AUDNZD Rejected – CPI & RBA Dovish Bias Pressures Aussie

Key Resistance Zone: 1.0780 – 1.0800
The pair tested this area twice and failed to break above, forming a clear double-top pattern. This is a bearish signal suggesting buyers are exhausted.

Price Action:
A strong bearish rejection candle followed the second resistance test, aligning with historical resistance and structure. The pair is now showing signs of reversal.

Support Levels to Watch:

🥅 Target 1: 1.0707 – Previous consolidation zone

🥅 Target 2: 1.0677 – Key swing low

📉 Stop Loss: Above 1.0800

Pattern: Rising wedge structure breaking down, signaling downside continuation.

🔍 Fundamental Analysis
🇦🇺 Australia (AUD) – Weakness Potential
RBA’s Dovish Leaning:
RBA Assistant Governor Kent emphasized external FX market risks and cautious positioning on monetary tightening, which dampens rate hike expectations【source: RBA speech】.

Key Data Incoming:

April 30: Quarterly CPI data
Forecasts suggest core inflation might ease, reducing pressure on the RBA to act. If CPI undershoots, it could trigger AUD selling.

AUD also faces pressure from global growth fears and risk-off sentiment.

🇳🇿 New Zealand (NZD) – Relative Strength
While the RBNZ has already started easing, the NZD has shown resilience amid improving trade balance and stable economic performance.

NZ Business Confidence is also due, which could influence near-term NZD moves, but broader positioning supports the Kiwi.

🧠 Sentiment Overview
The risk-reward favors shorts here:

Clear technical rejection

Bearish macro backdrop for AUD

Relative NZD strength

CPI data will be the key catalyst, and positioning ahead of it looks justified given current chart structure.

📝 Conclusion:
AUDNZD looks primed for a downside correction after repeated rejections at a major resistance zone. With dovish RBA commentary and potential soft inflation data ahead, short setups are favored with targets at 1.0707 and 1.0677.

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