Short and long term forecast for Biontech
Updated
The stocks of Biontech could be one of the best in the near few month.
To eleborate this statement I have to do a quick review of the last weeks:
Now we are again at Point 2), but what changed since then?
All that are bullish news which are not calculated in the current stock price.
Risk reward ratio for the upcoming weeks:
First of all let's see the potential target for a short term drop.
A price around 73-75€ would hit a strong horizontal support, which is the golden zone retracment of the last upwards move and also the zone of the maximal traded volume (orange line). That potential -15% move would be a strong target for traders to go long with an easy stop/loss target below the parallel channel.
The target for a short term upwards movement would be around 115€.
That yellow arrow is an 1:1 extention of the current upwards movement. Going upwards would cause a fast move due to the last swifty drop form 109€. The target of 115€ would also hit the border of the parallel channel. We should see some resistance on that point again.
The long term target is tricky to calculate.
The most obvious method is to draw an Fib extention from the last big moves. We should see a target at 128€ and 168€. At first glance, that targets look slightly to high, BUT if we had an ATH of 109€ with calculated 1.3 billion units of the vaccine and if we extent that calculation with 2 billion units, we get a price of 166,77€ (109€ * 1.53) ;-)
Risk reward ratio:
With that trade we have a 1 to 5.5 risk to reward ratio, which every trader should be keen to it and a potential to nearly double our money.
To eleborate this statement I have to do a quick review of the last weeks:
- 1) We are moving in a clear parallel channel and hit the upper border line. It was also an 1:1 extention of previous higher highs and lower lows. On a technical standpoint it was normal to see a drop. Furthermore, it was before X-Mas, were people tend to withdraw money for presents and taxes.
- 2) Point 2 should have been a good rebuy spot. It hit the median line of the parallel channel and we retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci point. Exactly on that date, the news about the new UK covid mutation occured, which caused a FUD for the inexperienced traders. Therefore we droped lower than normal.
- 3) On that point we had strong horizontal support and hit the golden zone of the Fibonacci retracment. A perfekt buy!
Now we are again at Point 2), but what changed since then?
- Biontech has proven that it's effective against the UK and all other mutations.
- Before that point, there were only estimations that Biontech would produce 1 to 1.3 billion units of the vaccine. Now we have a statement of the CEO that Biontech will produce 2 billion units! All old calculations have to be readjusted.
- Biontech announced the mRNA-technologie for multiple sclerosis
- The biggest shareholder of Biontech announced, that Biontech will become an own producing big farma company
All that are bullish news which are not calculated in the current stock price.
Risk reward ratio for the upcoming weeks:
First of all let's see the potential target for a short term drop.
A price around 73-75€ would hit a strong horizontal support, which is the golden zone retracment of the last upwards move and also the zone of the maximal traded volume (orange line). That potential -15% move would be a strong target for traders to go long with an easy stop/loss target below the parallel channel.
The target for a short term upwards movement would be around 115€.
That yellow arrow is an 1:1 extention of the current upwards movement. Going upwards would cause a fast move due to the last swifty drop form 109€. The target of 115€ would also hit the border of the parallel channel. We should see some resistance on that point again.
The long term target is tricky to calculate.
The most obvious method is to draw an Fib extention from the last big moves. We should see a target at 128€ and 168€. At first glance, that targets look slightly to high, BUT if we had an ATH of 109€ with calculated 1.3 billion units of the vaccine and if we extent that calculation with 2 billion units, we get a price of 166,77€ (109€ * 1.53) ;-)
Risk reward ratio:
With that trade we have a 1 to 5.5 risk to reward ratio, which every trader should be keen to it and a potential to nearly double our money.
Note
We had a small breakout to a range nearby 100€ as predicted.At that point we saw some sell offs. Not only because it's an obvious resistance level, furthermore a lot of people had there their prior order buy prices and are happy to go break even out.
After that we saw a 2nd minor sell off due to the pfizer balance sheet release. (dumb reaction)
The price held with a higher low and is hovering above the orange horizontal line which is the price level with the most traded volume.
In addition we created a new bullish ascending yellow channel.
We are on a clear bullish path although we could see another small dip towards 91€. It's the 0.618 fib retracement and would trigger some liquidity for bigger orders.
The next steps are hard to predict, but we are clearly on the way towards the last all time highs. At those ranges we don't have much resistance any more and i wouldn't be suprised to see a fast spike at my first target around 115€.
TL,DR: still bullish!
Note
Since we have more data, here's a small update:On the upper side we have a strong selling wall at 100€ which is reasonable as a psychological point.
Point 1) formed the first swing low. Daytraiders and weak hands are putting slightly below that level their stop/loss.
Point 2) was cracked to trigger all those stop/losses and formed a liqidity zone for bigger buys.
Point 3) repeated that scenario of point 1 and 2. We got a slightly lower low with a strong rebuy.
Point 4) had again a strong rebuy and created a good support zone with finally no lower low.
The bounces between 100€ and 96,5€ are telling a story of bigger accumulation.
Bigger players are using the liquidity zones to buy/rebuy the stock.
Therefore we should be bullish even on the short term and see a break of the 100€ level soon.
Note
We had last week a strange situation where the whole world market tanked due to a upcoming speech of Fed Chair Powell.
After that we had a small but good recovery.
If we hold this level tomorrow, the USD Chart shows a nice Head and Shoulders reversal, while the EUR Chart holds still all major support zones.
A Price above 93 will lead swiftly to a price nearby 97€.
Although, a slowly sidewards movement with low volume until the 30th of March is also possible. (Q4 results)
PS: still bullish
Note
I will post updates on this site: 
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