ADXETH - Short-to-Mid Term Pattern Change - Critical Price Point
Updated
Good day, I hope this reaches you with high spirits and while you are raking in the dough from your trading practices!
Here's the TL;DR--
If ADX closes above $1.48 today, while ETH continues a downtrend, you should expect ADXUSD to break out of it's current price channel. However, ADXUSD should still respect the wider channel of $1.90 maximum for some time (while we may see some days from now until that wider channel is permanently breached where the price of ADXUSD breaks the $2.00 threshold).
Long version/explanation of findings (below).
I digress...
What I have been following as of late has been an obviously wild ride as ETHUSD has been experiencing tremendous growth--followed by the inevitable indecisive trading of many. The most similar experience I can recount was back when ETHUSD was ~$330 for the first time since it initially spiked to ~$390 only a couple weeks prior. Soon thereafter, ETHUSD saw an even lower floor at ~$300. Meanwhile, the growth of ADXUSD had ever so closely mirrored the increases and decreases of ETHUSD.
Fast-forward to today. We are staring at ETHUSD as it finally appears to be starting its next downtrend...Obviously I say that with hesitation as we are approaching the new year and crypto is still increasingly popular everywhere around the world. Why does this impact ADX?
A typical directly proportional growth/decay relationship would lead us to believe that the value of ADXETH should increase as the value of ETHUSD decreases. i.e. It takes more ETH to buy ADX when ETHUSD holds less value, and inversely it requires less ETH to buy ADX when .
However, this is a slightly inaccurate way of describing the relationship between ADXETH and ETHUSD--the primary reason being a tacit "lag" time between true value of ADXETH and ETHUSD.
As shown in the chart, I have chosen to assess the ADXUSD (as this is a much more psychological barrier needing to be broken than the ADXETH barrier), and I have overlaid a chart of ADXETH (simply for reference).
Looking back to 10/13/17, when ETHUSD opened at ~$300 and closed at ~$330 (call it a 10% swell). We saw a following decline from ~$330 back down to ~$278 by the date of 10/23/17 (call it -15%).
During this time of 15% regression, we would expect ADXETH to proportionally increase if the USD value was staying relatively consistent; instead, we saw ADXETH go from 0.0029 to 0.0030 (call it 3.5%). However, on 10/24 ADXETH went from 0.0030 to 0.0035 (call it 15%).
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm....isn't this strange....it's like the ADXETH prices don't swing until there is confirmation that ETHUSD is moving either up or down.... Now how strange is that??
Okay, okay, I'm not trying to be conceited here, but this trend follows literally every single successful/stable Altcoin. Every. Single. One.
If you wait to buy an Altcoin while ETHUSD is pumping and AltcoinUSD is stagnant or showing positive growth, then you will be rewarded many-fold on your investment upon ETHUSD coming back down to a stable value. There will be many buy and sell points throughout that journey, but you can almost guarantee a positive net gain in base crypto (ETH in this case) if you buy while ETHUSD is high and then sell your Alts when ETHUSD starts its descent.
I have:
- bought at 0.00242, resold at 0.00298
- bought at 0.00289, resold at 0.00335
I will buy again
- if ADX hits 0.0031 while ETHUSD is below $440
(This puts my target price point at ~$1.34 in current market conditions.)
I believe ETHUSD will come to an eventual value of $375-400, so I trade as if the price were to plummet only to the high end of my prediction, as well as with respect to the current ADXUSD value of the coin. Right now ADX is valued at $1.49. Although I am optimistic that ADXETH will continue to rise in the short-to-mid term--barring any setback by another ETHUSD surge--I am cautiously optimistic because I've been close to being burnt before.
Here's the TL;DR--
If ADX closes above $1.48 today, while ETH continues a downtrend, you should expect ADXUSD to break out of it's current price channel. However, ADXUSD should still respect the wider channel of $1.90 maximum for some time (while we may see some days from now until that wider channel is permanently breached where the price of ADXUSD breaks the $2.00 threshold).
Long version/explanation of findings (below).
I digress...
