AUD/JPY Analysis: Speculators Eye Potential Downside Amid Retail
AUD/JPY presents a compelling case for downside potential as large speculators increasingly position short, according to COT data. This shift in institutional sentiment contrasts with the prevailing retail bullish bias, with many traders still holding long positions, expecting the pair to continue its upward momentum.
However, when retail sentiment becomes too optimistic, especially near critical resistance levels, it often signals a reversal opportunity for larger players. With institutions positioning for further downside, AUD/JPY could be primed for a pullback or breakdown as retail traders’ stop-losses become targets for liquidity grabs.
Given the contrast between institutional positioning and retail sentiment, AUD/JPY remains vulnerable to downside pressure. Monitoring sentiment extremes and watching for liquidity events around key levels could provide key insights into the next major move for the pair.
However, when retail sentiment becomes too optimistic, especially near critical resistance levels, it often signals a reversal opportunity for larger players. With institutions positioning for further downside, AUD/JPY could be primed for a pullback or breakdown as retail traders’ stop-losses become targets for liquidity grabs.
Given the contrast between institutional positioning and retail sentiment, AUD/JPY remains vulnerable to downside pressure. Monitoring sentiment extremes and watching for liquidity events around key levels could provide key insights into the next major move for the pair.
Trade active
After analyzing the COT reports and retail sentiment, I adjusted all my weekly positions accordingly. Based on the analysis I shared this weekend, I initially considered 6-7 pairs but have now narrowed it down to 4. The other positions were either scaled out in profit or closed at break-even.Currently, I remain short on the following: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/CAD. I've scaled my positions and managed stops using ATR-based adjustments.
This is how trading works: new data means reassess and check if anything changes your thesis—not hope for the best.
Note
tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L2N3N502N:0-australian-dollar-hits-4-month-low-as-economy-undershoots/Well... Australian dollar hits 4-month low as economy undershoots
Note
The GDP numbers came in at 0.3%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast. While the figure is a slight improvement overall, it underperforms relative to expectations.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.