Risky hold over ER. Expect a post earnings drop and then up
BABA/9898 is a going to have a choppy ride over the next 24 hours.
We have just seen a multi rally pre-earnings report.
The coronavirus facts aren't clear with a jump in reports of verified cases, however, there may be a change in methodology to reporting.
Prior reports most likely we under-reported.
Factory situation, where are we?
No one going back to work.
Factories waiting for the green light from the government to open.
A huge burden to comply with government requirements so factories may not open on time for fear of non-compliance.
Impact 2-3 weeks knock-on from an official green light for manufacturers to open.
This effectively knocks out over a 1/3 of the quarter and increases supply chain costs for all involved.
Short then long is my play......
Alibaba is killing it this year, this is just a short term blip.
#This is not to be seen advice.
This is a potential playbook that I may follow over the next 24 hours.
For now, I am risk-off due to ER coming out later today and lack of data on the virus.
We have just seen a multi rally pre-earnings report.
The coronavirus facts aren't clear with a jump in reports of verified cases, however, there may be a change in methodology to reporting.
Prior reports most likely we under-reported.
Factory situation, where are we?
No one going back to work.
Factories waiting for the green light from the government to open.
A huge burden to comply with government requirements so factories may not open on time for fear of non-compliance.
Impact 2-3 weeks knock-on from an official green light for manufacturers to open.
This effectively knocks out over a 1/3 of the quarter and increases supply chain costs for all involved.
Short then long is my play......
Alibaba is killing it this year, this is just a short term blip.
#This is not to be seen advice.
This is a potential playbook that I may follow over the next 24 hours.
For now, I am risk-off due to ER coming out later today and lack of data on the virus.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.