🔍 Technical Context:
Market Structure:
Price is in a long-term sideways range with lower highs. AUD/CAD is struggling to break above the 0.90–0.91 region, showing signs of exhaustion.
Zone of Interest (Supply):
Purple box: 0.9000 – 0.9100
A clean historical rejection zone that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times since 2022.
Entry Type:
Sell Limit @ 0.9070 placed slightly below the top of the resistance zone to increase likelihood of getting triggered on a spike.
Stop Loss:
0.9175 – above multiple wick rejections and key structure highs. Allows breathing room for volatility without compromising the structure.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 0.8650 (conservative target at strong support)
TP2 (optional extension): 0.8500 (major long-term range low)
Risk-Reward Ratio:
~1:3 minimum to TP1, potentially 1:4+ if extended to 0.8500.
🧠 Strategic Notes:
Trigger Conditions:
Wait for a retrace to the 0.9070 zone rather than enter at market open. This is based on the idea that a final upward effort could grab liquidity and fill your limit.
Monthly Candle Watch:
Monday is month-end. Monitor the monthly close to determine if the structure still supports the trade idea. If the close is strongly bullish and you’re triggered early, be open to closing the trade early to avoid deeper drawdown.
Why It’s High Probability:
Multi-year horizontal structure
Repeated failure to hold above 0.90
Candlestick wicks rejecting the same zone
Fundamentals slightly favor CAD over AUD (higher real yields, oil correlation)
Defined invalidation point and asymmetric reward
Market Structure:
Price is in a long-term sideways range with lower highs. AUD/CAD is struggling to break above the 0.90–0.91 region, showing signs of exhaustion.
Zone of Interest (Supply):
Purple box: 0.9000 – 0.9100
A clean historical rejection zone that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times since 2022.
Entry Type:
Sell Limit @ 0.9070 placed slightly below the top of the resistance zone to increase likelihood of getting triggered on a spike.
Stop Loss:
0.9175 – above multiple wick rejections and key structure highs. Allows breathing room for volatility without compromising the structure.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 0.8650 (conservative target at strong support)
TP2 (optional extension): 0.8500 (major long-term range low)
Risk-Reward Ratio:
~1:3 minimum to TP1, potentially 1:4+ if extended to 0.8500.
🧠 Strategic Notes:
Trigger Conditions:
Wait for a retrace to the 0.9070 zone rather than enter at market open. This is based on the idea that a final upward effort could grab liquidity and fill your limit.
Monthly Candle Watch:
Monday is month-end. Monitor the monthly close to determine if the structure still supports the trade idea. If the close is strongly bullish and you’re triggered early, be open to closing the trade early to avoid deeper drawdown.
Why It’s High Probability:
Multi-year horizontal structure
Repeated failure to hold above 0.90
Candlestick wicks rejecting the same zone
Fundamentals slightly favor CAD over AUD (higher real yields, oil correlation)
Defined invalidation point and asymmetric reward
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.