What I have been following as of late has been an obviously wild ride as ETHUSD has been experiencing tremendous growth--followed by the inevitable indecisive trading of many. The most similar experience I can recount was back when ETHUSD was ~$330 for the first time since it initially spiked to ~$390 only a couple weeks prior. Soon thereafter, ETHUSD saw an even lower floor at ~$300. Meanwhile, the growth of ADXUSD had ever so closely mirrored the increases and decreases of ETHUSD.
Fast-forward to today. We are staring at ETHUSD as it finally appears to be starting its next downtrend...Obviously I say that with hesitation as we are approaching the new year and crypto is still increasingly popular everywhere around the world. Why does this impact ADX?
A typical directly proportional growth/decay relationship would lead us to believe that the value of ADXETH should increase as the value of ETHUSD decreases. i.e. It takes more ETH to buy ADX when ETHUSD holds less value, and inversely it requires less ETH to buy ADX when .
However, this is a slightly inaccurate way of describing the relationship between ADXETH and ETHUSD--the primary reason being a tacit "lag" time between true value of ADXETH and ETHUSD.
As shown in the chart, I have chosen to assess the ADXUSD (as this is a much more psychological barrier needing to be broken than the ADXETH barrier), and I have overlaid a chart of ADXETH (simply for reference).
Looking back to 10/13/17, when ETHUSD opened at ~$300 and closed at ~$330 (call it a 10% swell). We saw a following decline from ~$330 back down to ~$278 by the date of 10/23/17 (call it -15%).
During this time of 15% regression, we would expect ADXETH to proportionally increase if the USD value was staying relatively consistent; instead, we saw ADXETH go from 0.0029 to 0.0030 (call it 3.5%). However, on 10/24 ADXETH went from 0.0030 to 0.0035 (call it 15%).
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm....isn't this strange....it's like the ADXETH prices don't swing until there is confirmation that ETHUSD is moving either up or down.... Now how strange is that??
Okay, okay, I'm not trying to be conceited here, but this trend follows literally every single successful/stable Altcoin. Every. Single. One.
If you wait to buy an Altcoin while ETHUSD is pumping and AltcoinUSD is stagnant or showing positive growth, then you will be rewarded many-fold on your investment upon ETHUSD coming back down to a stable value. There will be many buy and sell points throughout that journey, but you can almost guarantee a positive net gain in base crypto (ETH in this case) if you buy while ETHUSD is high and then sell your Alts when ETHUSD starts its descent.
I have:
- bought at 0.00242, resold at 0.00298
- bought at 0.00289, resold at 0.00335
I will buy again
- if ADX hits 0.0031 while ETHUSD is below $440
(This puts my target price point at ~$1.34 in current market conditions.)
I believe ETHUSD will come to an eventual value of $375-400, so I trade as if the price were to plummet only to the high end of my prediction, as well as with respect to the current ADXUSD value of the coin. Right now ADX is valued at $1.49. Although I am optimistic that ADXETH will continue to rise in the short-to-mid term--barring any setback by another ETHUSD surge--I am cautiously optimistic because I've been close to being burnt before.
Note
I am scooping ADX up today, and you should do the same if you're in the position to spend some ETH.You may have chances to buy as low as $1.10--or lower--depending on the price of ETH.
I have purchased at:
--0.00293
--0.00285
I have purchases in place at:
--0.00275
--0.00258
I sincerely doubt that we will see 0.00258, but it's not out of the question. We may even test the lower channel limit of the Dark Purple uptrend.
Absolutely not a doubt in my mind we won't see $1.75 (0.0036-0.0045+ ETH) by the end of the year, or mid-January at the latest. Many other predictions out there putting ADX at $2.00+ by Jan-Feb, so I'm not alone.
Note
One more note to add to that previous update--If we do start a several-day slide below the lower limit of Dark Purple channel, it could be very sharp drop off, but rebound should be no longer than 3-5 days max before next major run if drop is unsustainably sharp.
Trade closed: stop reached
Stop was reached during simultaneous ETH/LTC/NEO/XRP run. Looking for target buys below $1.05 and target sells at $1.50 conservatively up to $1.80 aggressively. If $1.80 is reached, then growth may continue over $2.00. This could be a mini-moon we are headed into.Trade active
Active with the above buy/sell mentality.
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