Last week, AUDUSD was one of the main beneficiaries of the shift from despair, over Donald Trump's seemingly relentless tariff onslaught at the start of the week, to sheer relief into the Friday close, as the US President paused the tariff start date for 90 days. This move saw AUDUSD rally an impressive 5% from opening levels on Monday at 0.5992 to close the week at 0.6290.
Of course, there was a lot for traders to digest across the week, which included headlines regarding the potential for a fresh round of stimulus from Australia's most important trading partner China, to help support its economy through the escalating trade war with the US. Throw in the fact that traders were short AUDUSD and had to rush to cover these positions in response to the China news, as well as adjusting them again once the narrative shifted to a sell dollar story mid week, and you can see why a 5% rally occurred.
That explains last week's move, but where next for AUDUSD in the week ahead?
Traders again could have a lot to consider, including scheduled events, like the release of the RBA minutes at 0230 BST on Tuesday, which may help to give more context to why the Australian central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the start of April.
China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales are released at 0300 BST on Wednesday. The strength of this data could determine whether a more expansive package of stimulus measures are rolled out to support the economy.
Then it may be back to a dollar focus when US Retail Sales are released at 1330 BST on Wednesday. US consumer sentiment has collapsed at the start of 2025 as inflation and job security concerns dominate their outlook. This release may provide an insight into whether weak sentiment is leading to a pullback in spending, which could be bad news for the US economy and corporate earnings later in the year.
On the unscheduled side of things, tariff news may well be important again as traders try and digest further updates from the US and China, as well as news surrounding potential trade deals that are being negotiated between the US and allies.
Technical Outlook: Back To Important Resistance
While on April 9th AUDUSD posted a new correction low at 0.5914, which was the currency pairs lowest level since the March 2020 covid spike low, the balance of the week saw a sharp recovery in price. This rally, while impressive, only appears to have taken prices back to what might potentially be a strong resistance focus for traders in the week ahead.
Fibonacci retracements calculated on previous declines in price can reflect possible important resistance areas to consider when a price recovery is seen. As such, 0.6308, which is equal to the 38.2% retracement of the weakness seen between September 30th 2024 to April 9th 2025, may be a level to monitor.
As the chart above shows, this morning is seeing this 0.6308 resistance level tested, and how this level is defended on a closing basis in the week ahead could be important.
We also know previous highs in AUDUSD can potentially act as resistance levels. This suggests the 3 price failure highs at 0.6389 (April 3rd), 0.6391 (March 17th) and 0.6408 (February 21st) could be important and may possibly add to the strength of resistance just above current levels.
The next possible directional price moves may depend on how the 0.6308 to 0.6408 resistance range is defended on a closing basis.
What if The Resistance Area is Broken?
Of course, resistance up to the 0.6408 level currently remains intact and further significant buying may be required to prompt a successful upside closing break, however, while not a guarantee of future price strength, closes above 0.6408 might be an indication that potential is turning towards further attempts at upside, in which case the next resistance might then be 0.6549, which is equal to the higher 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
What if The Resistance Area Caps the Upside?
While the 0.6308/0.6408 resistance area remains intact, it’s possible it can turn directional risks lower again. If AUDUSD prices do turn down it might be that closing breaks of support at 0.6161, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest strength, are required to suggest a deeper phase of price weakness.
Such activity while not confirming a more extended decline in price, might lead to tests of 0.6114, even deeper corrections towards 0.6067, the respective 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Of course, there was a lot for traders to digest across the week, which included headlines regarding the potential for a fresh round of stimulus from Australia's most important trading partner China, to help support its economy through the escalating trade war with the US. Throw in the fact that traders were short AUDUSD and had to rush to cover these positions in response to the China news, as well as adjusting them again once the narrative shifted to a sell dollar story mid week, and you can see why a 5% rally occurred.
That explains last week's move, but where next for AUDUSD in the week ahead?
Traders again could have a lot to consider, including scheduled events, like the release of the RBA minutes at 0230 BST on Tuesday, which may help to give more context to why the Australian central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the start of April.
China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales are released at 0300 BST on Wednesday. The strength of this data could determine whether a more expansive package of stimulus measures are rolled out to support the economy.
Then it may be back to a dollar focus when US Retail Sales are released at 1330 BST on Wednesday. US consumer sentiment has collapsed at the start of 2025 as inflation and job security concerns dominate their outlook. This release may provide an insight into whether weak sentiment is leading to a pullback in spending, which could be bad news for the US economy and corporate earnings later in the year.
On the unscheduled side of things, tariff news may well be important again as traders try and digest further updates from the US and China, as well as news surrounding potential trade deals that are being negotiated between the US and allies.
Technical Outlook: Back To Important Resistance
While on April 9th AUDUSD posted a new correction low at 0.5914, which was the currency pairs lowest level since the March 2020 covid spike low, the balance of the week saw a sharp recovery in price. This rally, while impressive, only appears to have taken prices back to what might potentially be a strong resistance focus for traders in the week ahead.
Fibonacci retracements calculated on previous declines in price can reflect possible important resistance areas to consider when a price recovery is seen. As such, 0.6308, which is equal to the 38.2% retracement of the weakness seen between September 30th 2024 to April 9th 2025, may be a level to monitor.
As the chart above shows, this morning is seeing this 0.6308 resistance level tested, and how this level is defended on a closing basis in the week ahead could be important.
We also know previous highs in AUDUSD can potentially act as resistance levels. This suggests the 3 price failure highs at 0.6389 (April 3rd), 0.6391 (March 17th) and 0.6408 (February 21st) could be important and may possibly add to the strength of resistance just above current levels.
The next possible directional price moves may depend on how the 0.6308 to 0.6408 resistance range is defended on a closing basis.
What if The Resistance Area is Broken?
Of course, resistance up to the 0.6408 level currently remains intact and further significant buying may be required to prompt a successful upside closing break, however, while not a guarantee of future price strength, closes above 0.6408 might be an indication that potential is turning towards further attempts at upside, in which case the next resistance might then be 0.6549, which is equal to the higher 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
What if The Resistance Area Caps the Upside?
While the 0.6308/0.6408 resistance area remains intact, it’s possible it can turn directional risks lower again. If AUDUSD prices do turn down it might be that closing breaks of support at 0.6161, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest strength, are required to suggest a deeper phase of price weakness.
Such activity while not confirming a more extended decline in price, might lead to tests of 0.6114, even deeper corrections towards 0.6067, the respective 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.