=**Week of:** April 7–11, 2025
**Bias:** Bullish Rotation Setup
**Trade Duration:** Multi-week to multi-month swing
**Status:** Compression Zone Reclaim | Macro Spring Forming
**Reflexivity Phase:** Phase 2 – Structural Reversal Attempt
---
## 🧠 Thesis
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!) are emerging from a multi-year downtrend channel with signs of base compression and reclaim. This may represent the early stages of a **macro spring** setup — the kind that forms silently while sentiment is bottomed out.
We are now in a zone where smart money often rotates before the crowd reacts.
---
## 🔍 Structure Overview
- Decade-long downtrend channel — structure well defined
- Price has reclaimed key breakdown levels
- Early higher lows forming inside compression zone
- Base forming after major sentiment washout
- No parabolic rallies = controlled accumulation
---
## 📊 COT + Sentiment Snapshot
- **Commercials:** Gradually increasing net long CAD positions
- **Leveraged Funds:** Still net short — potential fuel for reversal
- **Narrative:** CAD broadly dismissed due to oil & USD dominance
- **Retail:** No attention = stealth phase
---
## 🔄 Reflexivity Phase Model
| Phase | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| **Phase 1:** CAD declines for years, sentiment deeply bearish
| **Phase 2:** Structure stabilizes, price reclaims compression zone (now)
| **Phase 3:** Sentiment catches up, breakout attempt begins
| **Phase 4:** Violent revaluation as positioning flips
✅ **Current Phase:** Phase 2 – Smart money accumulating, crowd unaware
---
## 🎯 Strategy Guidance
- Favor long bias while above reclaimed levels
- Ideal entry zone: Retest of reclaimed base
- Invalidation: Re-entry below channel support
- Target: Multi-month upside if breakout holds
---
> “The broader the base, the bigger the move. CAD may be waking up from a multi year sleep.”
**Bias:** Bullish Rotation Setup
**Trade Duration:** Multi-week to multi-month swing
**Status:** Compression Zone Reclaim | Macro Spring Forming
**Reflexivity Phase:** Phase 2 – Structural Reversal Attempt
---
## 🧠 Thesis
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!) are emerging from a multi-year downtrend channel with signs of base compression and reclaim. This may represent the early stages of a **macro spring** setup — the kind that forms silently while sentiment is bottomed out.
We are now in a zone where smart money often rotates before the crowd reacts.
---
## 🔍 Structure Overview
- Decade-long downtrend channel — structure well defined
- Price has reclaimed key breakdown levels
- Early higher lows forming inside compression zone
- Base forming after major sentiment washout
- No parabolic rallies = controlled accumulation
---
## 📊 COT + Sentiment Snapshot
- **Commercials:** Gradually increasing net long CAD positions
- **Leveraged Funds:** Still net short — potential fuel for reversal
- **Narrative:** CAD broadly dismissed due to oil & USD dominance
- **Retail:** No attention = stealth phase
---
## 🔄 Reflexivity Phase Model
| Phase | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| **Phase 1:** CAD declines for years, sentiment deeply bearish
| **Phase 2:** Structure stabilizes, price reclaims compression zone (now)
| **Phase 3:** Sentiment catches up, breakout attempt begins
| **Phase 4:** Violent revaluation as positioning flips
✅ **Current Phase:** Phase 2 – Smart money accumulating, crowd unaware
---
## 🎯 Strategy Guidance
- Favor long bias while above reclaimed levels
- Ideal entry zone: Retest of reclaimed base
- Invalidation: Re-entry below channel support
- Target: Multi-month upside if breakout holds
---
> “The broader the base, the bigger the move. CAD may be waking up from a multi year sleep.”
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.