Possible path of ADA's next wave

Updated

With the correction behind us, Cardano is on the move back up. We may have finished subwave 2, retracing back only to the 382 level. EW rules tell us that subwave 4 will retrace greater than 382, so we can assume it could fall between the 5 and 618 level of the next wave. We may see this run lead us to 1415 sats.

This post will be updated as we see new developments.

And of course, this should not be taken as financial advice as the poster is the furthest thing from an FA. Only use this for comparison of your own analysis. Cheers.

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If the path holds true, this may be a good potential target box to stack your trades. A guideline for EW/Fib is that when wave 3 runs approximately the same distance as wave 1 (a 1-to-1 measured move,) then we can likely expect one of two things:

1. the 5th wave to run up to the 1.618 line of the same measured fib extension (i.e. wave 1-2 extension.)
2. the 5th wave to run to the 1.00 level of the wave 3-4 fib extension.

Therefore, the target box is between both levels stated above.

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So far so good. Made slight adjustments to the levels to reflect the tip of the newly formed wave (subwave 2) which overshot original estimate by a small amount.

Final target adjusted from 1415 to 1419.

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My bad. Forgot to raise the bottom of the target box.

It is now 1371 sats - 1419 sats.
no longer 1335 sats

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So, previous posts of mine I feel have been a little too optimistic at times. I feel necessary to keep things more conservative in this study. There's nothing wrong with betting bigger, so I urge you to use this (living) study as a good baseline. Hopefully in the end, it will be correct on the more conservative side. Only time will tell.

The bottom of Wave 2 has traveled further than the 0.382 and has bounced off the 0.5 retracement line of Wave 1. RSI (not shown) has also bounced off of strong support, giving confluence to new direction of the price action.

Adjustments made...

Because we are now dealing with a bounce off of the 0.5 level, projections for Wave 4 may be less certain. However, we can say with certainty (thanks to EW rules,) that it will not pass below the 0.5 level, which lines up with the top of Wave 1.

The bounce will most likely occur between the 0.618 and 0.5 levels of Wave 3's retracement. That's between 946 and 991, respectively.

The new target for the top of Wave 5 is between 1335 and 1377.

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Above graph is incorrect. Use this instead:

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I'm posting to different scenarios, based on wave 3.
A guideline in the EW Theory is that if wave 3 gives a 1:1 measured move based off of wave 1 (the same distance traveled), then wave 5 can reach 1.618 of the same fibonacci extension.
If wave 3 goes beyond and reaches 1.618, then wave 5 can possibly reach 2.618.

If the second scenario plays out and wave 5 goes up to 2.618, a reasonable target may be between 1700 and 1785.

Small adjustment to new wave 2 low sets the first scenario target box to:
1346-1382

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Nope! No double bottom, just another new low for Wave 2. I will stop spamming for the time being and update once we are clear we are on Wave 3's path.

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Added MACD to the chart and am seeing some bullish divergence on the histogram, which suggests we may be ready to rise. No clear confirmation yet, though.

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A small downward triangle is forming on the 30m chart right at the 711 sat level, which is proving to be very strong support. Though I rarely see successful breakouts in triangles this small, we may see a breakout within the next hour or so.

MACD is still showing bullish divergence and the moving average line is beginning to slope upwards. If we crossover the signal line, it may line up with the breakthrough of the triangle on the chart, giving us confluence for an uptrend.

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Wrong about the descending triangle (I got it mixed up with the descending wedge.)

This is a continuation pattern and will likely break the bottom support. I assume if it does, we will likely dip closer to the .786 line (642 sat).

Evidently, I need more coffee or more sleep...

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Luckily, the price action bounced off just south of the .618 line and broke above the descending triangle. It looks like we may finally be moving up Wave 3.

New adjustments:

Wave 3 may either:
1. The 1:1 level, just shy of 1100 sats, or
2. Continue up as far as the 1.618, which will be 1330 sats.

If scenario 1 plays out, Wave 4 will likely come down to the .328 level (947 sats) and then move up to the 1.618 level to finish Wave 5 (1335.) My target box would then be between 1244 and 1335. (Remember, the point of all of this is to be as conservative as possible!)

