ADA and the red
Updated
Good day everyone!
The week did not happened as it should. Various fundamentals factors have played against the alt trend and some technicals too.
On the fundamentals side we had a clear breakdown following the dump on stocks yesterday and the pumps made during the previous days at BTC. These moves are not conventional for crypto and have created a disturbance on the natural trend of crypto. We can see that on the Bitcoin dominance chart where we have went sideways since June 4.
The bear cross on the daily at the dominance should have created enough strengh to push the dominance down, breakink the small resistance currently at 65.87%. The actual daily rejection from the ema 12 is a bullish sign for the alts, but it looks like we are waiting the weekly close to make a move and we will see why.
The ADA/BTC as we can see on the daily has been rejected perfectly by the longterm resistance (in red) pushing the trend to look for support. I was not expecting, and I believe a lot of us either to see the support breaking the ema 12 and looking for the big support of our previous heavy resistance at the ma 200 of the 3D (currently at 800 sats). I was personally looking for a test of the ema 12 and a bounce from there but I was wrong and I should have stated a test of our previous resistance to confirm it as our new support. The confirmation of this new support will be set at the close of the weekly, giving the signal for a bullish continuation of our trend. A bearish signal or a delay would be produced if we lose that support.
On the 15 min we can see clearly a formation of a probable inverse H&S that could give enough strengh to break the resistance (red line). The formation should be completed during the afternoon of Saturday 13.
Sunday we should receive more information about what is happening and where we will go during next week. As we are in a flip area for the Btc Dominance, it's probable that we will see some foolish attempts to create a reversal.
Remember, this is only an analysis.
The week did not happened as it should. Various fundamentals factors have played against the alt trend and some technicals too.
On the fundamentals side we had a clear breakdown following the dump on stocks yesterday and the pumps made during the previous days at BTC. These moves are not conventional for crypto and have created a disturbance on the natural trend of crypto. We can see that on the Bitcoin dominance chart where we have went sideways since June 4.
The bear cross on the daily at the dominance should have created enough strengh to push the dominance down, breakink the small resistance currently at 65.87%. The actual daily rejection from the ema 12 is a bullish sign for the alts, but it looks like we are waiting the weekly close to make a move and we will see why.
The ADA/BTC as we can see on the daily has been rejected perfectly by the longterm resistance (in red) pushing the trend to look for support. I was not expecting, and I believe a lot of us either to see the support breaking the ema 12 and looking for the big support of our previous heavy resistance at the ma 200 of the 3D (currently at 800 sats). I was personally looking for a test of the ema 12 and a bounce from there but I was wrong and I should have stated a test of our previous resistance to confirm it as our new support. The confirmation of this new support will be set at the close of the weekly, giving the signal for a bullish continuation of our trend. A bearish signal or a delay would be produced if we lose that support.
On the 15 min we can see clearly a formation of a probable inverse H&S that could give enough strengh to break the resistance (red line). The formation should be completed during the afternoon of Saturday 13.
Sunday we should receive more information about what is happening and where we will go during next week. As we are in a flip area for the Btc Dominance, it's probable that we will see some foolish attempts to create a reversal.
Remember, this is only an analysis.
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The potential inverse h&S failed in a weird pattern similar to a previous one. We can see here at the 4 hrs some similarities:
Making it worse, the dominance broke 3 resistances at once and is heading to create a lower high.
We need to wait to see where the dominance will stop.
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The panorama looks good for the alts. We need to confirm that btc D has lost its supports. We will probably test the resistance at ADA/BTC today, currently at 866 sats.
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We have crossed the resistance. The cautious way would be to wait the daily close to confirm the second candle over the resistance (red line). But I don't discard an attept to test the resistance at 907.The dominance closed under the support so we should see the alts outperforming bitcoin once we confirm it at the close of the week.
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We have a confirmation at the daily of the cross of the big resistance. This will give enough certainty to test the next one at 907. The objectif is to have two daily candle over 907 sats and to close the weekly candle over it. The dominance still looks favorable for the alts, but remember we need a weekly close on that one too.
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We have a triangle to look at too. Everything looks fine for the weekly close.
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Everything seems to be ready. I was expecting a better week-end but ADA will move with the other names this week. We are still in the triangle, the top is at 880 sats.
On the weekly we didn't managed to close over the red resistance an we should see it this week.
The dominance is down again. As we expected they were waiting the weekly close. Now we should heald for the support at the monthly at 64.55%.
Monthly:
Bitcoin has a big futures closes Friday, so we should expect a move up to 10500 / 11200.
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Futures closed in red and Bitcoin didn't crossed 9900. We need to wait the close of the monthly at the dominance but it looks like we will need to wait one more month to see it losing the support of the ema 12. Ar ADA/btc we have finally reached a closes over the resistance at 907 sats. We still want another green candle over it.
On this messy 4 hrs charts we can see how the trend acted with the triangle in blue and the big resistance in red. Now the resistance at 907 is acting as a support on the 4 hrs waiting for bigger timeframes to lock the new support.
The daily looks great. A close over 914 would create the green candle we are looking. The best scenario would be to have a red candle closing between 908 /913 sats. This would trigger a major move tomorrow.
On the weekly we can see how clear and clean is the move. Some bulls will wait the weekly close to get in, confirming 2 green candles over the resistance.
And the monthly closing later today will confirm the second green candle closing over the longterm resistance. A very bullish signal.
On the usdt front we are still looking to break the actual triangle on the daily.
0.0862$ is the resistance, a move of Bitcoin over 9300 would help the break and contain the btc value of ADA on the level we want to see.
The usdt is still delayed, but the small timeframes are starting to merge with the btc value.
The weekly is still in a nice bull flag with an innminent break out this week or next week (max).
Monthly will confirm the cross of the trend over the ema 26. This would lead to test direcly the resistance of 0.08910 who acted several times in the past, and probably open the way to 0.1069.
It will hard to define the consolidation on the usdt pairing because of its big retrace from the previous ATH. We could think that August would act as a month of consolidation but the dominance seems to say something different.
We will see.
Note
This is the montly. I analyzed the weekly. On the monthly the candle will close over the resistance in red where the next resistance is the ema 26 around 1350 sats. This would be a longterm target from here (1 month maybe).
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