The Australian Dollar broke back above the 200-day moving average this week with AUD/USD testing resistance at the 65-handle today. Its decision time for the Aussie as the bulls threaten to breakout of a multi-month range in price.
Aussie is testing resistance today at the 2025 high-close / 61.8% extension of the Friday rally at 6495-6504 with key resistance seen just higher at 63540/50- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September decline and the 100% extension. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a breach / close above would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance. Initial breakout objectives eyed at the September low at 6622 and the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680.
Initial support rests with monthly open / 200-day moving average at 6432/43 and is backed closely by the May open at 6402. Ultimately, a break / close below the April / August lows at 6348/62 would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway towards broader bullish invalidation at 6300- look for larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: Aussie is attempting to mark a fresh yearly high-close today but still shy of uptrend resistance just higher. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance.
-MB
Aussie is testing resistance today at the 2025 high-close / 61.8% extension of the Friday rally at 6495-6504 with key resistance seen just higher at 63540/50- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September decline and the 100% extension. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a breach / close above would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance. Initial breakout objectives eyed at the September low at 6622 and the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680.
Initial support rests with monthly open / 200-day moving average at 6432/43 and is backed closely by the May open at 6402. Ultimately, a break / close below the April / August lows at 6348/62 would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway towards broader bullish invalidation at 6300- look for larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: Aussie is attempting to mark a fresh yearly high-close today but still shy of uptrend resistance just higher. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance.
-MB
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.