The chart illustrates a macro falling wedge pattern on the 3-day timeframe — a bullish reversal structure commonly found at the end of a downtrend. A similar pattern previously played out in mid-2023, resulting in a sharp bullish breakout and a 2x price rally.
🟢 First Falling Wedge (2023)
Pattern: A falling wedge formed mid-2023.
🟢 Second Falling Wedge (Current)
Projection Logic:
Since this wedge is 3 times longer than the first one in duration…
It could take ~240 days (80 days × 3) post-breakout to reach the new ATH
Conclusion
🟢 First Falling Wedge (2023)
Pattern: A falling wedge formed mid-2023.
- Breakout: Price broke above the wedge resistance with strong volume confirmation.
- Price Action: After the breakout, price doubled (2x move) from the wedge's height, reaching its ATH (All-Time High).
- Time to ATH: Approximately 80 days after breakout to reach peak levels.
🟢 Second Falling Wedge (Current)
- Structure: A much larger and longer falling wedge that has been forming for nearly a full year.
- Breakout Imminent or Just Happened: Price seems to be on the verge of breaking out of the wedge.
- Measured Move: Just like the first wedge, a 2x projection from the wedge’s height is plotted, targeting the $4+ range.
Projection Logic:
Since this wedge is 3 times longer than the first one in duration…
It could take ~240 days (80 days × 3) post-breakout to reach the new ATH
Conclusion
- The current falling wedge breakout setup mirrors the first historical pattern — but at a larger scale.
- Given that the pattern has taken 3x longer to form, it is reasonable (based on fractal theory and price/time symmetry) to expect a similar but extended rally, both in magnitude (2x) and duration (~240 days).
- This analysis suggests a long-term bullish outlook for ARB, with patience being key for traders looking to ride this macro move.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.