On the Technical Analysis stand-point, 
AUDUSD has been Consolidating in an Ascending Channel since the beginning of this year after having a sharp decline which started in October last year. Now the past 6 Months, Price Action seems to be forming a strong Continuation Pattern, the Bear Flag!
Based on the Retracement from the Swing High @ .6942 to the Swing Low @ .60872, Price has made a 38.2% Retracement to .64081, resulting in a False Break, pushing Price back into Pattern!
Price has been trading Under the 200 EMA since the start of the "Flagpole" and with the separation between it and the 34 EMA Band, feeds the Bearish Bias after we see Price heavily rejected after touching the 34 EMA Band!
*Once Price makes a Breakout of the Rising Support of the Channel -> Bear Flag Confirmed
*Increase in Volume after Break -> Breakout Validated
If we get a True Breakout that is Validated by the checklist of factors, we could be looking at great opportunities to takeAUDUSD down to the current 5 Year Low of .55063 set back in March 16th 2020 (Initial Outbreak of Covid) based on the Flagpole and Potential Extension of a Valid Break and Retest of the Bear Flag!
Now, Fundamentally what is driving the Weaker Aussie Dollar is the fear of the impact of what the US Tariffs will do to Australia's "Key Trading Partners" being China, Japan and South Korea all being high on the Reciprocal Tariff List. Because of this, the RBA has now priced in 100 Basis Points worth of Rate Cuts to come with the expectations of a "dampened broader outlook for global trade and economic growth."
tradingview.com/news/te_news:453847:0-australian-dollar-falls-amid-global-recession-fears/
Stay Tuned!
AUDUSD has been Consolidating in an Ascending Channel since the beginning of this year after having a sharp decline which started in October last year. Now the past 6 Months, Price Action seems to be forming a strong Continuation Pattern, the Bear Flag!Based on the Retracement from the Swing High @ .6942 to the Swing Low @ .60872, Price has made a 38.2% Retracement to .64081, resulting in a False Break, pushing Price back into Pattern!
Price has been trading Under the 200 EMA since the start of the "Flagpole" and with the separation between it and the 34 EMA Band, feeds the Bearish Bias after we see Price heavily rejected after touching the 34 EMA Band!
*Once Price makes a Breakout of the Rising Support of the Channel -> Bear Flag Confirmed
*Increase in Volume after Break -> Breakout Validated
If we get a True Breakout that is Validated by the checklist of factors, we could be looking at great opportunities to take
AUDUSD down to the current 5 Year Low of .55063 set back in March 16th 2020 (Initial Outbreak of Covid) based on the Flagpole and Potential Extension of a Valid Break and Retest of the Bear Flag!Now, Fundamentally what is driving the Weaker Aussie Dollar is the fear of the impact of what the US Tariffs will do to Australia's "Key Trading Partners" being China, Japan and South Korea all being high on the Reciprocal Tariff List. Because of this, the RBA has now priced in 100 Basis Points worth of Rate Cuts to come with the expectations of a "dampened broader outlook for global trade and economic growth."
tradingview.com/news/te_news:453847:0-australian-dollar-falls-amid-global-recession-fears/
Stay Tuned!
Note
On the Daily Chart, the Bearish Bias also is strengthened by:
- Price Trading Below 200 EMA
- Bullish Volume from Test of Rising Support is Lessening
- Bearish Divergence based from Price Highs and RSI Highs
- RSI Under 50 (Bearish Territory)
Note
Price has satisfied all the requirements to Validate a True Breakout and with that, we can see price is now on its way to Retest the Break of the Rising Support of the Confirmed Bear Flag!
This could generate some great Short Opportunities given the fact that the RSI below 50 and increase in Volume followed the Bearish Breakout of the Ascending Channel.
For All Things Currency,
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For All Things Currency,
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.