Our View
We hold a favorable view of the Mini HSI Index Futures contract in the short-term on likely policy stimulus; but we prefer to wait out any short-term corrections before positioning for a near-term tactical rally.
Due to medium-term structural concerns and still-weak confidence among businesses and consumers, it will be a while before the market trades...
On the daily timeframe, EURUSD was rejected off a strong dynamic resistance zone around 1.11.
On the 4-hourly timeframe, EURUSD can be seen falling back into a rising channel after a fake-out that did not sustain.
RSI slipped into bearish territory and bearish divergence hints at retracement to test support around 1.085.
USDCNH continues on its downtrend after being rejected off previous dynamic support level around 7.16 zone that now serves as resistance.
Potential short term rebound to 7.125 (R1) that would be a good entry for short position with a downside target level around 7.062 (S1).
The GBPUSD broke out of a bullish pennant which sets a technical upside target around 1.30. This bullish expectation is also in line with the broader uptrend since November where GBPUSP steadily climbed from a low of 1.21 to hovering around 1.28 now.
On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD is headed to test previous resistance zone around 1.283 (R1) and we expect a...
Our View
Markets have rallied to record highs thanks to growing optimism that the US will be able to tame inflation without triggering a recession; and that the Fed will cut interest rates in 1H 2024. In a soft landing, we expect investors to start looking for bargain-buying opportunities in overlooked corners of the market including small caps.
From a...
The Nifty kicked off Monday with a gap up, propelled by BJP's exceptional performance in the state election. Strong domestic cues and the return of foreign capital into Indian equities have supported the upside momentum with markets witnessing the biggest one-day rise in over one year.
Nifty 50 formed a long bull candle on the daily chart with a lower shadow....
The USDJPY scored a highest daily spike since April on 31 October after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced their decision to keep short term interest rates unchanged at -0.1%. Despite the strong upward move to hit a 12-month high, technical setup on the USDJPY suggests that a correction to the downside is highly probable.
USDJPY is indeed in a broad uptrend since...
Our View
We expect the Yen to remain weak against the USD for the remainder of the year, supporting USD/JPY long positions. We believe the BoJ is more concerned about slipping back into deflation and wants to avoid raising rates until it is certain that sustainable 2% inflation has been achieved - supported by higher wage growth translating into higher...
Expressing Our View
We expect the AUD to remain weak against the USD, supporting AUD/USD short positions. We believe that the RBA’s tightening cycle is over, supported by rising unemployment figures and moderating inflation. On the other hand, USD should continue to stand tall as Treasury yields climb and the “Higher for Longer” interest rate narrative gains...
The PBOC has repeatedly fixed its daily reference rate for the onshore yuan (CNY) at levels below estimates. But measures from the PBoC to support the Yuan has not been effective in changing the trend amidst a slew of economic stress (property slump, rising unemployment, deflation fears, etc) that may drive the offshore yuan (CNH) to historic lows.
The latest...
Greenback strengthens as US inflation eases but at slower-than-expected pace.
Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation in the US eased to 6.4% year-over-year in January, lower than the previous month increase of 6.5%, but higher than market consensus of 6.2%. The outperforming inflation data once again reinforces...
On Friday, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February improved to a 13-month high at 66.4, beating market consensus of 65 and previous month data at 64.9. The dollar-bullish data release boosted the greenback against major currencies like the Euro, British Pound, Aussie dollar, Japanese yen and more.
Moving our attention to the US Dollar/Offshore...
After the blockbuster US nonfarm payrolls data published last Friday that sent the US Dollar Index to a 5-weeks high this week, most currency pairs have retreated against the greenback.
Looking at the EURUSD daily chart, technical setup suggests further correction to the downside to retest and establish support zones before resuming the uptrend. A bear pennant...
The USDJPY had broken above the upper resistance band of a falling wedge which hints a bullish trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing bullish divergence where prices created lower lows and RSI reading posted higher lows, adding validation to the potential move higher.
If price surpasses R1 at 134.45, we set our upside target at 137.75...
After a bearish crossover of the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA in mid-November, USDJPY continues to plunge to head towards the long term 200 EMA. On the daily chart, we identify two bearish chart patterns that would signal further decline in the pair.
Firstly, USDJPY broke down from a bear pennant pattern on 24 November. This would set a downside technical target...
The AUDUSD on daily chart found support above the 20 EMA and bounced off strongly. Prices are consolidating in a triangle formation after a steep rise throughout first half of November in what seems like a bull pennant in making. The RSI also shows some bullish bias having found support above 50.
A break above the pennant would be a strong sign for further...
