ADA (Cardano) Bottom likely reached.

Updated
See annotations.
Note
Top Left Text Box:

Purple ellipses: Whenever we see large moves in such a short amount of time like this, it does not allow time for supports to be established.


(IIRC this was also the case with Verge when it moved from ~$0.11 to $0.19.)


If we take a look at the orange support we can see the breaking point circled in red. If we take a look to the left we see this move almost mirrored in the large ellipse.


So why is this important to note?


Well from this we can get a rough idea as to how the retracement is likely to unfold and where we are most likely to find the bottom.


I've placed the fib retrace here because if we look at the cyan ellipse we can see that it's established a relatively strong support as it has bounced ~5 times on the way up and very recently ~2 times on the way down.


There is a high probability this is the true bottom.

However, a retrace to 1500 sats is not impossible.
Note
Bottom Right Text Box:

The previous double bottoms did not hold.

However, if a double bottom forms on the current support it is much more likely to hold because this support also held another double+ bottom on the way up.

This support is significantly more established than the previous two.

I haven't used any indicators but it wouldn't be a far-fetched assumption to say these would provide some sort of confluence.
Note
Centre Text Box:

This is MY plan (NOT financial advice)


Scenario 1.


Buy 33% of my intended bag at 2500 sats.

If it drops to 1500 sats I'll purchase another 33% of intended bag.

If it drops to 500 sats I'll buy my last 33% of intended bag.


Scenario 2.

Buy 66% of my intended bag at 2500 sats.

If it moves up and finds support at 4000/5000 I can buy 33% of intended bag.

These are just my rough numbers and I might ladder in, in different ways depending on the market and other factors.
Chart PatternsTrend Analysis

Also on:

Disclaimer