ADAUSD Accumulation and Divergence
Updated
Important things to note:
BTC has swept the lows, yet there is no sign of a liquidation candle.
This leads me to believe there is no fuel and the open interest you see are FOMO shorts.
Since they are collaterized with stablecoins, this makes sense.
So like I said before, I believe we are at a bottom at 40k for BTC.
I also expect the bears to be punished next for their FOMOs.
There will likely be pain here and there, but I still believe we are going to range in 40-53k for awhile longer.
ADA has finally capitulated and broken support to test lower support.
ADA has a rather clear accumulation zone with bullish divergence.
I believe ADA will see a spring soon.
Important dates to note:
I will be adding the ADA upcoming events soon.
Hey everyone! If you are reading this and have not been shaken out, first let me say congratulations! Not many people make it this far. Overall, I still believe we are at the bottom of our range of 40-53k. We have swept the lows for BTC and yet there was no liquidation candle sending us to 32k. Even more, open interest has been climbing which leads me to believe these are FOMO shorts. Another reason is the contracts have been collateralized with stablecoins vs btc which is something you do when you are shorting. There is not much to see when it comes to on-chain data, no alarms, no top indications, nothing. So, I believe this whole China ban actually set us back a few months. I do not think crypto has recovered just yet. Now, for ADA we finally saw the capitulation that the rest of the alts say (especially ETH), by breaking its support and heading down. If you look at the structure of the blue box you will recognize this as an accumulation zone. All we need is a spring which I believe will come in the form of the bullish divergence we see on the chart. This will send the price up to test the resistance, hit a support and if all goes well, break past resistance. It is important to take every test one step at a time. Do not get ahead of yourself. Especially while BTC is trading in the "no mans land" zone. I will be updating my other charts with entries as well! Enjoy! Also, whoever sold their ADA to me this morning, thank you, I will see you again at the top! LOL. Thanks again everyone!
So, tell me what you think!
This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
BTC has swept the lows, yet there is no sign of a liquidation candle.
This leads me to believe there is no fuel and the open interest you see are FOMO shorts.
Since they are collaterized with stablecoins, this makes sense.
So like I said before, I believe we are at a bottom at 40k for BTC.
I also expect the bears to be punished next for their FOMOs.
There will likely be pain here and there, but I still believe we are going to range in 40-53k for awhile longer.
ADA has finally capitulated and broken support to test lower support.
ADA has a rather clear accumulation zone with bullish divergence.
I believe ADA will see a spring soon.
Important dates to note:
I will be adding the ADA upcoming events soon.
Hey everyone! If you are reading this and have not been shaken out, first let me say congratulations! Not many people make it this far. Overall, I still believe we are at the bottom of our range of 40-53k. We have swept the lows for BTC and yet there was no liquidation candle sending us to 32k. Even more, open interest has been climbing which leads me to believe these are FOMO shorts. Another reason is the contracts have been collateralized with stablecoins vs btc which is something you do when you are shorting. There is not much to see when it comes to on-chain data, no alarms, no top indications, nothing. So, I believe this whole China ban actually set us back a few months. I do not think crypto has recovered just yet. Now, for ADA we finally saw the capitulation that the rest of the alts say (especially ETH), by breaking its support and heading down. If you look at the structure of the blue box you will recognize this as an accumulation zone. All we need is a spring which I believe will come in the form of the bullish divergence we see on the chart. This will send the price up to test the resistance, hit a support and if all goes well, break past resistance. It is important to take every test one step at a time. Do not get ahead of yourself. Especially while BTC is trading in the "no mans land" zone. I will be updating my other charts with entries as well! Enjoy! Also, whoever sold their ADA to me this morning, thank you, I will see you again at the top! LOL. Thanks again everyone!
So, tell me what you think!
