Slide 1 - Investment Thesis Global leader in alternative accommodations with strong growth prospects Benefits from network effects and high barriers to entry Rapidly recovering from pandemic, financials exceeding pre-Covid levels Significant runway for continued expansion in massive addressable market
Slide 2 - Financial Performance
- Revenue grew 70% in 2021 to 66B, expected to grow 35% in 2022 to over 88B - Net income of 1.9B in 2021 vs loss of 4.6B in 2020 - Strong profit margins - Gross: 63%, EBITDA: 29%, Net: 26% in 2021 - Robust free cash flow of 2.8B in 2021, cash balance of 9.9B
Slide 3 - Growth Outlook
- Total addressable market in lodging, experiences and other areas is over $3 trillion - Currently under 1% penetration of global lodging market - New offerings significantly expand TAM: - Airbnb Luxe (luxury rentals) - Airbnb Categories (specific rental types) - Airbnb Studios (urban apartments) - Positive booking trends - nights and experiences booked up 20%+
Slide 4 - Efficiency Asset turnover improved from 2020 to 2021 indicating increased efficiency Return on Equity of 67% in 2021 demonstrates highly efficient use of capital
Slide 6 - Solvency Has a healthy balance sheet with 9.9B in cash and 2.9B in long-term debt Manageable debt levels at ~3x EBITDA Can generate sufficient cash flow to service debt obligations
Slide 7 - Competitive Position
- Powerful network effects - hosts attract guests and vice versa - Trust built through reputation system and reviews - Operates a two-sided marketplace - difficult to disrupt - Brand awareness, inventory density strengthen competitive advantages
Slide 8 - Valuation
- Average of valuation models suggests modest undervaluation: - Discounted cash flow model: $120 per share - Comps, multiples analysis: $110 - $135 per share - Consensus Wall Street price target of $170 implies ~15% upside - If executes on growth, substantial upside in stock over next 5 years
Slide 9 - Recommendation Attractive risk/reward profile given leadership, TAM, competitive advantages Q4 2022 results beat expectations across key metrics Well-positioned to capitalize on rebound in travel demand Rating: Buy, Price Target = $180
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