If scenario 2 happens, Wave 4 could retrace to 1014 sats and then go up to the 2.618 level (of the original Wave 1 fib extension,) at 1721 sats. My target box here would be between 1630 and 1721.

Another reminder, none of this is set in stone and will be continuing to evolve as the path unfolds. That said, only use my data for your own research and comparison, definitely not investment advice!

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And... back down to the .618 line. Thanks, CBOE!

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We've reached the .786 level for wave 2. Will we go further? Will we reverse? Will we completely destroy all laws of physics and wave theory and jump straight to 0.7 btc? Only time will tell.

So, how about the chart, huh? Confusing as all get-out to me, and I'm the one who made it! I am one of many who believe the fib tools are possibly the most powerful tools in our box. At the same time, they really have a way of making a chart look illegible. So, I've tried my best to cut out as many unnecessary levels as I can. I even labeled them for you. Aren't I the best?

So let's go through it:

We have found strong support at the .786 level (648 sats,) and the price looks to be going up. I know, you've already heard this from me before. But let's just keep it in the present and worry about further retracement later.

Wave 3's two scenarios:

1. (orange path) It makes a 1:1 measured move based off of wave 1's fib extension. Wave 4 then retraces to the .382 line. Finally wave 5 will go up to 1.618 of wave 1's extension.
Adjusted prices for these are currently:
a. Wave 3: 1030 sats
b. Wave 4: 949 sats
c. Wave 5: 1260 sats
d. Sell target box: 1178 - 1260 sats

2. (yellow dotted path) Wave 3 goes all the way up to the 1.618 level (of wave 1's fib ext.) Wave 4 retraces back to the 1.00 level but CAN retrace as far back as the .786 level of wave 1's fib ext. From there, Wave 5 can POSSIBLY go all the way up to 2.618. I say 'can' and 'possibly' because more times than not in this type of scenario, the price gets pretty close to these levels. Also, for those who like to live life on the edge, I've added a rebuy target box for this scenario in between the 1 and .786 levels.
Adjusted prices for these are currently:
a. Wave 3: 1260 sats
b. Wave 4: 950 sats
c. Wave 5: 1653 sats
d. Sell target box 1: 1178 - 1260 sats
e. Rebuy target box: 950 - 1030 sats
f. Sell target box 2: 1562 - 1650 sats

Alright, that's enough for me today. Thanks to everyone who's been following this. Feel free to ask questions, or tell me how wrong I am. Good night!

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CORRECTION: I mentioned in Scenario 1 that wave 4 retraces to the .382 line. I meant to say the .786 line.

I also seem to be having difficulty with adding updates in the comment section. Sorry about that :-/

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Is that not almost the perfect curve you've ever seen? Looks like it might be a hot steaming cup (and handle) of goodness soon.

Nothing much to report on now, just having a little fun. We are still on track. Will update when I see a change.

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So this is a mighty strange cup and handle. Maybe it's more of a measuring cup? I am noticing on the order books that the whales on Bittrex are putting up some seriously mighty buy walls at the 672, 662, and 651 sat levels. Unless this is a jook move and they pull them down to further manipulate the price downwards, the bears will have a really tough time moving much past where we are.

Also, here's a view of ADA from 10,000 feet.

If we are to stay in this pattern, we may not see an ATH until next summer. Don't let that dissuade you though! Patterns are meant to be broken and can happen at any point. I just wanted to post this for reference.

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I am not yet ready to call the start of Wave 3 yet. But I'm close.

The RSI has passed a long established support/resistance line at 48. It will be a good sign if it bounces off this line.

The candlesticks have reached the 55 EMA, but yet to close above it. The biggest sign of the return of the bulls will be when the 55 EMA crosses over the other EMAs (8 and 21). Once we confirm these signs, we can be confident we are on our way up.

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Calm before the storm. Things could get very interesting very soon. Would be happier to see the 55 EMA under the price bars, but oh well.

Waiting to see a spike in volume.

Here's full picture of this triangle:

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We have liftoff.

