AUD/CAD Analysis: Downside Risks Amplify Amid Weak Price Action
AUD/CAD faces mounting downside pressure, as both technical and fundamental signals align against bullish sentiment. Large speculators appear increasingly disinterested in driving meaningful upside, as reflected in lackluster price action and shrinking volume—a classic sign of a market primed for a breakdown.
Retail traders, however, remain skewed toward long positions, expecting a reversal that the current chart structure fails to support. The pair’s ineffective movements and absence of significant participation suggest limited conviction, leaving it vulnerable to further declines as liquidity pockets below key support levels come into focus.
With a combination of weak volume, bearish institutional bias, and overexposed retail longs, AUD/CAD appears set for continued downside. Traders should remain cautious and monitor liquidity zones and shifts in sentiment to anticipate the pair’s next move.
Retail traders, however, remain skewed toward long positions, expecting a reversal that the current chart structure fails to support. The pair’s ineffective movements and absence of significant participation suggest limited conviction, leaving it vulnerable to further declines as liquidity pockets below key support levels come into focus.
With a combination of weak volume, bearish institutional bias, and overexposed retail longs, AUD/CAD appears set for continued downside. Traders should remain cautious and monitor liquidity zones and shifts in sentiment to anticipate the pair’s next move.
Trade active
After analyzing the COT reports and retail sentiment, I adjusted all my weekly positions accordingly. Based on the analysis I shared this weekend, I initially considered 6-7 pairs but have now narrowed it down to 4. The other positions were either scaled out in profit or closed at break-even.Currently, I remain short on the following: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/CAD. I've scaled my positions and managed stops using ATR-based adjustments.
This is how trading works: new data means reassess and check if anything changes your thesis—not hope for the best.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.