ADX - Critical Growth Pattern Adoption/Rejection Approaching
Updated
ADX has followed this pattern--as have many Crypto's to date--namely ETH traded Alt-coins. The pattern is best described as a tendency for cryptos to succeed in long term growth earlier than expected upon entry into markets like Bittrex--after graduating from small exchanges--IFF the Crypto in question breaks out of the initial down-trend cycle.
To illustrate this point, I have indicated several junctures in the near future that can serve as the "make or break" point in terms of overall long term success. This should be indicated within the next 1-3 days.
First, I compare moving averages at rates of 2-, 3-, and 7-day intervals, similar to a standard MACD of 12,26,9; however, the short term analysis requires more pattern identification in less time due to the fluctuations of Alt-coin values as the "third tier" of Coin. Let me digress for a minute... I consider BTC the current number 1 Crypto in terms of value per coin; I consider ETH the number 2 Crypto in terms of value per coin; and I lump all Alt-coins together at first as the "third tier".
i.e. You want the Gold? Great, go with BTC. You want the currency that will be used as the eventual mainstream backbone between all Cryptos? Great, go with ETH. If you want to play with "Stocks" in the re-birth of the NYSE on a global scale? Great, play with Alts.
Getting back to the topic here, third tier can also be split into two categories once it goes beyond a critical juncture that separates the long term growers, from the long term "failers" (a.k.a. "Shit Coins", as they've been publicly deemed). This only truly applies to ETH-Crypto because the volatility in the BTC market is too directly tied to the difficult-to-perfectly-time BTC HODLer increases within the direct BTC market.
I believe we are currently fast-approaching this breaking point for ADX-ETH (1-3 days)
1) Up-trending lower support limits indicate overall support for ADX-ETH (as indicated with two similar lower trend lines). While we have support there, there is also a tendency for Alts to decrease in "potential maximum" until the break even point leads the Alt into the promise land of "Higher Highs".
2) Higher Highs will be more-easily achieved this time around as we have come down to a tightly-oscillating pattern--in addition to the increasing lower support lines.
3) The cycles of growth followed by decline have decreased in frequency since the initial massive increase that occurred when the coin "broke out" (or got support from a considerably greater amount of sources) near its entry point into larger markets like Bittrex.
My conclusive recommendation would be to buy ADX at no more than 0.00275 ETH/ADX until the long term down-trend is proven to have been breached by a substantial margin. If you have the opportunity to buy ADX at <0.00265 ETH, you are at a safe buying point with options to get out in the mid-term future (10-15 days) if the trend reverts to a decline in the next 1-3 days.
If you have questions on my indicators, please reach out for an explanation. This is my first post on TradingView, so I'm still getting the hang of it all.
Best of luck in your research and knowledge gathering in your markets of interest!
-Big J
EDIT: I'm still unfamiliar with publishing here, so I've included the test on my Chart below.
Growth on 8/15 lasts 3 days -- Follows downtrend for 19 days
Growth on 9/4 lasts 3 days -- Follows downtrend for 15 days (apparent @ 0.0018)
Growth on 9/22 lasts 8-9 days -- Follows downtrend for 15 days (apparent support @ 0.0025)
Growth on 10/21 lasts 3-4 days -- Follows downtrend for 11 days (apparent support @ 0.0025)
Growth on 11/5 lasts 5 days -- Follows downtrend for "X" days
As of 11/17, we are on day "X" = 8, and at current rate of mid-long term "growth-downtrend" we should see sizable growth.
Prediction: 8 </= X <= 11
Made on 11/17 (08:00 AM CST)
To illustrate this point, I have indicated several junctures in the near future that can serve as the "make or break" point in terms of overall long term success. This should be indicated within the next 1-3 days.
First, I compare moving averages at rates of 2-, 3-, and 7-day intervals, similar to a standard MACD of 12,26,9; however, the short term analysis requires more pattern identification in less time due to the fluctuations of Alt-coin values as the "third tier" of Coin. Let me digress for a minute... I consider BTC the current number 1 Crypto in terms of value per coin; I consider ETH the number 2 Crypto in terms of value per coin; and I lump all Alt-coins together at first as the "third tier".
i.e. You want the Gold? Great, go with BTC. You want the currency that will be used as the eventual mainstream backbone between all Cryptos? Great, go with ETH. If you want to play with "Stocks" in the re-birth of the NYSE on a global scale? Great, play with Alts.
Getting back to the topic here, third tier can also be split into two categories once it goes beyond a critical juncture that separates the long term growers, from the long term "failers" (a.k.a. "Shit Coins", as they've been publicly deemed). This only truly applies to ETH-Crypto because the volatility in the BTC market is too directly tied to the difficult-to-perfectly-time BTC HODLer increases within the direct BTC market.
I believe we are currently fast-approaching this breaking point for ADX-ETH (1-3 days)
1) Up-trending lower support limits indicate overall support for ADX-ETH (as indicated with two similar lower trend lines). While we have support there, there is also a tendency for Alts to decrease in "potential maximum" until the break even point leads the Alt into the promise land of "Higher Highs".
2) Higher Highs will be more-easily achieved this time around as we have come down to a tightly-oscillating pattern--in addition to the increasing lower support lines.
3) The cycles of growth followed by decline have decreased in frequency since the initial massive increase that occurred when the coin "broke out" (or got support from a considerably greater amount of sources) near its entry point into larger markets like Bittrex.
My conclusive recommendation would be to buy ADX at no more than 0.00275 ETH/ADX until the long term down-trend is proven to have been breached by a substantial margin. If you have the opportunity to buy ADX at <0.00265 ETH, you are at a safe buying point with options to get out in the mid-term future (10-15 days) if the trend reverts to a decline in the next 1-3 days.
If you have questions on my indicators, please reach out for an explanation. This is my first post on TradingView, so I'm still getting the hang of it all.
Best of luck in your research and knowledge gathering in your markets of interest!
-Big J
EDIT: I'm still unfamiliar with publishing here, so I've included the test on my Chart below.
Growth on 8/15 lasts 3 days -- Follows downtrend for 19 days
Growth on 9/4 lasts 3 days -- Follows downtrend for 15 days (apparent @ 0.0018)
Growth on 9/22 lasts 8-9 days -- Follows downtrend for 15 days (apparent support @ 0.0025)
Growth on 10/21 lasts 3-4 days -- Follows downtrend for 11 days (apparent support @ 0.0025)
Growth on 11/5 lasts 5 days -- Follows downtrend for "X" days
As of 11/17, we are on day "X" = 8, and at current rate of mid-long term "growth-downtrend" we should see sizable growth.
Prediction: 8 </= X <= 11
Made on 11/17 (08:00 AM CST)
Note
After a massive increase in ETH value, there were fantastic buy opportunities rather than a tremendous selling gain as I had projected. I managed to sell ~2300 shares at 0.0031 up from my adjusted/weighted buy-in price point of 0.00296.Profits weren't amazing, but it's the small compound gains that we should all be targeting nonetheless.
I would stay tuned and grab this bad boy anywhere around 0.0026 ETH/ADX (a steal at that price--even at 3370/ETH) all the way up to 0.00285 ETH/ADX if you'd like to see some good gains in ETH holdings.
Don't buy above 0.00295 ETH/ADX unless you are setting additional conditional low buys below that price point.
Good luck, and as always, feel free to ask me questions or speak your own thoughts on ADX! :)
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