Short

AUDUSD Short Setup @ 0.7590

Updated

I'm expecting a short-term correction on USD, which may pull AU back to areas of previous support. AU has been ranging within an ascending wedge for quite some time, so I'm targeting the bottom of this wedge as a tp. The target sell zone is between 0.7550 and 0.7590. These are my entry, sl, and tp targets:

Entry Sell: 0.75900
Stop Loss: 0.77550
Take Profit: 0.73025

Regarding the poor risk/reward ratio- I'm planning on opening a small position at 0.75900, then averaging out with more shorts if the price continues to climb toward the upper trendline. I'd think 0.7680 would be a safe SL, but you never know what can happen in terms of fundamentals. My take profit is above the trendline and 0.786 fib.

I may enter at a position earlier than my stated target, depending on the status of RSI and EMAs. If so, I'll update this accordingly.

Thanks for checking out my idea!

Note

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/t/T46W3Z3T.png

A wider view on the daily timeframe.

Trade active

Short entry price hit, triggering my sell.

Trade active

So far so good. I have a feeling we'll see some consolidation in this area before a continuation down.

Note

I'm still active here. The price is ranging following that spike up following the first round of the French election. I've taken profit on 25% of my position on this dip (see chart below). I'll continue to hold.

tradingview.com/chart/n1wLObfS/

Note

Note

Taking partial profits again here. Selling more if we have a bounce upward.

Note

It may be a good time to take some profits off the table again while I wait for a new supply zone (see below- yellow box). RSI oversold, MACD cross approaching. Not ready to buy on bearish bias, but am prepared to sell on rises.

Note

This rise wasn't surprising except that it occurred faster than expected. This is looking like a good price level to add to this short (.618 fib).

Note

Time for some partial profit taking! Price dropped as expected and through the green trendline. We are at oversold RSI and MACD crossover, so we may see a bit of a correction over the next couple of days. I'm targeting the 1.272 fib line from the previous rise as a turnaround point.

I'm expecting the price to retrace back to that trendline (former support, now resistance), then continue on down to my target area. I'll add to my short near that green line, possible earlier. The price may continue toward the brown 100 SMA, so it's an area of interest and price may stall here.

It's possible I'll complete close the trade before my tp is hit, but I'm still happy with my target. I will update.

Trade closed manually

Taking full profit on this trade at this point. The price at the point of closing is approximately 190 pips (0.7590 to 0.73980) from my entry point. There was a lot of selling and re-entering between my entry level and here, so over-all it was a successful trade.

I'm closing this now because I feel we are in for a bit of a longer term correction/range and my capital can be better used in a different pair. My original target could be hit, but I'm guessing the lower trendline (black chart) above my target, will act as the eventual pivot zone.

I may re-enter a short at the level noted in my most recent chart (0.74600 area), but I'll publish a new idea if that's the case.

Hopefully you've benefited from this analysis. Thanks for all the views and likes!

Zedro

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