This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
Note
Also, JPow is speaking tomorrow, so get ready for pain as always. Bonds couldn't be doing any worse right now. RIP pensions. The fact that the market prices everything in almost as fast as they occur is the only thing that makes me feel better about the macro environment in general. I can't imagine he can say anything worse than what he has already said (shutting off the printer, rate hikes, and QT.)Note
Look at that, JPow meeting went well.Note
Open Interest going down while BTC goes up. Looks like we have a buildup of shorts :)Note
I can see BTC trading in range for the short term before making its push to 46xxx.Note
ADA has to range a bit (just like BTC) in order to break through the resistance. From there, it should hit yellow level and retest. This assumes BTC does not try and shakeout any longs.Note
More negative funding rates........ gooooood goooooooooood. :)Note
BTC price consolidating in very tight range. I expect a move soon.Note
Wow I was bullish on ADA and everything but I did not expect a near 30 cent rebound without some consolidation. It blew right past the resistance. However, now it is looking a big high. I guess it can stretch out on the 4 hr if it REALLY wanted to. Either way, very very good sign for the market in general. Also I didn't speak about the CPI announcement today, but even with inflation up to 7%, the markets have already priced in the risk. This is what I figured would happen. Nothing beats an efficient market.
Note
I should also mention that ADA cut through the highest resistance zone available like butter. Very interesting, indeed.Note
BTC just got pushed back into range after testing key levels. I expect it to be here for awhile. Some of the lower orders have been closed, yet there is some buildup around 40k and 45K. I am guessing we will hit both of these zones. The thing I would really like to see close are the 30k orders, but since we are in "no mans land" those orders will remain until we hit 46 at least, but likely 53.Note
Welp, while BTC was dumping, CLV was pumping 25%. I hate to say it, but I told you so. A lot of these assets are starting to finish their accumulation phases. CRV, ICP, CLV, MOVR etc. BTC might range for awhile, but just be aware when we get back on the rails, these assets will move.Note
* I believe these assets will move. LOLNote
So I have good news and bad news everyone. The good news is, a lot of the orders I saw at 30k have closed. The bad news is there is about 1200 BTC worth of liquidity at the 40k-39500 level. This does not mean the price will go there. But there is a lot of liquidity at that range so be aware. Overall, this is good. It means the orders are moving up instead of down.Note
The volume I am seeing at recent levels is great. BTC either has its higher low in, or if it fails it will drop to the demand range (the range with the high level of orders) and likely bounce from there. All is well to be honest. I do not see anything worrying. On chain is stagnant. There aren't any alarms going off there which means we are still between meaningful levels. I am hearing a lot of people talk about the derivatives market recently. This makes sense, because right now, that is running the show. Since I am frequently trading in those markets, I agree with the sentiment. Analysts are scrambling to find meaningful data and derivatives are the only place you are going to get it at the moment. (In my opinion the derivatives are what you should always be looking at which is why I am always bringing up CME).Note
I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. I was a bit busy visiting friends and eating food so I haven't been on as much, but it looks like my prediction for ADA worked out (surprise surprise). It is also worth mentioning that CRV (an asset I have charted) is #1 in TMC/TLV. Which means it is the most undervalued asset in crypto given its total value locked. I am going to enjoy the rest of this bull run. I really am!
I have been buying at the lower levels and though I am about 90% sure the floor around 40k is set due to what I am seeing on chain, in derivatives, and from the order book heat map, if we do go to 30k due to something unforeseen, you can expect I am going to be buying up those levels as well.
I will be putting out more charts this week. I just thought I would stop by and say hello.
Note
QQQ and BTC have diverged for the moment. This is good.Note
This is important because as institutions look for yields, the only place they can find it right now is the crypto space. They are forced to be risk on. Same thing happened to the retail market when the interest rate dropped. They were no longer able to gain yields safely by putting their money in a savings account and needed to take risk on investments like securities etc.Note
Due to trading in range, bands on the BTC 1D chart are officially as tight as they were during the July breakout. I have been measuring them for about a week now. Impactful move is coming soon.Note
Sell the rumor buy the news? LOL So BTC is flirting with both the main upward trendline and the main downward trendline all in the same day. I am sure everyone is losing their mind.
Meanwhile I already juiced this zone, so I am rather bored to be honest. I have been trading some volatility but even that is getting boring. I expect this will be the same until the first fed rate hike date.