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On track! Just not as quickly as we were thinking XD

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We rode a nice, little rocket this morning and have made our 1:1 move, where it looks like we are consolidating right around the 1025 sat line. There is still a chance we can continue moving up to the 1.618 level and continue on with Scenario 2 (see updates above.) Let's continue cheering for ADA and maybe it will keep pushing!

If not, I would be confident to say that we will begin our wave 4 retracement to 950 and then onward to 1260.

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Well, looks like we've gone with Scenario 2! Price action met and even exceeded the target box for wave 3 that I had detailed. Now it looks like there is a strong push back down, so we may be looking at Wave 4 and our rebuy target box.

Congrats to all who decided to short right here. Make sure to set up your next trades, it could come quick!

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As soon as we can confirm the price is definitely going down, I will readjust as necessary.

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MACD is showing bearish divergence on multiple time frames and RSI has dipped below the bullish zone (<65), which adds to confirmation we are traveling on Wave 4 now. So I've done a bit of adjusting to our target boxes.

Since Wave 2 retraced 78.6% of Wave 1, we can assume that Wave 4 will NOT retrace as much. In a perfect world, it would retrace the difference of 1 and .786, which would be 21.4%. But we don't live in a perfect world, so I am extending the target box from .214 down to .5 of Wave 3's retracement. It COULD retrace down to the .618 line but I am confident this retracement will be shorter.

Rebuy Target Box: 1000 sats to 1205 sats

My new Wave 5 target box is tied to the lower level of Wave 4's target box and it's upper level. If we assume that Wave 5 makes a 1:1 move compared to Wave 3, then we can expect the price to fall between the 1.00 levels of each of these retracements

Sell Target Box: 1716 - 1898 sats

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I added the .214 level to the fib retracement to better show the target box. Also made slight adjustment to the Wave 5 target box. The range is now 1716 - 1888 sats

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The bulls are showing a lot of strength right now. While I don't normally like to add in order books to TA, I think it's important to state that the price has broken through several large sell walls. It is now at a very large one at 1400 sat.

I am currently unsure whether this small dip we experienced was wave 4 or if we are still on wave 3. I will be watching the charts closely tonight and if it gets too high, I may remove my sell positions that I noted above.

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We have returned (deeply) into the rebuy zone, so Wave 4 is still in play. Watch for a bounce of the RSI near 45 points (strong support) to signal a possible reversal.

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Wave 5 is upon us. One pattern I've noticed with ADA is that it likes to take (relatively) long moments of sideways movement before shooting up again. Can't say for sure if this will be the case, but will be interesting to see if it happens again.

Wave 5 Target Box (1720-1888) is still in play. Keep an eye on the RSI to break into the Bullish Zone (>65) and the MACD to show rapid growth.

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Nearing a breakout here on the 2-hour chart.

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Home stretch, guys! Remember to take profit between 1720 and 1888!

Trade closed: target reached

Congratulations. We made it. As of this post, ADA peaked at 1871. It didn't quite reach my 1888 sat line (and I didn't get my top order filled,) but I think we can be happy with this. There's still a chance we will go higher, but it looks like the bears are moving in and sell walls are adding up, pushing the price down now.

I hope this lengthy TA has helped you in your trades. I will be looking at another coin soon to do the same kind of analysis. (Possibly XRP if I'm able to figure its chart out.)

Thanks gang!

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On a closing note: Price did go back up and breached the target box by about 100 sats. (1993 sats)

For those looking for a good rebuy target: 1100 - 1280 sats (lines up with the .5 and .618 of the entire wave's retracement.)

Trade well, my friends. Until next time...

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I feel bad that I called the top and it just completely skyrocketed. I love that it did, but like I said in the beginning, my intention was to make as conservative estimate as I could. Right as I saw it hit 1990, I bought back in. Anyone who followed my TA, I hope you did too.

I truly believe Cardano is the next big thing and we will see it in the top 3 in no time. My advice from here on out is hodl. Buy the dips of course, but it is just too risky to try and short, at least for the time being.

Shout out to @ ajdourgarian for nailing this. I believe his TA is where we will be going. (His analysis linked below.)

spacemonkeey

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