Trade Setup for AUD/USD
Trade Bias: Bearish with Caution
The broader trend remains bearish based on the 4H chart showing a clear downtrend from late February. However, I notice potential bullish divergence forming as price makes a temporary bottom around 0.6155-0.6160.
Entry Price: 0.6215
Looking at the current price (0.6156), I recommend waiting for a retracement to around 0.6215 for a better entry, which aligns with previous support that should now act as resistance.
Stop Loss: 0.6245
Place stop loss above the recent swing high on the 1H chart to protect against false breakouts while giving sufficient breathing room.
Take Profit Levels:
Take Profit
Primary TP: 0.6140 (previous swing low support)
Extended TP: 0.6100 (psychological level and projected support)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Primary target: 1:2.5 (30 pips risk for 75 pips reward)
Extended target: 1:3.8 (30 pips risk for 115 pips reward)
Trade Rationale:
The 4H chart confirms the strong bearish trend since Feb 21st, where price fell from 0.6400 to current levels
Multiple timeframes align in showing a downtrend, though we're seeing short-term consolidation
The 1H timeframe shows we're near support with some buying interest, suggesting a potential short-term bounce before continuation
Major cryptocurrencies showing bearish pressure (visible in the sidebar) typically correlates with risk-off sentiment affecting AUD
The higher timeframe resistance around 0.6215-0.6220 provides a clear zone for selling opportunities
Additional Considerations:
Consider splitting your position: 50% at primary target and let 50% run for extended target
Monitor price action at 0.6215 for rejection patterns (bearish engulfing, evening star, etc.) to confirm entry
The upcoming RBA interest rate decision or US economic data could impact this pair, so be aware of fundamental catalysts
If price breaks above 0.6245 with conviction, be prepared to reassess the bearish bias
Trade Bias: Bearish with Caution
The broader trend remains bearish based on the 4H chart showing a clear downtrend from late February. However, I notice potential bullish divergence forming as price makes a temporary bottom around 0.6155-0.6160.
Entry Price: 0.6215
Looking at the current price (0.6156), I recommend waiting for a retracement to around 0.6215 for a better entry, which aligns with previous support that should now act as resistance.
Stop Loss: 0.6245
Place stop loss above the recent swing high on the 1H chart to protect against false breakouts while giving sufficient breathing room.
Take Profit Levels:
Take Profit
Primary TP: 0.6140 (previous swing low support)
Extended TP: 0.6100 (psychological level and projected support)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Primary target: 1:2.5 (30 pips risk for 75 pips reward)
Extended target: 1:3.8 (30 pips risk for 115 pips reward)
Trade Rationale:
The 4H chart confirms the strong bearish trend since Feb 21st, where price fell from 0.6400 to current levels
Multiple timeframes align in showing a downtrend, though we're seeing short-term consolidation
The 1H timeframe shows we're near support with some buying interest, suggesting a potential short-term bounce before continuation
Major cryptocurrencies showing bearish pressure (visible in the sidebar) typically correlates with risk-off sentiment affecting AUD
The higher timeframe resistance around 0.6215-0.6220 provides a clear zone for selling opportunities
Additional Considerations:
Consider splitting your position: 50% at primary target and let 50% run for extended target
Monitor price action at 0.6215 for rejection patterns (bearish engulfing, evening star, etc.) to confirm entry
The upcoming RBA interest rate decision or US economic data could impact this pair, so be aware of fundamental catalysts
If price breaks above 0.6245 with conviction, be prepared to reassess the bearish bias
Trade active
Trade closed: stop reached
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.