Long

Nehterland ATX: Trump Backfires European Far Right Wing Parties

Updated

If you see this chart: Do you believe this is Netherlands AEX? The Stockmarket Index of a country, where most Traders expect the victor of the far right and anti islam party PVV from Geert Wilders?

The PVV follows and copy the politics of Donald Trump and is in favour for Vladimir Putin also.

Fact´s are, right now, clear: Dutch Voters getting more and more scared about any far right poltics and European voters in general are right now more sceptic about parties based on anti-Islam and anti-EU/Euro only. This is a tremendous change within a few weeks only starting on Trumps Inauguration Day on January 20th. Keep your attention now to the facts, that the Dutch election is coming soon and that a lot of Pro´s betting against the Euro and European Government Bonds still because they have no clue about this quick change on voters mind - until now. Maybe this might change again - than we need to follow this.

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It´s The Politics. Stop Following Technical Analysis ...

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FEB 23 2017: Latest Polls showing that Geert Wilders Anti-Islam party definitely lost 25% of likely vote
PVV: 16%, down from 20%
Source: peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl

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FEB 23 2017: The chart is showing the huge drop of likely voters for the far right wing party PVV.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_general_election,_2017

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FEB 23 2017: Prospect of a centrist alliance snaps 3-day losing streak for sovereign debt

Source:ft.com/content/d2ca3218-f9a9-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71

Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.

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FEB 23 2017: Wilders PVV loosing more ground. Dutch Prime Ministers Rutte´s PVV Party is taking the lead now.
Todays polls:
VVD: 28 Seats
PVV: 26 Seats
Source: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentswahl_in_den_Niederlanden_2017

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FEB 23 Februar: The Washington Post counted 133 false or misleading claims in the first 35 days of Trump´s Presidency. US-Traders might underestimate that European Voters have a diffrent view on Trumps lies. Some of Trumps lies are about European Countries and had been answered allready on Trump twitter account by European Citizens. Trumps repeated lies backfires European far right parties. washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims/

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France Yields: Fear Indicator / French Election

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FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting

Marine LePen: 26%
Emanuel Macron: 23,5%

This is the highest number of likely voteres for Macron and might explain the sharp drop in France Government Yields today and in the last three days. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Source: dn.se/nyheter/varlden/fake-sweden-expert-on-fox-news-has-criminal-convictions-in-us-no-connection-to-swedish-security/

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FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776

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FEB 26 2016: New France Poll: Macron narrows gap to LePen for first round of FFrance election
Macron: 25%
LePen: 27%
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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MAR 1 2017: Dutch Stockmarket is closing in to 2015 All Time Highs.

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MAR 03 2017: Second Poll is showing that Prime Minister Rutte´s VVD is taking the lead in the Netherlands. The far right anti EU and anti muslim party PVV is now second.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

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MAR 05 2017: New Poll is showing wilders taking the lead by one seat. Same time the 50plus party losing more ground to 5%. 50+ and PVV together in June 2016 had up to 50 seats (of 150). Now its 30. A loss of 40% if likely voters since June 2016.

PVV 25 Seats
VVD 24 Seats

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MAR 06 2017: Polls unch.

The Dutch election was wide open going into the last full week of campaigning, as support for the populist message of Geert Wilders declined and Prime Minister Mark Rutte failed to pick up the balance.
Source: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-06/dutch-election-wide-open-as-parties-vie-to-pick-up-wilders-votes

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MAR 6 2017 Investor fears over Europe could be overdone, but watch out for the US: Experts

Quote: Investors are concerned about the continued rise of populism could upset the current political and economic system, but Andrew Parry, head of equities at Hermes Investment Management, expects Europe to react against populism this year.
"There's the political risk that appears to be hanging over Europe. I think somewhat ironically, the more that people think that Trump is the embodiment through populism of the new economic model, the more you actually get a reaction against populism in Europe," he told CNBC's Street Signs. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/06/europe-politics-investment-investing-populism-fear-us.html

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MAR 07 2017: The Dutch election is a dead heat, and the stakes for the EU could be huge

Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action

Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD).
Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration.
"That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election."
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-election-and-geert-wilder-future-of-european-union.html

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MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-populist-wilders-loses-ground-in-the-polls-as-trump-effect-comes-into-play-analyst.html

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MAR 08 2017: Wilder far right fatty loosing more ground now

PVV: 23 Seats
VVD: 25 Seats

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MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/08/frances-macron-seen-on-top-in-first-round-presidential-vote-poll.html

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MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

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MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower%2C-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

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MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

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APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source: bild.de/politik/inland/frauke-petry/that-was-a-serious-challenge-51129132.bild.html

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APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/06/ecbs-draghi-says-monetary-policy-stance-is-still-appropriate.html

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APR 08 2017: Marine LePen now lost 20% of likely voters for first round of election compared to June 2016
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

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Exclusive: Portugal says economy growing faster than forecast investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive:-portugal-says-economy-growing-faster-than-forecast-488109

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UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

Trade closed: stop reached

All European Long Trades closed on profit taking. For additional information please click on the DAX chart and read further up dates.

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