AUDCAD Long: Riding Aussie Strength vs Weak Loonie

95
๐Ÿ”น Pair: AUD/CAD
๐Ÿ”น Timeframe: 4H
๐Ÿ”น Direction: Long
๐Ÿ”น Strategy: Trend Continuation + Macro Confluence
๐Ÿ”น Trade Active: ๐Ÿ“ 0.8945 (CMP)

๐Ÿ“Š Fundamental Bias

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ AUD โ€“ Bullish
โ€ข Seasonal Surge: Historically strong from May 19 to June 10.
โ€ข Conditional Score Gain: AUD rose from 21 โ†’ 24 (momentum improving).
โ€ข Macro View: Inflation stabilizing, dovish stance offset by improving sentiment.
โ€ข VIX < 20: Risk-on conditions favor AUD.

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ CAD โ€“ Bearish
โ€ข Flat Conditional Score: No improvement (2 โ†’ 2).
โ€ข Hawkish CB but Weak Data: CPI softening, trade risks persist.
โ€ข Global Sentiment: Oil stagnation + cautious BoC tone = headwinds for CAD.

โธป

๐Ÿง  Confluence Summary

โœ… AUD macro + seasonal strength
โœ… CAD remains fundamentally weak
โœ… Risk-on supports commodity currencies
โœ… 4H trendline support holding


โธป

๐Ÿ–ผ๏ธ Technical Setup
โ€ข Entry: 0.8945
โ€ข Stop Loss: 0.8890 (below ascending trendline + support zone)
โ€ข Take Profit: 0.9036 (prior resistance + TP1)
โ€ข Risk:Reward: ~1.67

๐ŸŸ  Optional Target: 0.9045 for extended move.

๐Ÿ“Œ Outlook

Iโ€™m bullish on AUDCAD for the week of May 19โ€“23, supported by:
โ€ข Seasonal patterns
โ€ข Risk tone
โ€ข CAD stagnation
โ€ข Clear trend structure

Will look to trail SL as price closes above 0.8975. Clean invalidation below 0.8890.

โธป

๐Ÿ’ฌ Whatโ€™s your bias on AUD this week?

Drop a comment & letโ€™s discuss ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“ˆ

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