Note
Everyone: Surely BTC needs to respect the bullish divergence on every timeframe.BTC: hold my beer.
Note
Here we gooooooooooNote
Still no liquidation candle so money made from volatility is minimal. Boring. 30k for BTC in play. I have a couple spot bids open at 36 and 32. I should have listened to my close friend and resident whale when he mentioned he opened orders at 32 and 30 a month ago. LOL I have accumulated this zone dry. I will wait for next support if it comes to start accumulating again. I know Michael Saylor's Avg is currently around 30k so I assume if it goes lower than that, he will buy the entire way down and obviously my friend will too LOL. Overall BTC would have to go below 15k to really get close to my pain zone and I don't think that will happen.
Since you all are probably wondering what I am going to do, I am:
-Opening major BTC limit orders at 32 and 36k (spot).
-Opening contracts on volatility (ongoing for past month).
-Assuming Q1 will be bearish, maybe Q2 as well depending on fed response.
-Rotate small caps alts (5% of my portfolio) to BTC at next major lower high then back to small cap alts after BTC make first bullish leg.
-Accumulate at next major psychological support zone, and the next one and the next one, etc.
-Take profit aggressively at lower highs to fund accumulation if bearish downtrend is lengthy.
That's the worst case scenario game plan for me folks.
Note
This price action does not make much sense in bearish terms. No cascade and price holding at 38k?? On top of that BTC was pushed back into a tight correlation with tradfi markets. On chain did not ping me because we never got a proper top, and all other data in basically in the middle of meaningful metrics. I know Fidelity among others are looking to get into the space. I wonder if this is a concerted effort to drop price due to fed hawkish talks wait until rate hikes, then blast price up along all asset markets. It is very strange price action, that is for sure.Note
So I have been speaking with other TA analysts for the past few week. I told them I had set orders for BTC at 36 and 32. Missed the 32k fill and had to move up, but the 36k is in the bag. I am waiting for a range to develop, however I have been buying in this range similar to the last range. We finally see a meaningful candle on BTC 1D which is being backed up by volume which we have not seen since the last pump. I will be keeping my eye on this and I am going to keep buying at these levels.Note
I am looking at things the same as my last update a week ago. I am waiting for a range to develop. I want to see another test of the bottom before putting out any charts. The strategy is pretty clear for me personally, buy at discount. I understand not everyone can do that. If I put out a chart it would just say "this is the range I am buying". Since BTC is now extremely correlated with QQQ, I am getting a 2 for 1 deal in both markets. The downside to that is BTC is stuck reacting to the market which will be up and down until March. What I do know is that supply chain issues are improving quickly which will be beneficial for everyone including tech. The UPS earnings reflect that same fact. Tim cook from Apple said the same thing. Ultimately, I am positioning myself in massive tech assets, alts, NFTs, and BTC. Some alts I have purchased recently are SOL, ADA, LUNA, FTM, MATIC, AVAX, ONE, KDA, CRV, CLV, MOVR, DOT amongst others.
When I get a retest of the lows, I will put out directional charts. Right now however, I am just buying the dip.
Note
Watching large cap stocks trade like altcoins right now in a weird ultra sensitive market makes me feel good about having a large portion of my wealth in crypto. Investing in a company like Meta for a 3x return that can drop 25% on a bad earnings day makes alts look great. Wait until you see QQQ freak out tomorrow. Because of this, BTC is likely going to take a dump as well. At least with crypto you get real returns for the same amount of risk.Note
I have said many times, when in range, do not buy at resistance, buy at support. Put your bids around the support levels. Just beware of stop hunts. Not a problem if you are accumulating long term. Having order book info or heatmaps is even better, but that is only if you are making daily income on trading. I can see a ton of orders around the lower levels of the range and I expect that liquidity to get hit. I have orders there as well so we will see how it goes.Note
Volume has notably increased over the exchanges since yesterday. Whales have been accumulating for a couple weeks now. The volume is the most important to me. If we see a steady increase in volume and a push for BTC above 47, that would be extremely bullish.
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