This was an unexpected move, given that gold came within two dollars of hitting $2,700 on Friday afternoon, to trade at its highest level in a month. But, as noted previously, bulls should be reassured by the recent price action....
Crude oil has pulled back a touch this morning with front-month WTI trading around $77. It could be that the market is ready to consolidate after a significant bull run, which began just before Christmas. WTI is up 12% since 20th December, and 15% from its last significant low point, hit earlier that month. A bounce in crude prices has been overdue for a while...
On Friday afternoon, gold came within two dollars of breaking back above $2,700. But it was unable to make the final heave, and it has drifted lower overnight and this morning. Despite this, gold has made impressive upside progress since the New Year, even as the US dollar has pushed higher. The Dollar Index is trading at fresh 26-month highs, just below 110.00....
Crude oil shot higher in early trade this morning. Front-month WTI has added close to 3% and has surged back above $75 per barrel. This takes the price back up to levels last seen on 10th October, and the move adds legs to the current rally which began before the Christmas break. Credit for the latest strong upside move is being given to the freezing weather...
The overnight price move in gold is certainly constructive from a bullish perspective. It has now recovered the losses incurred over Friday and into Monday, pulling further away from the $2,640 danger level, and now closing in on $2,670. The fact that it is doing this despite the strength of the US dollar, and rising bond yields, is testament to gold’s robustness,...
There’s undoubted skittishness in crude oil at the moment, in much the same way that it can be seen across US equities and stock indices. Again, this comes as traders and investors come to terms with a possible market turning point, and struggle to adjust accordingly. Crude looks as if it is breaking out from its long-running downtrend. This morning, front-month...
Gold was trading in positive territory this morning, but not by enough to take it out of its ‘danger zone’. Yesterday morning it hit a low of $2,625 before the unexpected, sharp sell-off in the US dollar related to Trump Tariff speculation, gave all dollar-denominated commodities a lift. It pushed up towards $2,650 before falling back below $2,620 just before the...
Crude oil was weaker in early trade, pulling back from levels last seen in mid-October. This followed an impressive rally which began on Friday 27th December. This saw front-month WTI break out from a longstanding downtrend which can trace its origins back to September 2023, punctuated by a series of lower highs and lower lows. But the early weakness quickly...
US stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. They were firmer in early trade yesterday morning too. But that didn’t stop them turning lower as the session progressed. Yesterday’s move saw the S&P 500 hit lows last seen on Friday, 20th December when investors were dumping stocks following the Fed’s ‘hawkish rate cut’ from the previous Wednesday....
Asian Pacific stock indices were mixed overnight, with outsized losses across Chinese indices. This followed the release of another disappointing Manufacturing PMI, even though the Services sector continues to show expansion at a better-than-expected rate. It was a similar situation across Europe which had to deal with a dismal set of Manufacturing PMIs. But it’s...
While it’s true that yesterday wasn’t completely void of economic events, a disappointing Chicago PMI can’t really shoulder the blame, or take the credit, for the wild stock market swings that took place. The Dow was down 700 points first thing, on no news. It then rallied 500 soon after the US open, before dropping 200 in the last hour of trading. In S&P terms,...
Gold has had a tremendous year, having added 35% from early January to its new all-time high in October. Perhaps it’s more accurate to say that it had an incredible eight months, rallying from below $2,000 in mid-February to $2,790 at the end of October, for a gain of 40%. But it has struggled since then. Fundamentally, there’s evidence that certain newer, and...
Last night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect...
US stock indices finished lower on Tuesday with the broad-based, domestically-focused Russell 2000 leading the decline. The Russell represents US mid-to-smaller-cap stocks, and closed down 1.2%. It has now lost over 5% since making a fresh all-time high three weeks ago, after rallying 11% in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory in early November. The Dow has...
Gold continues to struggle to regain its upside momentum. It was flat yesterday, and has drifted lower this morning. It is now trading back in a band of support/resistance around $2,630-$2,640. It doesn’t feel as if the selling pressure is over. While it could be exhausted if prices can maintain current levels, a retest of $2,600 cannot be ruled out. And a break...
US stock index futures began the week on the front foot this morning. All four majors were trading in positive territory, shrugging off a mixed close on Friday night, and a generally disappointing week. Only the tech-heavy NASDAQ registered a gain last week, and this was just a modest 0.3%. The S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Dow and Russell 2000 lost 1.8% and 2.7%...
